AAPL trades against a final fair-value range of $141.47-$258.93, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $141, high $259, with mid-point at $200.
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$200
Margin of safety
-43.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$287.44Price
FV $199.9
High $258.93
AAPL trades against a final fair-value range of $141.47-$258.93, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
Ecosystem Lock-in
High switching costs across interwoven hardware, software, and services.
Intangible Assets
Premium brand equity commanding massive pricing power and customer loyalty.
Bull thesis
Market prices an unbroken AI super-cycle and perpetual >30x multiples.
§2 ベアケース
A combined shock of App Store margin compression via regulation and a hardware upgrade freeze would structurally reset Apple's terminal growth and multiple. Under this stress, the intrinsic floor rests near $141, anchored purely by the capital return program.
このテーゼが崩れる経路
Regulatory Disruption of Services
· Medium
Global antitrust actions force an open ecosystem, compressing App Store margins and eliminating default search revenue.
FV impact
-15% to -25%
Trigger
1-3 Years
Hardware Saturation & Cycle Elongation
· High
Lack of compelling edge-AI use cases pushes hardware upgrade cycles past 4.5 years, permanently resetting growth expectations.
FV impact
-10% to -20%
Trigger
Immediate
Supply Chain & Geopolitical Severance
· Low
Escalating trade tensions severely restrict Asian manufacturing capacity or consumer market access, crushing margins.
FV impact
-30%
Trigger
2-4 Years
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標
現在
トリガーしきい値
Sequential declines in active installed base growth.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Services revenue deceleration falling below 8%.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compression in hardware indicating loss of pricing power.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Material reduction in the pace of share repurchases.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Adverse rulings in ongoing international App Store litigation.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 財務履歴
損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
CAGR
期間
2022-09-30
2023-09-30
2024-09-30
2025-09-30
Trend
売上高
$394.33B
$383.29B
$391.04B
$416.16B
+1.8%
売上総利益
$170.78B
$169.15B
$180.68B
$195.20B
+4.6%
営業利益
$119.44B
$114.30B
$123.22B
$133.05B
+3.7%
純利益
$99.80B
$97.00B
$93.74B
$112.01B
+3.9%
EPS (希薄化後)
$6.11
$6.13
$6.08
$7.46
+6.9%
EBITDA
$130.54B
$125.82B
$134.66B
$144.75B
+3.5%
研究開発
$26.25B
$29.92B
$31.37B
$34.55B
+9.6%
販管費
$25.09B
$24.93B
$26.10B
$27.60B
+3.2%
品質スコア
OCF / 純利益
1×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
61.0%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3
Numbers analysis
キャッシュフロー
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
資本配分
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加
完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Based on our latest independent analysis, AAPL looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $287 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $200 (range $141–$259), which implies roughly 30.5% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for AAPL is $141–$259, with a midpoint of $200. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for Apple Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for AAPL is Sell with a confidence score of 88/100. AAPL is rated Sell at $287.44 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $199.90, implying -30.46% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for Apple Inc. are: Regulatory Disruption of Services; Hardware Saturation & Cycle Elongation; Supply Chain & Geopolitical Severance. The single biggest risk is Structural growth fade is mathematically unavoidable at this scale.
Our current rating for AAPL is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 88/100 and a moat score of 9/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($141–$259) versus the current price of $287.
Apple Inc. is classified as a mature compounder stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for AAPL.
