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Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.
FAQ
RTX — frequently asked questions
Is RTX Corporation overvalued?
In our latest published analysis dated 2026-09-09, RTX looks modestly undervalued. The price recorded at analysis is 199 USD versus our fair value of 222 USD; the high endpoint is presented separately as potential value of 313 USD. That implies roughly 11.8% upside to fair value at that date.
Our latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-09, gives RTX a fair value of 222 USD and a potential value of 313 USD. The conclusion is triangulated across multiple valuation models and weighted by reliability for RTX Corporation's archetype; it is a dated research output, not a live price.
Should I buy RTX now?
Our latest published rating for RTX, analyzed 2026-09-09, is Buy. RTX Corporation looks modestly undervalued at the analysis-date price of 199 USD versus fair value of 222 USD; potential value is 313 USD. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
What are the biggest risks for RTX?
The dedicated bear-case section in our report analyzed 2026-09-09 documents RTX Corporation's material risks, evidence, thresholds, and thesis-invalidation conditions. Scenario-specific explanations remain in that section so the report does not repeat or decontextualize them elsewhere.
What is RTX's rating?
Our latest published rating for RTX, analyzed 2026-09-09, is Buy, with a published moat assessment of 1/10 (None). It reflects our fair value of 222 USD, the potential value of 313 USD, and the price recorded at analysis (199 USD).
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.
§1 SintesiEN
Risposta in 30 secondiBuy
Prezzo rispetto al valore
Prezzo
$198.81
Fair value
$222.19
Valore potenziale
$312.93
Al
2026-09-08
Perché può funzionare
FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS reaching their upper estimate endpoints, while operating cash remains above profit, would support a longer earnings runway.
Cosa cambierebbe la nostra valutazione
Trailing operating cash falls below $1.00 per $1.00 of profit while debt remains material; $0.80 or less is the thesis-breaking level.
Buy. At the $198.81 report-date price on 2026-09-08, RTX was below $222.19 Fair value; Potential value is $312.93.3
The main risk begins if operating cash falls below $1.00 per $1.00 of profit while debt remains material. Pause additions below $1.00 and reassess Buy at $0.80 or less.3
The clearest upside is FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS reaching their upper estimate endpoints while cash generation remains strong.
The favorable cycle requires product and service sales to reach the FY2027 revenue estimate, spreading fixed costs across more volume and lifting profit.1,5
Evidence-backed thesis
Buy because the dated FY2027 revenue and adjusted-EPS estimates support the near-term growth path, provided cash generation remains strong.1
Cycle upside
The favorable cycle requires product and service sales to support the FY2027 revenue estimate. Meeting that estimate would confirm forecast delivery through the dated estimate window, without proving growth beyond it.1,5
Raccomandazione interna
Buy: the report-date price is below Fair value, but reassess if cash falls to $0.80 per $1.00 of profit; FY2027 estimates provide the upside.1,3
Panoramica dell’azienda
RTX CORPORATION manufactures and service its products in approximately 225 manufacturing, production, or overhaul facilities in approximately 25 countries, including the U.S. RTX CORPORATION has substantial U.S. government sales, which the company conducts through all three of its business segments. In addition, as a global company, all three of its business segments have substantial international sales. See “Note 20: Segment Financial Data” within Item 8 of this Form 10-K for additional information. Its worldwide operations can be affected by industrial, economic, and political factors on both a regional and global level.
Its operations include original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and extensive related aftermarket parts and services related to its aerospace operations. Its defense business serves both domestic and international customers primarily as a prime contractor or subcontractor on a broad portfolio of defense and related programs for government customers.
§2 Scenario ribassistaEN
FY2025 debt of $39.51 billion makes weak cash generation more costly for shareholders. The 26.04x forward P/E as of 2026-09-09 makes slower growth more costly for shareholders.
Product-led sales weaken after FY2027, cash generation falls relative to profit, and investors pay less for future earnings.
This path becomes credible if annual sales growth stays below 3% for two consecutive fiscal years and cash generation weakens relative to reported profit.
Come questa tesi può fallire
Cash generation breaks
Trailing operating cash at or below $0.80 per $1.00 of profit would weaken debt coverage and repurchase capacity while debt remains material.
FV impact
-16.2%
Cost of capital 1 point higher
Trigger
Within 12 months
The valuation premium disappears
A forward P/E below 20x within 12 months would reduce value per earnings dollar even if near-term estimates are delivered.
FV impact
-3.9%
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
I cinque sviluppi che indebolirebbero la nostra tesi d'investimento.
RTX has no established structural moat. Reported sales, cash generation and dated estimates support the near-term case, but they do not show switching costs, network effects, cost advantage or efficient scale.
FY2025 product revenue was $64.17 billion, while service revenue was $24.43 billion. This mix supports scale today but does not prove that competitors cannot erode future growth.
Profitto economico
Strong cash generation can support value, but it is an operating outcome rather than evidence of a durable competitive barrier.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($222.19). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $9.4B after modeled capex of $2.6B, with terminal value at 71.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS reach the upper endpoints of their analyst ranges as of 2026-09-09, while operating cash remains above reported profit from the 2026-09-06 snapshot.
§7 Albero decisionale degli utiliEN
Superato
Maintain Buy and buy in stages after confirming the improvement.
Trigger: FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS both exceed their dated analyst ranges.1
Revenue and adjusted EPS above their FY2027 analyst ranges as of 2026-09-09 would be forecast outperformance, but would not by themselves prove stronger demand or better sales-to-profit conversion.
In linea
Keep the Buy view, but stage purchases.
Trigger: FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS remain near their dated analyst means.1
Delivery near the analyst means supports the near-term case without proving a longer growth period.
Mancato
Pause new purchases and reassess the Buy thesis.
Trigger: FY2027 revenue or adjusted EPS falls below the lower end of its analyst range as of 2026-09-09.1
Revenue or adjusted EPS below its FY2027 analyst range as of 2026-09-09 would be forecast underperformance and weaken the near-term case without proving which operating factor caused the miss.
Qualità degli utili
The accounting snapshot dated 2026-09-06 shows operating cash exceeded reported profit. FY2025 debt still limits how much cash can support repurchases or acquisitions.3
The accounting snapshot dated 2026-09-06 shows operating cash exceeded reported profit, supporting the view that earnings were backed by cash. FY2025 debt of $39.51 billion against $7.44 billion of cash remains the main constraint.3,4
Allocazione del capitale
Diluted average shares rose from 1.3436 billion in FY2024 to 1.3564 billion in FY2025, while stock compensation was $519 million. Do not assume automatic net retirement.
The snapshot compares operating cash with reported profit and shows cash generation was higher.
FY2025 capital spending and debt service should rank ahead of discretionary cash uses; the evidence does not establish how much cash remains after those obligations.
Ricavi più recenti88,6 Mld USDCAGR dei ricavi +5,0%
Margine operativo10,5%10 periodi fiscali
Flusso di cassa libero più recente7,9 Mld USDFY2025
Debito netto32,1 Mld USDFY2025
Dettaglio del conto economicoCome la scala aziendale si traduce in utile dichiarato.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Ricavi88,6 Mld USDCosto del venduto−70,8 Mld USDUtile lordo17,8 Mld USDCosti operativi−8,5 Mld USDReddito operativo9,3 Mld USDVoci non operative e imposte−2,6 Mld USDUtile netto6,7 Mld USD
Dati della storia finanziaria
Ricavi
88.603.000.000 USD
Costo del venduto
70.814.000.000 USD
Utile lordo
17.789.000.000 USD
Costi operativi
8.489.000.000 USD
Reddito operativo
9.300.000.000 USD
Voci non operative e imposte
-2.568.000.000 USD
Utile netto
6.732.000.000 USD
Panoramica dello stato patrimonialeCome sono detenute e finanziate le attività dichiarate nel periodo selezionato.
Ponte dei flussi di cassaCome il flusso di cassa operativo è diventato flusso di cassa libero nel FY2025.
StockMarketAgent.AI
Riconciliazione del flusso operativo
Utile netto6,7 Mld USDAmmortamenti e svalutazioni+4,4 Mld USDCompensi basati su azioni+519 Mln USDAltre rettifiche operative−1,1 Mld USDFlusso di cassa operativo10,6 Mld USD
Riconciliazione della liquidità iniziale e finale
Liquidità iniziale5,6 Mld USDFlusso di cassa operativo+10,6 Mld USDFlusso da investimenti−1,3 Mld USDFlusso da finanziamenti−7,5 Mld USDEffetto dei tassi di cambio+48 Mln USDLiquidità finale7,5 Mld USD
RTX Corporation (RTX) trades at 26.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 21.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 18.9x compares with a peer median of 16.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: GE Aerospace, TransDigm Group Incorporated, General Dynamics Corporation and Northrop Grumman Corporation, as of 2026-09-09.
§10 Settore e cicloEN
Fase del ciclo
Contraction
The industry benchmark showed capital spending at 0.8% of revenue and 0.95 times depreciation as of 2026-09-01, retrieved 2026-09-01 04:00:14.
Ciclo rialzista
The favorable cycle requires product and service sales to support the FY2027 revenue estimate. Meeting that estimate would confirm forecast delivery through the dated estimate window, without proving growth beyond it.
Ciclo ribassista
Reported geographic breadth may not cushion a broad slowdown. The United States and Europe were material disclosed geographies, but the disclosure does not show how regional weakness would affect sales, profit margins or cash.
Trend secolari
Trend
Impatto
Nota
Product-led sales base
positive
Product revenue supplies the main route to consolidated growth, with services providing a smaller complement.
Reported geographic breadth
neutral
Europe and Asia Pacific are meaningful reported geographies, but the figures do not identify customer demand, production or currency exposure.
Posizionamento
RTX is positioned for demand-led growth through FY2027, but the case should fade afterward unless sales and profit establish a longer runway.
§11 Gestione della posizioneEN
Dimensionamento
Moderate position; no fixed portfolio percentage is supported. The Buy rating has upside to Fair value, but debt, valuation dispersion and limited visibility after FY2027 argue for staged exposure.3
Rischio
Maintain the position while trailing operating cash stays above $0.80 per $1.00 of profit. Add only when cash exceeds profit, FY2027 analyst estimates as of 2026-09-09 are met and debt declines. Pause additions below $1.00 and reassess Buy at $0.80 or less.
Tranche di ingresso
Livello
Azione
Perché
At or below $222.19 Fair value
Buy a staged allocation.
The report-date price was below Fair value on 2026-09-08.
After FY2027 revenue and adjusted EPS meet their means
Add only if debt also declines.
Delivery would strengthen the operating case and lower dependence on assumed post-FY2027 growth.
Buy in stages below $222.19 Fair value and require operating delivery before adding near $312.93 Potential value.
§14 Raccomandazione finaleEN
Azione
Comprare
Buy reflects $222.19 Fair value versus the $198.81 report-date price.3
Maintain Buy while trailing operating cash stays above $0.80 per $1.00 of profit. Add only when cash exceeds profit, FY2027 estimates are met and debt declines; pause additions below $1.00 and reassess at $0.80 or less.
§15Your notes
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Private notes
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Sources
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A result below the analyst range observed as of 2026-09-09 would show that per-share profit underperformed the forecast and weaken support for extending earnings growth beyond FY2027.
Attuale:Analyst mean $7.86; range $7.33-$8.20, as of and retrieved 2026-09-09T10:08:42Z.
Limitation: Terminal value is 76.1% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 81.7% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Limitation: Terminal value is 71.5% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
That result would support a longer earnings runway. The case would weaken if either FY2027 measure missed its upper endpoint as of 2026-09-09 or operating cash no longer exceeded reported profit relative to that 2026-09-06 baseline.1