Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
PATH trades against a final fair-value range of $8.05-$13.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $8.05, high $14.0, with mid-point at $11.0.
Stock analysis

PATH UiPath Inc. fair value $11–$14

PATH
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-10Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNYSE · Information Technology
View archive
Prezzo
$10.79
▲ +0.19 (+1.76%)
Valore equo
$11
$11–$14
Valutazione
Mantenere
confidence 84/100
Potenziale rialzo
+1.8%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$9.33
buy below · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$5.7B
P/E fwd 12.0
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $11 with high case $14.
  • Implied upside of 1.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 84/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$11
Margin of safety
+1.7%
Confidence
84/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$10.79Price
FV $10.98
High $13.97

PATH trades against a final fair-value range of $8.05-$13.97, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs embedded deep
    High switching costs embedded deep within enterprise legacy workflows.
  • Incumbent scale and broad integrations
    Incumbent scale and broad integrations in traditional RPA markets.
  • Cycle upside
    Enterprise AI adoption drives massive structural process orchestration needs across sectors.

§2 Scenario ribassista

A recessionary enterprise software budget freeze coupled with Microsoft bundling forces drastic pricing cuts. Base case growth of 9% plummets to 0%, while fixed R&D and SBCStock-based compensationThe fair-value cost of equity awards (options, RSUs, performance shares) granted to employees. A real economic expense even though it is non-cash. costs severely destroy GAAP margins.

Come questa tesi può fallire

AI Generative Disruption

· Medium

Generative AI agents bypass traditional RPA workflows entirely, collapsing gross margins and pipeline growth.

FV impact
Severe downside toward the FCFF DCF floor of $4.48 per share.
Trigger
12-24 months

Structural Margin Stagnation

· High

Intense competitive pricing pressure from Microsoft prevents operating margins from reaching the 25% terminal assumption.

FV impact
Fair value composite drops aggressively to the $8.05 bear case.
Trigger
24-36 months

Uncontrolled SBC Escalation

· Low

Inability to retain engineering talent forces higher stock-based compensation, permanently impairing free cash flow to equity.

FV impact
Resets terminal valuation multiple structurally below 15x.
Trigger
12-18 months
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Net revenue retention falling sustainably below the 110% threshold.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC remaining stubbornly above 18% of revenue without top-line acceleration.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin degradation below 80% indicating severe pricing pressure.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin trajectory missing the required 25% terminal target path.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Measurable market share loss in the standalone orchestration segment.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi
VoceT−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
Periodo2022-01-312023-01-312024-01-312025-01-312026-01-31Trend
Ricavi—$1.06B$1.31B$1.43B$1.61B+11.1%
Utile lordo—$878.5M$1.11B$1.18B$1.34B+11.1%
Reddito operativo—$-348.3M$-164.7M$-162.6M$56.8M—
Utile netto—$-328.4M$-89.9M$-73.7M$282.3M—
EPS (diluito)$-1.16$-0.60$-0.16$-0.13——
EBITDA—$-329.6M$-142.1M$-145.3M$73.7M—
R&S—$285.8M$332.1M$380.7M$385.2M+7.8%
SG&A—$941.1M$944.8M$964.6M$897.6M-1.2%

Punteggi di qualità

Piotroski F-score
7 / 9
Composito qualità 0–9
Altman Z-score
3.41
Rischio di fallimento (>3 sicuro)
OCF / Utile netto
1.32×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Pass
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
2.1%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Sezione 3

Numbers analysis

Allocazione del capitale

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Report completo per ogni ticker coperto
24 mesi di archivio rating
Briefing della watchlist + avvisi di variazione del rating
Esportazione PDF + DOCX in qualsiasi lingua
Inizia la prova gratuita
Annulla in qualsiasi momento.
FAQ

PATH — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, PATH trades close to fair value. The current price is $10.8 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $11.0 (range $8.05–$14.0), which implies roughly 1.8% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of PATH also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder
Same sector: Information Technology