Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
NYSE: ORCL · Real-Time Price · USD
$196
+1.36 (+0.7%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: ORCL rated Buy
ORCL is rated Buy at $194.59 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $234.02, implying +20.26% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$234 / share
$188 – $282
Upside to FV
+20.3%
from $196
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Valuation models heavily favor forward-looking earnings over the near-term FCF distortion caused by AI CapEx.
Biggest risk
Hyperscaler Margin War
Hyperscaler Margin War: Dominant hyperscalers aggressively slash AI workload pricing, permanently compressing OCI's structural gross margins.
Recommended action
Buy
ORCL is rated Buy at $194.59 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $234.02, implying +20.26% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $559.6B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 64.1B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 16.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.57 | |
| Shares out | 2.9B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 35.2x | |
| P/E (forward) | 24.2x | |
| Dividend | $2.00 (1.02%) | |
| Volume | 21,158,126 | |
| Beta | 1.54 | |
| Price target | $260 | +32.7% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Oracle CorporationORCL
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 64.1B
- Net income (ttm)
- 16.2B
- EPS (ttm)
- $5.57
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 24.2x
- Market cap
- $559.6B
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-05-31 | 2023-05-31 | 2024-05-31 | 2025-05-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $42.44B | $49.95B | $52.96B | $57.40B | +10.6% |
| Gross profit | $33.56B | $36.39B | $37.82B | $40.47B | +6.4% |
| Operating income | $15.83B | $13.77B | $16.07B | $18.05B | +4.5% |
| Net income | $6.72B | $8.50B | $10.47B | $12.44B | +22.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.41 | $3.07 | $3.71 | $4.34 | +21.7% |
| EBITDA | $13.53B | $18.74B | $21.39B | $23.91B | +20.9% |
| R&D | $7.22B | $8.62B | $8.92B | $9.86B | +11.0% |
| SG&A | $9.36B | $10.41B | $9.82B | $10.25B | +3.1% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $188
- Fair value (mid)
- $234
- Fair value (high)
- $282
- Current price
- $196
- Upside to mid
- +20.3%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $269 | 35% |
| Discounted earnings | $217 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $232 | 20% |
| FCFF DCF | $106 | 10% |
| Owner earnings | $130 | 5% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $443 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Buy
Price target
$260
+32.7%
In the news
Latest news · ORCL
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $559.6B
- P/E (trailing)
- 35.2x
- P/E (forward)
- 24.2x
- P/S
- 8.8x
- P/B
- 16.8x
- PEG
- 1.11
- EV / EBITDA
- 25.0x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 67.1%
- Operating margin
- 32.2%
- ROE
- 57.6%
- ROA
- 6.3%
- ROIC
- 12.0%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 4.15
- Current ratio
- 1.35
- Quick ratio
- 1.22
Trading
- Beta
- 1.54
- Volume
- 21,158,126
- Dividend yield
- 1.0%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: +20.3% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$282.14
+45.0% from spot
Bull (20%): Hyper-growth cloud adoption drives value to $282.14.
- Bull (20%): Hyper-growth cloud adoption drives value to $282.14.
Base60%
Price target
$234.02
+20.3% from spot
Base (60%): OCI scales efficiently yielding a $234.02 fair value.
- Base (60%): OCI scales efficiently yielding a $234.02 fair value.
Bear20%
Price target
$188.36
-3.2% from spot
Bear (20%): Hyperscaler competition limits OCI, dropping value to $188.36.
- Bear (20%): Hyperscaler competition limits OCI, dropping value to $188.36.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $234.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $269 | +37.2% | |
| Discounted earnings | 25% | $217 | +10.9% | |
| Forward earnings | 20% | $232 | +18.3% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $106 | -45.7% | |
| Owner earnings | 5% | $130 | -33.9% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $443 | +125.9% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $234 | +20.3% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $268 | $289 | $314 | $344 | $379 |
| 9.8% | $234 | $250 | $268 | $289 | $314 |
| 10.8% | $208 | $220 | $234 | $250 | $268 |
| 11.8% | $186 | $196 | $208 | $220 | $234 |
| 12.8% | $169 | $177 | $186 | $196 | $208 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation9.0
Management8.1
Balance Sheet1.5
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth6.0
Risk Assessment1.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality9.0
Capital Efficiency5.5
Weighted composite
6.5/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 8.1 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 1.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 5.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Core position within a mature quality compounder allocation.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$196
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Trim exposure if valuation nears the $282.14 bull case or if OCI revenue growth permanently decelerates.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E24.2
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE57.6
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC12
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
Dow Jones Industrial Averagen/a
Russell 2000n/a
All ORCL indicators
Market & fundamental data
Available fields
276
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 276 of 276 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on ORCL
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this ORCL report
What is the current ORCL stock rating?
Oracle Corporation is currently shown with Buy in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full ORCL analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/ORCL/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for ORCL?
The latest report frames ORCL around $188 to $282. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the ORCL page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
BuyORCL · Fair value $234+20.3% · Confidence 88/100