Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
V trades against a final fair-value range of $305.64-$499.48, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $306, high $499, with mid-point at $402.
Stock analysis

V fair value $306–$499

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
Analizzato: 2026-05-08Prossimo aggiornamento: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
Prezzo
$321.28
▲ +80.67 (+25.11%)
Valore equo
$402
$306–$499
Valutazione
Acquisto forte
confidence 88/100
Potenziale rialzo
+25.1%
upside to fair value
Margine di Sicurezza
$341.66
MoS level · 15%
Capitalizzazione
$611.0B
P/E fwd 21.7
Fallback in ingleseIT
Mostrando la fonte in inglese mentre traduciamo
Questo report non è ancora stato tradotto. Aggiorna tra qualche minuto una volta che la coda di traduzione avrà recuperato.

§1 Sintesi

  • Composite fair value $402 with high case $499.
  • Implied upside of 25.1% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$402
Margin of safety
+20.1%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$321.28Price
Low $305.64
Mid $401.95
High $499.48

V trades against a final fair-value range of $305.64-$499.48, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Network Effect
    Ubiquity among consumers and merchants creates an impenetrable global duopoly.
  • Intangible Assets
    Decades of brand trust and security infrastructure.
  • Cycle upside
    Secular cash-to-digital transition in emerging markets, expanding B2B flows, and robust global travel driving high-margin cross-border transactions.

§2 Scenario ribassista

A synchronized global recession coupled with stringent regulatory caps on domestic interchange fees would severely compress take rates and volume. Margins would decay as fixed tech investments deleverage against stalling revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions..

Come questa tesi può fallire

Regulatory Take-Rate Compression

· Low

Global regulators, led by the US passing the Credit Card Competition Act or similar measures, aggressively cap interchange fees, permanently compressing Visa's take rate and yielding sustained margin decay.

FV impact
-30%
Trigger
3-5 Years

Disintermediation by Alternative Rails

· Low

Government-sponsored real-time payment rails (like FedNow) and dominant tech digital wallets establish successful direct-to-bank networks at scale, bypassing VisaNet entirely.

FV impact
-25%
Trigger
5-10 Years

Severe Macroeconomic Contraction

· Medium

A prolonged global recession severely limits consumer spending, particularly in high-margin cross-border travel and luxury goods, stalling revenue growth below inflation.

FV impact
-15%
Trigger
1-3 Years
Segnali di allerta precoce da monitorare
MetricaAttualeSoglia di attivazione
Deceleration in cross-border payment volume growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins sustained below 65%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory momentum advancing the Credit Card Competition Act.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Material market share loss in co-brand portfolios to Mastercard.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Slowdown in value-added services and Visa Direct revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 Storia finanziaria

Conto economico — ultimi sei periodi
VoceT−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
Periodo2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
Ricavi$29.31B$32.65B$35.93B$40.00B+10.9%
Utile lordo$23.58B$26.09B$28.88B$32.15B+10.9%
Reddito operativo$19.68B$21.93B$24.06B$26.56B+10.5%
Utile netto$14.96B$17.27B$19.74B$20.06B+10.3%
EPS (diluito)$7.00$8.28$9.73$10.20+13.4%
EBITDA$19.54B$22.62B$25.59B$26.00B+10.0%
R&S—————
SG&A$3.04B$3.22B$3.79B$4.37B+12.9%

Punteggi di qualità

Piotroski F-score
6 / 9
Composito qualità 0–9
Altman Z-score
7.41
Rischio di fallimento (>3 sicuro)
Beneish M-score
-2.49
Rischio di manipolazione degli utili
OCF / Utile netto
1.15×
>1 indica alta qualità degli utili
Soglia di qualità contabile
Pass
Soglia corretta per settore
ROIC
31.0%
Rendimento del capitale investito
Sezione 3

Numbers analysis

Flusso di cassa

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

Allocazione del capitale

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

Abbonati individuali — da §4 in poi11 sezioni in più

Leggi l'analisi completa — 11 sezioni in più.

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

Report completo per ogni ticker coperto
24 mesi di archivio rating
Briefing della watchlist + avvisi di variazione del rating
Esportazione PDF + DOCX in qualsiasi lingua
Inizia la prova gratuita
Annulla in qualsiasi momento.
BALANCE SHEET FAQ

V balance sheet questions

  1. V (V)'s balance sheet section reports total assets, total liabilities, shareholders' equity, and the structure of debt versus cash so leverage and liquidity can be read directly.

FAQ

V — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, V looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $321 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $402 (range $306–$499), which implies roughly 25.1% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of V also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder