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LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $133, high $237, with mid-point at $183.
Stock analysis

LRCX fair value $133–$237

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-08Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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Prezzo
$295.15
▼ -111.67 (-37.84%)
Valore equo
$183
$133–$237
Valutazione
Vendere
confidence 87/100
Potenziale rialzo
-37.8%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$155.96
MoS level · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$369.1B
P/E fwd 37.3
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $183 with high case $237.
  • Implied downside of 37.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 87/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$183
Margin of safety
-60.9%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$295.16Price
Low $132.71
Mid $183.48
High $237.3

LRCX trades against a final fair-value range of $132.71-$237.30, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible Assets
    Intangible Assets
  • Switching Costs
    Switching Costs
  • Bull thesis
    internal valuation cross-checks of $310.47 relies on ungrounded perpetual multiple expansion.

§2 Scenario ribassista

A severe stress test incorporating a 30% reduction to next-year internal valuation cross-checks revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. and structurally lower terminal margins drops fair valueFair valueOur composite estimate of intrinsic per-share value, blended across DCF, exit-multiple, and reverse-DCF methods. Reported as a low/mid/high range to capture model uncertainty. toward the $130 level. This highlights the extreme fragility of the current high multiples assigned by the market, which completely ignore inherent downcycle risks.

Come questa tesi può fallire

Prolonged Memory Downturn

· Medium

Extended reduction in NAND and DRAM capex significantly depresses equipment sales and margins beyond modeled downcycle parameters.

FV impact
Downside to $132.71
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Export Controls

Low-Medium· Low

Complete ban on trailing-edge and advanced equipment sales to China abruptly eliminates a major high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
Downside below $100.00
Trigger
6-12 months

Advanced Packaging Share Loss

· Low

Competitors dominate next-generation advanced packaging and gate-all-around deposition transitions, permanently eroding Lam's market share.

FV impact
Downside to $150.00
Trigger
36-48 months
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Deceleration in deferred revenue growth or service attach rates.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major memory customers aggressively cutting near-term capex guidance.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Ramp-up in export restriction rhetoric from the US government.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Margin compression signaling price competition in trailing-edge tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising inventory days signaling a severe industry downcycle.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi
VoceT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periodo2022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
Ricavi$17.23B$17.43B$14.91B$18.44B+2.3%
Utile lordo$7.87B$7.78B$7.05B$8.98B+4.5%
Reddito operativo$5.38B$5.22B$4.28B$5.90B+3.1%
Utile netto$4.61B$4.51B$3.83B$5.36B+5.2%
EPS (diluito)$3.28$3.32$2.90$4.15+8.2%
EBITDA$5.71B$5.64B$4.91B$6.52B+4.5%
R&S$1.60B$1.73B$1.90B$2.10B+9.3%
SG&A$885.7M$832.8M$868.2M$981.7M+3.5%

Punteggi di qualità

Piotroski F-score
8 / 9
Composito qualità 0–9
Altman Z-score
23.45
Rischio di fallimento (>3 sicuro)
Beneish M-score
-2.36
Rischio di manipolazione degli utili
OCF / Utile netto
1.15×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Pass
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
33.8%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Sezione 3

Numbers analysis

Flusso di cassa

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocazione del capitale

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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BALANCE SHEET FAQ

LRCX balance sheet questions

  1. LRCX (LRCX)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.

FAQ

LRCX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LRCX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $295 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $183 (range $133–$237), which implies roughly 37.8% downside to the midpoint.

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