Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
Lululemon remains a high-quality compounder with exceptional ROIC (25.8%) and solid operating margins (20%+). However, a near-term growth digestion phase—evidenced by expected negative EPS growth in the current year—requires anchoring revenue and earnings to realistic lower-single digit growth paths before assuming trend stabilization. Fair value range: low $182, high $282, with mid-point at $228.
Stock analysis

LULU fair value $182–$282

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-19Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-19Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
Prezzo
$119.22
▲ +109.26 (+91.65%)
Valore equo
$228
$182–$282
Valutazione
Acquisto forte
confidence 82/100
Potenziale rialzo
+91.7%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$194.21
MoS level · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$14.3B
P/E fwd 9.0
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Market implies a pessimistic -4.5% perpetual growth, creating a deep discount for a 25.8% ROIC compounder.
  • Clean accounting and robust cash conversion (OCF/NI > 1.0) provide strong fundamental downside support.
  • Extreme peer PEG dispersion justifies isolating core intrinsic cash generation models.
Fair value
$228
Margin of safety
+47.8%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$119.22Price
Low $181.93
Mid $228.48
High $281.62

Lululemon remains a high-quality compounder with exceptional ROIC (25.8%) and solid operating margins (20%+). However, a near-term growth digestion phase—evidenced by expected negative EPS growth in the current year—requires anchoring revenue and earnings to realistic lower-single digit growth paths before assuming trend stabilization.

  • Intangible brand equity
    Intangible brand equity
  • Direct-to-consumer distribution scale
    Direct-to-consumer distribution scale
  • Cycle upside
    Consumer demand for premium athleisure remains structurally robust, and international market penetration accelerates rapidly.

§2 Scenario ribassista

A severe recession combined with an accelerated shift in athleisure trends could force elevated markdowns, permanently impairing gross margins and compressing ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. toward the cost of capital.

Come questa tesi può fallire

DTC Moat Erosion

· High

Upstart competitors successfully bifurcate the premium athleisure market, forcing sustained promotional activity and driving gross margins structurally below 50%.

FV impact
Severe
Trigger
12-24 months

International Stagnation

· Medium

China expansion falters due to geopolitical friction or domestic preference, permanently removing the primary long-term growth engine from the terminal valuation.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
24-36 months

Macro Demand Shock

· Low

Prolonged consumer discretionary weakness stalls the men's category growth and causes consecutive quarters of negative comparable store sales in North America.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
6-12 months
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Consecutive quarters of declining gross marginsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Inventory growth substantially outpacing sales growthMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sustained weakness in direct-to-consumer channel conversionMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative comparable store sales in core North American marketsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Unplanned executive turnover in merchandising or supply chainMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi
VoceT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periodo2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Ricavi$6.26B$8.11B$9.62B$10.59B$11.10B+15.4%
Utile lordo$3.61B$4.49B$5.61B$6.27B$6.28B+14.9%
Reddito operativo$1.37B$1.73B$2.21B$2.51B$2.21B+12.6%
Utile netto$975.3M$854.8M$1.55B$1.81B$1.58B+12.8%
EPS (diluito)$7.49$6.68$12.20$14.64$13.26+15.3%
EBITDA$1.60B$2.02B$2.59B$2.95B$2.71B+14.1%
R&S——————
SG&A$2.23B$2.76B$3.40B$3.76B$4.07B+16.3%

Punteggi di qualità

OCF / Utile netto
1.02×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Fail
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
25.8%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Sezione 3

Numbers analysis

Flusso di cassa

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocazione del capitale

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Report completo per ogni ticker coperto
24 mesi di archivio rating
Briefing della watchlist + avvisi di variazione del rating
Esportazione PDF + DOCX in qualsiasi lingua
Inizia la prova gratuita
Annulla in qualsiasi momento.
FAQ

LULU — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, LULU looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $119 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $228 (range $182–$282), which implies roughly 91.7% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of LULU also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder