Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)

NASDAQ: ACGL · USD

$102

+2.02 (+2.0%)· Recorded snapshot

英語版にフォールバックJA

翻訳中のため英語版を表示しています

このレポートはまだ翻訳されていません。翻訳キューが追いついたら数分後に更新してください。

StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-04

Our latest published analysis: ACGL rated Strong Buy

Arch Capital Group Ltd.'s published Strong Buy conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$149 / share

Potential value

$254 / share

Upside to FV

+59.5%

from $102

Moat

7.2/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$31.9B
Revenue (ttm)	18.8B
Net income (ttm)	4.3B
EPS (ttm)	$12.3
Shares out	339.8M
P/E (trailing)	8.3x
P/E (forward)	9.6x
Volume	2,463,099
Beta	0.26

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 18.8B
Net income (ttm): 4.3B
EPS (ttm): $12.3
P/E (trailing): 8.3x
P/E (forward): 9.6x
Market cap: $31.9B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$9.25B	$9.61B	$13.63B	$17.44B	$19.93B	+21.2%
Gross profit	$3.04B	$2.89B	$4.74B	$6.45B	$7.41B	+25.0%
Operating income	$2.24B	$1.62B	$3.52B	$4.62B	$5.16B	+23.2%
Net income	$2.16B	$1.48B	$4.44B	$4.31B	$4.40B	+19.5%
EPS (diluted)	$5.23	$3.80	$11.62	$11.19	$11.60	+22.0%
EBITDA	$2.32B	$1.72B	$3.61B	$4.85B	$5.35B	+23.2%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$78.0M	$95.0M	$102.0M	$1.67B	$79.0M	+0.3%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AIG	American International Group Inc.	41.7B	14.7x	1.6x	7.7%	-9.6%	+2.8%	強い買い
AIZ	Assurant, Inc.	14.1B	13.6x	1.0x	14.4%	+6.6%	+36.2%	ホールド
AJG	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	66.7B	43.2x	4.4x	6.6%	+15.3%	-5.7%	買い
ALL	The Allstate Corporation	63.2B	5.0x	0.9x	32.6%	+8.5%	+31.8%	強い買い
AMP	Ameriprise Financial, Inc.	43.1B	11.8x	2.2x	43.0%	+8.9%	+1.1%	買い
AON	Aon plc	66.8B	17.2x	3.8x	16.3%	+7.9%	-5.5%	買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$149.29

+59.5% from spot

Arch executes disciplined cycle management across property lines, ceding softening property cat reinsurance exposure while maintaining firm casualty margins and mortgage underwriting profitability. Operating cash flows remain robust, funding accretive share repurchases that drive per-share book value and EPS compounding.

FY2026 diluted EPS of $9.37 and FY2027 EPS of $9.75,
Operating margin normalizing from 24.0% in 2026 to 25.0% by 2030
Diluted share count contracting by -8.5% in 2026 and -2.5% in 2027 through opportunistic buybacks
Terminal P/E multiple of 9.5x forward earnings and moderate Ke of 6.9051%,

Bull20%

Price target

$254.39

+171.8% from spot

Discipline in commercial casualty pricing hardens broader property and casualty lines, while property cat reinsurance rates stabilize. Synergies from the MCE acquisition materialize faster than projected, lowering the expense ratio, while mortgage credit performance remains pristine and reinvestment yields bolster net investment income.

Annual EPS growth accelerating to +8.5% across the forecast schedule
Operating margins expanding toward 26.5% supported by hardening commercial casualty lines and MCE integration synergies
Annual share repurchases exceeding $1.5B, accelerating share count reduction
Multiple expansion toward multiline specialty leaders at 12.0x-14.0x forward earnings

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($149.29). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
5.9%	$166	$173	$181	$191	$202
6.4%	$152	$157	$163	$170	$178
6.9%	$141	$145	$149	$154	$160
7.4%	$131	$135	$138	$142	$147
7.9%	$123	$126	$129	$132	$136

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E9.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E7.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE18.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC15.9

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All ACGL indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

259

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 259 of 259 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000947484
Company name	Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Country	Bermuda
Country code	US
CUSIP number	G0450A105
Earnings date	2026-10-27
Earnings time	amc
Employees	8,000
Employees change	800
Employees growth	11.11%
Enterprise value	$37.9B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	2001
In index	SP500
Industry	Insurance - Diversified
IPO date	1995-09-13
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	BMG0450A1053
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-26
Last earnings date	2026-10-27
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2018-06-21
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$34.8B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-02-08
Options	Yes
Price	$102.36
Price currency	USD
Sector	Financials
SIC code	6331
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	ACGL
Website	https://www.archgroup.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	9.56x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	11.86x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	7.71x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	9.34x
Earnings yield	11.98%
EV/Earnings	8.58x
EV/EBIT	7.34x
EV/EBITDA	7.15x
EV/FCF	6.61x
EV/Sales	1.98x
FCF / EV yield	15.12%
FCF yield	16.51%
Forward EV/Sales	2.37x
Forward P/E	10.55x
Forward P/S	2.17x
Graham number	136.85201
Graham upside	36.39%
Industry forward P/E	20.51x
Industry P/E	13.27x
Lynch fair value	$203.34
Lynch upside	102.65%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	6.21x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	6.16x
P/B ratio	1.48x
P/E ratio	8.35x
P/FCF ratio	6.06x
P/OCF ratio	6.01x
P/S ratio	1.82x
PEG ratio	3.46x
Price / tangible book value	1.62x
Price/EBITDA ratio	6.55x
Sector forward P/E	13.64x
Sector P/E	15.69x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	27%
EBITDA margin	27.73%
Effective tax rate	13.03%
FCF margin	29.98%
Gross margin	37.64%
Operating margin	27%
Pretax margin	26.8%
Profit margin	23.31%
Profit per employee	$542,125
Profitable quarters	35
Profitable years	25
Revenue per employee	$2.3M
ROA	3.88%
ROA (5Y)	3.65%
ROCE	14.77%
ROE	18.74%
ROE (5Y)	19.48%
ROIC	15.86%
ROIC (5Y)	15.49%
SBC / revenue	0.75%
Tax / revenue	3.49%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	14.9%
EPS growth (Q)	-15.73%
EPS growth (QoQ)	0%
EPS growth 10Y	21.47%
EPS growth 3Y	16.47%
EPS growth 5Y	19.83%
EPS growth years	1
FCF growth	-10.58%
FCF growth (Q)	-19.6%
FCF growth (QoQ)	33.64%
FCF growth 3Y	3.92%
FCF growth 5Y	12.42%
Net income growth	6.86%
Net income growth (Q)	-23.33%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-1.15%
Net income growth 3Y	13.99%
Net income growth 5Y	16.59%
Net income growth years	1
OCF growth	-10.54%
OCF growth (Q)	-19.53%
OCF growth (QoQ)	33.06%
OCF growth 10Y	16.54%
OCF growth 3Y	3.84%
OCF growth 5Y	12.26%
Revenue growth	-3.91%
Revenue growth (Q)	-8.89%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-0.28%
Revenue growth 10Y	15.68%
Revenue growth 3Y	13.83%
Revenue growth 5Y	15.06%
Revenue growth years	7

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-44M
EBIT	$5.1B
EBITDA	$5.2B
EPS	$12.26
FCF per share	$16.56
Financing cash flow	$-2.6B
Free cash flow	$5.6B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$5.5B
Gross profit	$7.1B
Income taxes	$656M
Investing cash flow	$-2.9B
Net borrowing	$1.6B
Net cash flow	$123M
Net income	$4.3B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$5.5B
Operating income	$5.1B
Revenue	$18.8B
Stock-based compensation	$141M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$67.90
Debt / EBITDA	0.82
Debt / equity	0.19
Debt / FCF	0.76
Interest coverage	28.01
Net cash (debt)	$-3.1B
Net cash / market cap	-9.19%
Net debt / EBITDA	0.6
Net debt / equity	0.14
Net debt / FCF	0.56
Piotroski F-Score	4
Shareholders' equity	$23B
Tangible book value	$21B
Tangible book value per share	$64.43
Total assets	$84.1B
Total cash	$4.4B
Total debt	$4.3B
Total liabilities	$61.1B
WACC	5.44%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.23
Current ratio	0.56
Net working capital	$-23B
Quick ratio	0.28
Working capital	$-21.8B

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	6.92%
Dividend per share	$0.00
Dividend yield	0%
Last dividend	$5.00
Shareholder yield	6.92%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	297.36%
10Y return CAGR	15.38%
10Y total return	317.88%
150-day SMA	$96.88
15Y price change	734.74%
15Y return CAGR	15.58%
15Y total return	777.82%
1D price change	2.01%
1M price change	7.79%
1M total return	7.79%
1W price change	0.73%
1W total return	0.73%
1Y price change	18.72%
1Y return CAGR	18.74%
1Y total return	18.72%
20-day SMA	$98.32
200-day SMA	$96.65
20Y price change	1,315.12%
20Y return CAGR	14.46%
20Y total return	1,388.19%
3M price change	-1.78%
3M total return	-1.78%
3Y price change	25.41%
3Y return CAGR	9.66%
3Y total return	31.88%
50-day SMA	$97.68
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$107.09
52-week high date	2026-07-28
52-week low	$82.45
52-week low date	2025-10-28
5Y price change	141.04%
5Y return CAGR	20.45%
5Y total return	153.48%
6M price change	5.9%
6M total return	5.9%
All-time high	$116.47
All-time high date	2024-10-07
All-time low	$1.22
All-time low date	1999-11-23
Average true range (ATR)	$2.14
Average volume	2.3M
Beta (1Y)	-0.12
Beta (2Y)	0.28
Beta (5Y)	0.26
Change from 52-week high	-4.41%
Change from 52-week low	24.16%
Change from all-time high	-12.4%
Change from all-time low	8,249.43%
Change from open	0.93%
Day's gap	1.08%
Dollar volume	$252.1M
High price	$103.43
Low price	$100.65
Monthly RSI	57.56
Open price	$101.42
Position in 52-week range	61.51%
Premarket change	0.1%
Premarket close	$100.34
Premarket price	$100.44
Previous close	$100.34
Price vs 150-day SMA	5.32%
Price vs 20-day SMA	3.78%
Price vs 200-day SMA	5.56%
Price vs 50-day SMA	4.45%
Relative volume	1.07
RSI	60.87
Sharpe ratio	0.75
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.33
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.71
Sortino ratio	1.33
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.7
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.26
Volume	2.5M
Weekly RSI	59.7
YTD price change	6.37%
YTD total return	6.37%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	326.9M
Float percentage	96.2%
Shares change (QoQ)	-2.12%
Shares change (YoY)	-6.92%
Shares held by insiders	3.53%
Shares held by institutions	92.57%
Shares outstanding	339.8M
Short % of float	2.35%
Short % of shares	2.26%
Short ratio	1.7 days

Deeper analysis on ACGL

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ACGL report

What is the latest published ACGL stock rating?

Arch Capital Group Ltd. is shown with Strong Buy in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ACGL analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-04, lives at /stocks/ACGL/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ACGL?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-04 gives ACGL a fair value of USD 149 and a potential value of USD 254. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ACGL page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-04). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

Strong BuyACGL · Fair value $149+59.5%

Read full analysis →

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL)

Our latest published analysis: ACGL rated Strong Buy

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ACGL

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All ACGL indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on ACGL

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	8.5
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	5.0
Profitability	6.5
Revenue Growth	2.5
Risk Assessment	7.0
Competitive Moat	7.2
Earnings Quality	7.5
Capital Efficiency	6.5