Analisi facoltativa del prodotto
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Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.
| Market cap | $20.7B | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 5.9B | |
| Net income (ttm) | -3.2B | |
| EPS (ttm) | -$2.57 | |
| Shares out | 1.4B | |
| Volume | 24,180,966 | |
| Beta | 1.62 |
Recent price action with selectable time range.
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | P5 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2021-12-31 | 2022-12-31 | 2023-12-31 | 2024-12-31 | 2025-12-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $55.0M | $1.66B | $4.43B | $4.97B | $5.39B | +214.6% |
| Gross profit | $-465.0M | $-3.12B | $-2.03B | $-1.20B | $144.0M | — |
| Operating income | $-4.22B | $-6.86B | $-5.74B | $-4.69B | $-3.59B | — |
| Net income | $-4.69B | $-6.75B | $-5.43B | $-4.75B | $-3.65B | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $-22.98 | $-7.40 | $-5.74 | $-4.69 | $-3.07 | — |
| EBITDA | $-4.46B | $-5.99B | $-4.27B | $-3.39B | $-2.56B | — |
| R&D | $1.85B | $1.94B | $2.00B | $1.61B | $1.67B | -2.6% |
| SG&A | $1.24B | $1.79B | $1.71B | $1.88B | $2.06B | +13.5% |
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
In the base scenario, Rivian executes its planned manufacturing transition in Normal, Illinois, scaling from a single shift to two shifts by late Q3 to achieve full-year FY2026 vehicle deliveries of 65,000 to 70,000 units. Second-half delivery concentration of 42,400 to 47,400 units allows plant-level fixed cost leverage to absorb the transitory $100M quarterly launch drag, enabling automotive gross profit to reach breakeven at 2026 exit rate. Revenue scales 57.95% in FY2027 toward $11,732,161,100 consensus estimates. Transformation capex of $1.7B-$1.8B in FY2026 moderates steadily as tooling completes, allowing operating margins to inflect positive by FY2029 and reach steady-state profitability in FY2030. Contractual RVRS liabilities with Chase Bank remain immaterial, and terminal value is established at 1.10x EV/revenue.
In the bull scenario, consumer demand and reservation-to-order conversion on the R2 Launch Edition substantially outperform expectations, driving FY2026 deliveries above the 70,000-unit guidance ceiling. Rapid fixed cost absorption in Normal eliminates launch-related freight and tooling premiums ahead of schedule, pushing automotive gross margin well into positive territory by year-end. Delivery volume expansion propels FY2027 revenue toward the high-end analyst estimate of $17,743,400,000. Software and services revenue expands from its $1,557,000,000 FY2025 base via paid autonomy features following hands-off Level 3 deployment in 2027. Operating margins inflect rapidly toward mid-single digits, curbing cash burn and eliminating the need for dilutive equity financing.
| Ke ↓ / g → | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.6% | $8.96 | $8.96 | $8.96 | $8.96 | $8.96 |
| 10.6% | $8.63 | $8.63 | $8.63 | $8.63 | $8.63 |
| 11.6% | $8.52 | $8.52 | $8.52 | $8.52 | $8.52 |
| 12.6% | $8.02 | $8.02 | $8.02 | $8.02 | $8.02 |
| 13.6% | $7.74 | $7.74 | $7.74 | $7.74 | $7.74 |
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Il rating riportato dall'edizione di ricerca pubblicata ogni mese. Un rating confronta il prezzo alla data dell'analisi con il valore equo; non indica se la valutazione si è rivelata corretta.
| Anno | gen | feb | mar | apr | mag | giu | lug | ago | set | ott | nov | dic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 |
