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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
MDLZ — frequently asked questions
Is Mondelez International, Inc. overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-05-20, MDLZ looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 61,3 USD versus our fair value of 70,1 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 86,0 USD. That implies roughly 14.4% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, gives MDLZ a fair value of 70,1 USD and a potential value of 86,0 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for Mondelez International, Inc.'s archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy MDLZ now?
Our latest published rating for MDLZ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy. Mondelez International, Inc. looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 61,3 USD versus fair value of 70,1 USD; potential value is 86,0 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for MDLZ?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-05-20 documents Mondelez International, Inc.'s material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is MDLZ's rating?
Our latest published rating for MDLZ, analyzed 2026-05-20, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 9/10 (Wide). It reflects our fair value of 70,1 USD, the potential value of 86,0 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (61,3 USD).
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§1 SintesiEN
Risposta in 30 secondiBuy
Prezzo rispetto al valore
Prezzo
$61.29
Fair value
$70.11
Valore potenziale
$86.01
Al
Data della quotazione non registrata
Perché può funzionare
Bull: Pricing power allows Mondelez to fully offset commodity inflation while driving volume expansion in emerging markets, leading to structurally higher operating margins and a valuation re-rating toward 22x earnings.
Cosa cambierebbe la nostra valutazione
Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion: Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.
Mondelez is a premier global snacking compounder characterized by iconic brands, deep distribution moats, and resilient cash flow generation. The business offers moderate but highly visible growth.
Mondelez is a premier global snacking compounder characterized by iconic brands, deep distribution moats, and resilient cash flow generation. The business offers moderate but highly visible growth.
Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury,
Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz)
Unmatched global distribution scale
Unmatched global distribution scale
Cycle upside
Consumer resilience allows dominant brands to retain elevated pricing even as input costs normalize, driving outsized margin expansion.
Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The company provides biscuits and baked snacks, including cookies, crackers, salted snacks, snack bars, and cakes and pastries; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese, grocery, and powdered beverage products. Its brand portfolio includes Oreo, Ritz, LU, CLIF Bar, Tate's Bake Shop biscuits and baked snacks, Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, and Toblerone chocolate. It serves supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, distribution centers, third-party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents. The company also sells products directly to businesses and consumers through e-retail platforms, retailer digital platforms, as well as through its direct-to-consumer websites and social media platforms. Mondelez International, Inc. was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc. and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc. in October 2012. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
§2 Scenario ribassistaEN
Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growth. In this scenario, the market violently re-rates the terminal multiple down to 15x as structural growth assumptions deteriorate.
Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growth, dropping the multiple to 15x.
Come questa tesi può fallire
Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion
Medium
Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.
FV impact
-15% to intrinsic value
Trigger
12 to 24 months
Private Label Defection
Medium
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
I cinque sviluppi che indebolirebbero la nostra tesi d'investimento.
Falling cash conversion would indicate earnings are no longer backed by actual cash collections, straining the aggressive capital distribution strategy and forcing reliance on balance sheet leverage to sustain corporate capital returns.
Attuale:1.842 as of 2026-05-20
Avviso seDrops below 1.0x for two consecutive quarters
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($67.17). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
Pricing power allows Mondelez to fully offset commodity inflation while driving volume expansion in emerging markets, leading to structurally higher operating margins and a valuation re-rating toward 22x earnings.
Warning level: Drops below 1.0x for two consecutive quarters. Falling cash conversion would indicate earnings are no longer backed by actual cash collections, straining the aggressive capital distribution strategy and forcing reliance on balance sheet leverage to sustain corporate capital returns.
MDLZ trades at 18.1x forward earnings against a peer median of 23.5x; EV/EBITDA of 18.9x against a peer median of 22.9x; 6 peers.
§10 Settore e cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Expansion
Maintenance capex consistently mirrors depreciation at roughly 3.3% of revenue, meaning the enterprise requires minimal incremental capital to sustain baseline volumes.
Ciclo rialzista
Consumer resilience allows dominant brands to retain elevated pricing even as input costs normalize, driving outsized margin expansion.
Maintenance capex consistently mirrors depreciation at roughly 3.3% of revenue, meaning the enterprise requires minimal incremental capital to sustain baseline volumes.
§11 Gestione della posizioneEN
Dimensionamento
Appropriate as a core anchor holding within defensive or dividend-focused equity portfolios.
Rischio
Trim exposure aggressively if valuation touches the $86.01 bull scenario boundary or if organic volumes contract for three consecutive quarters.
Tranche di ingresso
Livello
Azione
Perché
Current / pullbacks
The current $61.29 price level adequately discounts implied growth expectations, offering a safe accumulation point.
The current $61.29 price level adequately discounts implied growth expectations, offering a safe accumulation point.
Tranche di uscita
Livello
Azione
Thesis break
Trim exposure aggressively if valuation touches the $86.01 bull scenario boundary or if organic volumes contract for three consecutive quarters.
§12 Prospettive degli investitoriEN
Bull view
Buy
We assign a Buy rating based on the significant disconnect between current pricing and the firm's highly resilient, cash-generative fundamental baseline.
Base view
Buy
At $61.29, market expectations imply a 2.14% terminal growth rate—materially lower than our conservative 3.12% forward estimates. This spread provides a distinct, quantifiable margin of safety. Tightly triangulated FCFF ($67) and moat-fade models ($66) confirm the baseline intrinsic value solidly exceeds current trading levels.
§14 Raccomandazione finaleEN
Azione
Comprare
We assign a Buy rating based on the significant disconnect between current pricing and the firm's highly resilient, cash-generative fundamental baseline.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
§15Your notes
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Contracting top-line revenues would signal widespread consumer defection to private label alternatives and severe pricing elasticity limits, undermining core brand equity and structural category expansion across international snack markets.
Attuale:5.8% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Avviso seDeclines below 0.0% over a trailing twelve-month period
Severe margin erosion would demonstrate an inability to pass along cocoa and commodity inflation through retail pricing adjustments, dismantling core unit economics and impairing operating profitability across major confectionery divisions.
Attuale:28.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Avviso seCompresses by more than 150 basis points year-over-year in any fiscal year
Operating deleverage indicates rising structural overhead costs and uncompensated commercial spending, undermining corporate earnings power and compounding the negative impact of raw material cost inflation on bottom-line profitability.
Attuale:9.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Avviso seFalls below 8.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Distributing more cash to shareholders than generated by operations would exhaust discretionary capital, forcing management to fund shareholder dividends with external debt and endangering the company's investment-grade balance sheet.
Attuale:97.5% as of 2026-05-20
Avviso seBreaches 100.0% of free cash flow over a four-quarter period
medium
Monitor
Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints.
The enterprise achieves moderate but highly visible growth. A tightly constrained 18x exit multiple accounts for macro headwinds, while exceptional cash flow conversion fully sustains the heavy dividend payout structure.
Attuale5.8% for the period ended 2025-12-31
Perché è importante
Warning level: Declines below 0.0% over a trailing twelve-month period. Contracting top-line revenues would signal widespread consumer defection to private label alternatives and severe pricing elasticity limits, undermining core brand equity and structural category expansion across international snack markets.
Warning level: Compresses by more than 150 basis points year-over-year in any fiscal year. Severe margin erosion would demonstrate an inability to pass along cocoa and commodity inflation through retail pricing adjustments, dismantling core unit economics and impairing operating profitability across major confectionery divisions.
Warning level: Falls below 8.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Operating deleverage indicates rising structural overhead costs and uncompensated commercial spending, undermining corporate earnings power and compounding the negative impact of raw material cost inflation on bottom-line profitability.
Warning level: Breaches 100.0% of free cash flow over a four-quarter period. Distributing more cash to shareholders than generated by operations would exhaust discretionary capital, forcing management to fund shareholder dividends with external debt and endangering the company's investment-grade balance sheet.
