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MPWR trades against a final fair-value range of $445.50-$897.61, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $446, high $898, with mid-point at $670.
Stock analysis

MPWR fair value $446–$898

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-10Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Growth infrastructure
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Prezzo
$1600.84
▼ -930.38 (-58.12%)
Valore equo
$670
$446–$898
Valutazione
Vendere
confidence 48/100
Potenziale rialzo
-58.1%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$569.89
MoS level · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$78.6B
P/E fwd 53.1
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $670 with high case $898.
  • Implied downside of 58.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 48/100 · Growth infrastructure.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$670
Margin of safety
-138.8%
Confidence
48/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$1,600.84Price
Low $445.5
Mid $670.46
High $897.61

MPWR trades against a final fair-value range of $445.50-$897.61, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Process IP in high-density power
    Process IP in high-density power management
  • Deep integration into next-gen AI
    Deep integration into next-gen AI server racks
  • Cycle upside
    Hyper-growth phase fueled by generation-defining AI infrastructure build-outs and electrification.

§2 Scenario ribassista

A cyclical downturn coinciding with multiple compression breaks momentum. If long-term revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible. fades to 3% without extreme margin expansion, intrinsic valueIntrinsic valueThe discounted present value of all cash a business will produce over its remaining life. The theoretical anchor for fair value, computed in practice as a range across explicit assumptions. violently resets toward our $422 cross-check floor.

Come questa tesi può fallire

AI Capex Plateau

· High

Hyperscaler data center spending normalizes, sharply curtailing demand for high-end power management ICs.

FV impact
Downside to $445 floor

Margin Mean Reversion

· Medium

Intensified competition from legacy analog peers compresses operating margins below historical 32% bounds.

FV impact
Significant multiple contraction

Valuation Reality Check

· High

Macro conditions trigger a strict repricing of hyper-growth multiples, collapsing the forward P/E back to a 25x terminal assumption.

FV impact
Convergence to $670 base fair value
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Book-to-bill ratio falling below 1.0MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue exceeding 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Hyperscaler capex growth turning negativeMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins retreating below 30%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Slowing EV penetration rates reducing automotive semiconductor TAMMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi
VoceT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periodo2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
Ricavi$1.21B$1.79B$1.82B$2.21B$2.79B+23.3%
Utile lordo$685.5M$1.05B$1.02B$1.22B$1.54B+22.4%
Reddito operativo$262.4M$526.8M$481.7M$539.4M$728.6M+29.1%
Utile netto$242.0M$437.7M$427.4M$1.59B$621.5M+26.6%
EPS (diluito)$5.05$9.05$8.76$36.59$12.86+26.3%
EBITDA$291.1M$563.9M$521.9M$575.8M$781.1M+28.0%
R&S$190.6M$240.2M$263.6M$324.7M$382.3M+19.0%
SG&A$232.4M$281.6M$275.7M$356.8M$428.8M+16.5%

Punteggi di qualità

OCF / Utile netto
1.35×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Fail
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
16.2%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Sezione 3

Numbers analysis

Flusso di cassa

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocazione del capitale

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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CASH FLOW FAQ

MPWR cash flow questions

  1. Free cash flow for MPWR (MPWR) is computed as operating cash flow minus capital expenditure. We report both the absolute level and the FCF margin against revenue, with five years of trajectory.

FAQ

MPWR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MPWR looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1601 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $670 (range $446–$898), which implies roughly 58.1% downside to the midpoint.

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