TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $938, high $1542, with mid-point at $1239.
Trades close to fair value, so the margin of safety is limited either way.
Fair value
$1,239
Margin of safety
+3.8%
Confidence
86/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$1,191.19Price
Low $938.35
Mid $1,238.78
High $1,542.2
TDG trades against a final fair-value range of $938.35-$1,542.20, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered
Quasi-monopolistic portfolio of highly engineered sole-source components.
Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream
Sticky aftermarket recurring revenue stream.
Cycle upside
High airline fleet utilization drives relentless aftermarket parts demand, cementing pricing power.
Each scenario for TDG (TDG) carries a five-year price target, an explicit set of assumptions (growth, terminal multiple, margin path), and a probability weight calibrated against current visibility.
Probability weights start from a 25/50/25 default and are asymmetry-adjusted: when downside risk is elevated, base + bear gain weight; when visibility is high (long RPO, multi-year contracts), bull and base both gain.
Expected return is the probability-weighted average of the three scenario returns. The expected-value table reports the weighted price, weighted return, and asymmetry to help the reader compare risk-reward against the rating band.
When our composite fair value differs from private calibration references by more than 30%, the calibration-divergence diagnostic is run to identify which assumptions drive the gap; the result is summarised in the parent valuation surface.
FAQ
TDG — frequently asked questions
Based on our latest analysis, TDG trades close to fair value. The current price is $1191 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $1239 (range $938–$1542), which implies roughly 4.0% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for TDG is $938–$1542, with a midpoint of $1239. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for TDG's archetype.
Our current rating for TDG is Hold with a confidence score of 86/100. TDG is rated Hold at $1,191.19 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $1,238.78, implying +4.00% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 86/100. This is research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for TDG are: Regulatory Pricing Crackdown; Aviation Downcycle Meets Debt; M&A Pipeline Exhaustion. The single biggest risk is Regulatory Pricing Crackdown: DoD enforces pricing caps or retroactively audits sole-source pricing, structurally crushing gross margins and erasing the aftermarket premium.
Our current rating for TDG is Hold, issued with a confidence score of 86/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($938–$1542) versus the current price of $1191.
TDG is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for TDG.
