Analisi facoltativa del prodotto
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International and services growth could extend the earnings runway.
International Markets revenue growth falls below 6% in FY2028.
Hold. The report was prepared at $579.21, below Fair value of $621.75 and Potential value of $782.35.3
The main risk is slower international growth after FY2027. A breach of the FY2028 growth floor would shorten the earnings runway and reduce what investors pay for future profit.
International scale and a material services line could extend revenue growth. FY2025 free cash flow and low capex provide distribution capacity, while higher still require diluted shares to keep falling.
Payment Network revenue reached $19.48 billion in FY2025, showing substantial coordination across both sides of the payment system.5
Services generated $13.32 billion in FY2025, but product revenue alone does not establish contract duration, retention, or replacement costs.5
A close global network competitor exists, while the other selected peers use materially different processing, lending, or banking models.
Hold because supported upside remains visible, but post-FY2027 growth duration needs further operating proof.
Services and other solutions. Its services and other solutions, which are interdependent with its payment network, drive value for its customers and the broader payments ecosystem. Mastercard Incorporated offers security solutions, consumer acquisition and engagement, business and market insights, digital and authentication, processing and gateway and other solutions (including ACH batch and real-time account-based payments and solutions and open finance).
Mastercard Incorporated provides a wide variety of products and services that support payment products that customers can offer to consumers and merchants to enable purchase transactions, cash withdrawals and cash advances. These offerings facilitate transactions across its payment network and platforms among account holders, merchants, financial institutions, digital partners, businesses, governments and other organizations in markets globally.
Growth-duration, margin, repurchase, and required-return stresses are standalone outcomes and should not be added together.
This path would shorten earnings growth, weaken per-share compounding, and cause investors to pay less for future profit. It is disconfirmed if the stated FY2027 and FY2028 operating tests hold.
FY2028 international growth falls below 6%, shortening the premium growth period.
Core pricing or service costs hold operating margin below 55% for two fiscal years.
I cinque sviluppi che indebolirebbero la nostra tesi d'investimento.
If international growth weakens past this point, the larger geography would no longer support the longer revenue runway. Lower future sales growth would reduce expected earnings and may lead investors to pay less for those earnings.
Attuale:FY2025 filing: $18.75 billion
Avviso seBelow 6% in FY2028
FY2025 Payment Network revenue was $19.48 billion, and the peer set identifies one close global network competitor. These facts support scale, but not direct proof of customer switching costs.
Services adds breadth, but its disclosed size does not prove strong customer retention or superior margins. Its structural contribution remains conditional on outgrowing the core network.
FY2025 operating income was $19.51 billion on $32.79 billion of revenue. This demonstrates strong operating economics, but it does not alone prove the duration of returns above capital costs.3
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($621.75). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $17.5B after modeled capex of $489.0M, with terminal value at 68.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The base path assumes annual forecasts remain firm and operating margin stays at or above its accepted floor. It weakens if FY2027 diluted shares exceed 906 million or FY2028 international growth falls below its accepted floor.
Rising annual forecasts would strengthen near-term earnings visibility.
Stable forecasts would leave the established thesis unchanged.
Falling forecasts would weaken the expected growth path.
FY2025 operating cash exceeded reported profit, supporting the link between earnings and cash generation.3
FY2025 operating cash was $17.40 billion and free cash flow was $16.91 billion. The small gap reflects low physical capital needs and supports the cash-based investment case.34
Debt was $19.0 billion versus $10.57 billion of cash in FY2025. Stock compensation of $597 million means future share reduction remains conditional, not automatic.
FY2025 operating income and low physical investment show strong operating economics, but those observations do not establish a return-on-invested-capital trend.
The dated WACC was 8.0601% on September 8, 2026. No ROIC comparison is asserted from the supplied operating figures alone.
FY2025 free cash flow was $16.91 billion, while capital spending was $489 million.
Most operating cash can support distributions, debt management, or reinvestment rather than physical asset replacement.
Diluted average shares fell from 946 million in FY2023 to 906 million in FY2025.
Continued net repurchases would let earnings per share grow faster than companywide profit, provided issuance does not offset purchases.
| Ricavi | 32.791.000.000 USD |
|---|---|
| Costo del venduto | 0 USD |
| Utile lordo | 32.791.000.000 USD |
| Costi operativi | 13.277.000.000 USD |
| Reddito operativo | 19.514.000.000 USD |
| Voci non operative e imposte | -4.546.000.000 USD |
| Utile netto | 14.968.000.000 USD |
| Attività totali | 54.157.000.000 USD |
|---|---|
| Disponibilità liquide | 10.566.000.000 USD |
| Attività correnti | 23.558.000.000 USD |
| Passività totali | 46.411.000.000 USD |
| Passività correnti | 22.762.000.000 USD |
| Patrimonio netto | 7.746.000.000 USD |
| Utile netto | 8.687.000.000 USD |
|---|---|
| Afflusso operativo | 9.686.000.000 USD |
| Ammortamenti e svalutazioni | 726.000.000 USD |
| Compensi basati su azioni | 273.000.000 USD |
| Flusso di cassa operativo | 9.463.000.000 USD |
| Deflusso operativo | 223.000.000 USD |
| Liquidità disponibile | 19.576.000.000 USD |
| Liquidità iniziale | 10.113.000.000 USD |
| Deflusso da investimenti | 5.272.000.000 USD |
| Capex | 814.000.000 USD |
| Altre attività di investimento | 4.458.000.000 USD |
| Deflusso da finanziamenti | 6.555.000.000 USD |
| Dividendi pagati | 1.741.000.000 USD |
| Altre attività di finanziamento | 4.814.000.000 USD |
| Effetto dei tassi di cambio | 328.000.000 USD |
| Liquidità finale | 7.421.000.000 USD |
| Flusso da investimenti | -5.272.000.000 USD |
| Flusso da finanziamenti | -6.555.000.000 USD |
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Depositato 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
| Ricavi per categoria di attività | Ricavi | Quota | a/a |
|---|---|---|---|
| Payment Network | 19,5 Mld USD | 59,4% | 12,4% |
| Value Added Services And Solutions | 13,3 Mld USD | 40,6% | 22,9% |
Fonte: SEC EDGAR · Depositato 2026-02-11 · SEC EDGAR
| Ricavi per area geografica | Ricavi | Quota | a/a |
|---|---|---|---|
| International Markets | 18,7 Mld USD | 57,2% | 18,7% |
| Americas | 14 Mld USD | 42,8% | 13,5% |
Dati finanziari puntuali utilizzati nell’analisi del 2026-09-08.
| Periodo | Ricavi | EBITDA | Utile netto | Flusso di cassa operativo | Flusso di cassa libero | Capex | Ammortamenti e svalutazioni | Compensi basati su azioni | Riacquisti di azioni | Dividendi pagati | Emissione netta di debito | Flusso da investimenti | Flusso da finanziamenti | Liquidità iniziale | Liquidità finale | Liquidità e investimenti | Debito totale | Margine operativo | ROIC | WACC | Differenziale ROIC−WACC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | 10,8 Mld USD | 6,1 Mld USD | 4,1 Mld USD | 4,5 Mld USD | 4,1 Mld USD | 382 Mln USD | 373 Mln USD | 101 Mln USD | — | 837 Mln USD | — | -1,2 Mld USD | -2,3 Mld USD | — | 6,7 Mld USD | 8,3 Mld USD | 5,2 Mld USD | 53,5% | — | 6,6% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | 12,5 Mld USD | 7,1 Mld USD | 3,9 Mld USD | 5,6 Mld USD | 5,1 Mld USD | 423 Mln USD | 437 Mln USD | 176 Mln USD | — | 942 Mln USD | — | -1,8 Mld USD | -4,8 Mld USD | 6,7 Mld USD | 5,9 Mld USD | 7,8 Mld USD | 5,4 Mld USD | 53,0% | — | 6,6% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | 15 Mld USD | 7,8 Mld USD | 5,9 Mld USD | 6,2 Mld USD | 5,7 Mld USD | 504 Mln USD | 459 Mln USD | 196 Mln USD | — | 1 Mld USD | — | -506 Mln USD | -5 Mld USD | 5,9 Mld USD | 6,7 Mld USD | 8,4 Mld USD | 6,3 Mld USD | 48,7% | — | 6,7% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | 16,9 Mld USD | 10,5 Mld USD | 8,1 Mld USD | 8,2 Mld USD | 7,5 Mld USD | 728 Mln USD | 522 Mln USD | 250 Mln USD | — | 1,3 Mld USD | — | -1,6 Mld USD | -5,9 Mld USD | 6,7 Mld USD | 7 Mld USD | 7,7 Mld USD | 9,9 Mld USD | 57,2% | — | 5,8% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | 15,3 Mld USD | 8,7 Mld USD | 6,4 Mld USD | 7,2 Mld USD | 6,5 Mld USD | 708 Mln USD | 580 Mln USD | 254 Mln USD | — | 1,6 Mld USD | — | -1,9 Mld USD | -2,2 Mld USD | 7 Mld USD | 10,1 Mld USD | 10,6 Mld USD | 12,7 Mld USD | 52,8% | — | 4,9% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | 18,9 Mld USD | 11,5 Mld USD | 8,7 Mld USD | 9,5 Mld USD | 8,6 Mld USD | 814 Mln USD | 726 Mln USD | 273 Mln USD | — | 1,7 Mld USD | — | -5,3 Mld USD | -6,6 Mld USD | 10,1 Mld USD | 7,4 Mld USD | 7,9 Mld USD | 13,9 Mld USD | 53,4% | — | 5,2% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 22,2 Mld USD | 13 Mld USD | 9,9 Mld USD | 11,2 Mld USD | 10,1 Mld USD | 1,1 Mld USD | 750 Mln USD | 295 Mln USD | 8,8 Mld USD | 1,9 Mld USD | 399 Mln USD | -1,5 Mld USD | -10,3 Mld USD | 9,9 Mld USD | 7 Mld USD | 7,4 Mld USD | 14 Mld USD | 57,2% | — | 7,8% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 25,1 Mld USD | 15 Mld USD | 11,2 Mld USD | 12 Mld USD | 11,6 Mld USD | 371 Mln USD | 799 Mln USD | 460 Mln USD | 9 Mld USD | 2,2 Mld USD | 1,6 Mld USD | -1,4 Mld USD | -9,5 Mld USD | 9,2 Mld USD | 8,6 Mld USD | 9,2 Mld USD | 15,7 Mld USD | 58,3% | — | 7,8% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 28,2 Mld USD | 16,8 Mld USD | 12,9 Mld USD | 14,8 Mld USD | 14,3 Mld USD | 474 Mln USD | 897 Mln USD | 526 Mln USD | 11 Mld USD | 2,4 Mld USD | 2,6 Mld USD | -3,4 Mld USD | -10,8 Mld USD | 10,5 Mld USD | 8,4 Mld USD | 8,8 Mld USD | 18,2 Mld USD | 58,0% | — | 8,4% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 32,8 Mld USD | 20,4 Mld USD | 15 Mld USD | 17,4 Mld USD | 16,9 Mld USD | 489 Mln USD | 2,1 Mld USD | 597 Mln USD | 11,7 Mld USD | 2,8 Mld USD | 492 Mln USD | -1,4 Mld USD | -14,2 Mld USD | 10,8 Mld USD | 10,6 Mld USD | 10,9 Mld USD | 19 Mld USD | 59,5% | — | 7,9% | — |
Mastercard Incorporated (MA) trades at 25.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 15.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 23.4x compares with a peer median of 15.1x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Visa Inc., PayPal Holdings Inc., American Express Company and JPMorgan Chase & Co., as of 2026-09-07 to 2026-09-08.
Industry capital spending equals 2.4% of revenue, while capital spending to depreciation is 0.9. These September 2026 benchmarks indicate restrained physical investment.
Annual FY2026 and FY2027 revenue forecasts rose after the July event. That supports a near-term demand-led upswing, but persistence still depends on reported revenue meeting those forecasts.
A down-cycle would be visible through slower Payment Network growth or lower consolidated margin. Because the network is the largest disclosed product line, either outcome would weigh heavily on sales and profit.
International Markets generated $18.75 billion versus $14.04 billion in the Americas during FY2025. This breadth supports growth duration but adds currency and jurisdiction exposure.5
Existing allocation only; no new percentage is prescribed. The Hold view reflects limited upside to Fair value and material post-FY2027 uncertainty. Maintain exposure only within an existing diversified allocation.
Keep the position unchanged unless operating evidence improves. A breach of any stated growth, margin, or share-count threshold should prompt review before continued exposure.
Cash generation and declining shares support continued ownership, but the valuation gap is not large enough to justify increasing exposure.4
Defer a new position until services growth, international duration, and repurchase capacity receive stronger FY2027 or FY2028 confirmation.
Maintain only an existing allocation because the premium forward valuation remains sensitive to small changes in growth duration.3
Hold existing shares; do not increase exposure at the report-date price.
Fair value is $621.75 versus the $579.21 report-date price, leaving supported upside but limited room for long-duration forecast errors.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
FY2027 diluted shares exceed 906 million, removing the repurchase-led earnings boost.
The moderate cost of equity rises above 10.2394%, compressing long-duration value.
A sustained margin breach would indicate weaker network pricing or higher service costs. Less operating profit from each revenue dollar would reduce earnings and cash while weakening evidence that the franchise can sustain premium economics.
Attuale:FY2025: $19.51 billion operating income on $32.79 billion revenue
Avviso seBelow 55% for two fiscal years
A rising share count would show that repurchases no longer offset issuance. Earnings would then be spread across more shares, removing an important source of per-share growth even if revenue remains positive.
Attuale:FY2025: 906 million
Avviso seAbove 906 million in FY2027
A higher required return lowers the present value of distant cash flows even when operating forecasts are unchanged, making the valuation more sensitive to long-duration assumptions.
Attuale:September 8, 2026: 8.2394%
Avviso seAbove 10.2394% within 12 months
If services no longer outgrow the network, the second growth engine would stop extending the revenue runway. Consolidated growth would likely fade sooner, weakening the earnings path beyond FY2027.
Attuale:FY2025 services revenue: $13.32 billion
Avviso seGrowth spread at or below zero in FY2027 or FY2028
| Services competition weakens growth or raises delivery costs. | medium | FY2027 through FY2028 | The services line is already material, but mitigation requires it to outgrow Payment Network without sustained margin damage.5 |
Limitation: Terminal value is 70.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Under the moderate discount rate, 204 USD comes from forecast-period earnings and 451 USD from the long-term value, totaling 655 USD.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 68.2% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Upside persists if international growth stays above its accepted FY2028 floor and services outgrows Payment Network through FY2028. Falling services growth relative to the network would disconfirm this path.5
Pressure lowers profit and cash generation.3
Lagging services shortens the growth runway.5
Higher shares reduce earnings per share.4
Cuts would weaken near-term sales and earnings.1
| FY2035 |
|---|
| Revenue | $37.26B | $41.97B | $46.38B | $50.55B | $54.34B | $57.87B | $61.23B | $64.42B | $67.38B | $70.07B |
| Operating income | $22.54B | $25.39B | $28.06B | $30.58B | $32.88B | $35.01B | $37.04B | $38.97B | $40.76B | $42.39B |
| NOPAT | $18.54B | $20.88B | $23.07B | $25.15B | $27.03B | $28.79B | $30.46B | $32.05B | $33.52B | $34.86B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $18.54B | $20.88B | $23.07B | $25.15B | $27.03B | $28.79B | $30.46B | $32.05B | $33.52B | $34.86B |
| Revenue growth | 13.6% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% |
| Operating margin | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% | 60.5% |
| Tax rate | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% | 17.8% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Margine |
|---|
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | $507.4B | 25.3x | 14.5x | 23.4x | 241.2% | — |
| V | Visa Inc. | 25.0x | 15.7x | 22.5x | 61.2% | 66.1% | |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings Inc. | 9.5x | 1.4x | 7.7x | 24.5% | 17.0% | |
| AXP | American Express Company | 16.2x | 3.1x | 34.4% | 20.3% | ||
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 14.3x | 5.1x | 17.8% | 50.4% |
| FY2027 diluted share count | At or above 906 million | Reassess the Hold because the expected repurchase contribution to earnings per share would be absent. |
