Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

NYSE: ADM · USD

$77.3

-0.89 (-1.1%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: ADM rated Reduce

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company's published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$71.5 / share

Potential value

$102 / share

Upside to FV

-11.1%

from $77.3

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$38.8B
Revenue (ttm)	82.1B
Net income (ttm)	1.8B
EPS (ttm)	$3.65
Shares out	482M
P/E (trailing)	21.2x
P/E (forward)	15.6x
Dividend	$2.08 (2.69%)
Volume	1,382,466
Beta	0.63

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 82.1B
Net income (ttm): 1.8B
EPS (ttm): $3.65
P/E (trailing): 21.2x
P/E (forward): 15.6x
Market cap: $38.8B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$85.25B	$27.61B	$25.69B	$24.37B	$24.96B	-26.4%
Gross profit	$5.99B	$7.57B	$7.51B	$5.78B	$5.03B	-4.2%
Operating income	$3.58B	$5.63B	$4.94B	$2.96B	$1.87B	-15.0%
Net income	$2.71B	$4.34B	$3.48B	$1.80B	$1.08B	-20.6%
EPS (diluted)	$4.79	$7.71	$6.43	$3.65	$2.23	-17.4%
EBITDA	$4.57B	$6.66B	$6.00B	$4.10B	$3.05B	-9.6%
R&D	$171.0M	$216.0M	$256.0M	$269.0M	$246.0M	+9.5%
SG&A	$2.99B	$3.36B	$3.46B	$3.71B	$3.61B	+4.8%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ABBV	AbbVie Inc.	505.6B	80.8x	7.9x	17.7%	+3.7%	+29.1%	売り
ABT	Abbott Laboratories	177.6B	38.2x	3.7x	7.2%	+2.7%	-17.2%	縮小
ACN	Accenture plc	144.3B	18.0x	2.0x	27.9%	+8.0%	+0.4%	ホールド
BF.B	Brown-Forman Corporation Class B	12.7B	17.9x	3.3x	14.3%	+1.6%	+0.4%	買い
CAG	Conagra Brands, Inc.	6.6B	—	0.6x	9.2%	+0.2%	-18.9%	強い買い
CCEP	Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC	49.3B	22.5x	2.0x	11.7%	+12.8%	+24.3%	買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$71.52

-11.1% from spot

In the modal base case, carrying an assigned probability of 55.0%, ADM's irreplaceable origination and transportation network stabilizes volume throughput across Ag Services & Oilseeds and Carbohydrate Solutions. Post-maintenance plant restarts proceed smoothly, and processing margins normalize toward historical peer levels rather than remaining at cyclical troughs. Steady execution across human and animal nutrition offsets selective softness in liquid sweeteners, while clean fuel production tax credits provide incremental operating profit. Intrinsic valuation converges toward $71.52, generating an implied return of -11.1% against $80.45, supporting the house Reduce rating given the modest premium to $71.52.

Orderly volume normalization across Ag Services and Carbohydrate Solutions
Crush margins stabilizing near historical peer averages as industry restarts normalize
Full realization of anticipated clean fuel tax credits across North American ethanol facilities
Disciplined capital expenditure maintaining steady dividend distributions and balance-sheet liquidity

Bull20%

Price target

$102.17

+27.0% from spot

In the upside path, with an assigned probability of 20.0%, global demand expansion across core agricultural origination channels drives an extended recovery in processing spreads. Operational debottlenecking across domestic processing assets successfully reduces fixed manufacturing costs per unit, while structural demand for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel feedstocks sustains elevated vegetable oil pricing. Robust cash conversion delivers substantial free cash flow, accelerating balance-sheet deleveraging and opportunistic equity repurchases. This operational leverage lifts projected earnings and yields an implied target of $102.17, representing an expected return of 27.0% relative to $80.45.

Synchronized global demand expansion across agricultural origination networks
Sustained high capacity utilization and premium renewable diesel feedstock off-take
Consolidated operating margins expanding toward upper historical mid-cycle bounds
Accelerated free cash flow generation enabling debt paydown and active share repurchases

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($71.52). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
7.7%	$78.2	$80.6	$83.2	$86.2	$89.4
8.2%	$72.7	$74.7	$76.9	$79.2	$81.8
8.7%	$68.1	$69.8	$71.5	$73.5	$75.6
9.2%	$64.1	$65.5	$67.0	$68.6	$70.3
9.7%	$60.7	$61.8	$63.1	$64.4	$65.9

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E15.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E21.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE7.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All ADM indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

290

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 290 of 290 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000007084
Company name	Archer-Daniels-Midland Company
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	039483102
Earnings date	2026-11-03
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	41,496
Employees change	-2,547
Employees growth	-5.78%
Enterprise value	$45.5B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1902
In index	SP500
Industry	Farm Products
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US0394831020
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-17
Last earnings date	2026-08-04
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2001-08-30
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$37.3B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-03
Options	Yes
Price	$77.31
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Staples
SIC code	2070
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	ADM
U.S. state	Illinois
Website	https://www.adm.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	17.81x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	15.73x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	17.97x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	15.67x
Earnings yield	4.72%
EV/Earnings	25.77x
EV/EBIT	23.95x
EV/EBITDA	15.23x
EV/FCF	27.2x
EV/Sales	0.56x
FCF / EV yield	3.68%
FCF yield	4.49%
Forward EV/Sales	0.47x
Forward P/E	13.01x
Forward P/S	0.38x
Graham number	63.37105
Graham upside	-18.26%
Industry forward P/E	13.21x
Industry P/E	25.77x
Lynch fair value	$18.25
Lynch upside	-76.46%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	24.45x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	14.12x
P/B ratio	1.6x
P/E ratio	21.18x
P/FCF ratio	22.28x
P/OCF ratio	13.37x
P/S ratio	0.46x
Price / tangible book value	2.19x
Price/EBITDA ratio	12.48x
Sector forward P/E	21.33x
Sector P/E	28.29x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	2.32%
EBITDA margin	3.65%
Effective tax rate	15.08%
FCF margin	2.04%
Gross margin	6.87%
Operating margin	2.32%
Pretax margin	2.55%
Profit margin	2.16%
Profit per employee	$42,655
Profitable quarters	88
Profitable years	27
Revenue per employee	$2M
ROA	2.26%
ROA (5Y)	3.3%
ROCE	5.68%
ROE	7.64%
ROE (5Y)	11.52%
ROIC	4.96%
ROIC (5Y)	7.37%
SBC / revenue	0.18%
Tax / revenue	0.38%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	60.37%
EPS growth (Q)	315.56%
EPS growth (QoQ)	203.72%
EPS growth 10Y	3.97%
EPS growth 3Y	-21.33%
EPS growth 5Y	-2.29%
EPS growth quarters	2
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth	-59.19%
FCF growth (Q)	-78.04%
FCF growth 3Y	-22.62%
FCF growth 5Y	58.62%
Gross profit growth	6.96%
Gross profit growth (Q)	41.24%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-9.21%
Gross profit growth 5Y	0.85%
Net income growth	61.06%
Net income growth (Q)	314.61%
Net income growth (QoQ)	204.7%
Net income growth 3Y	-24.71%
Net income growth 5Y	-5.21%
Net income growth quarters	2
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	-49.89%
OCF growth (Q)	-73.27%
OCF growth (QoQ)	666%
OCF growth 10Y	5.13%
OCF growth 3Y	-17.91%
OCF growth 5Y	21.47%
Operating income growth	18.69%
Operating income growth (Q)	98.04%
Operating income growth 3Y	-22.26%
Operating income growth 5Y	-5.3%
Revenue growth	-0.82%
Revenue growth (Q)	7.16%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	10.69%
Revenue growth 10Y	2.68%
Revenue growth 3Y	-6.33%
Revenue growth 5Y	1.85%
Revenue growth quarters	2
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-1.1B
Depreciation and amortization	$1.1B
EBIT	$1.9B
EBITDA	$3B
EPS	$3.65
FCF per share	$3.48
Financing cash flow	$-2.3B
Free cash flow	$1.7B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.5B
Gross profit	$5.6B
Income taxes	$316M
Investing cash flow	$-999M
Net borrowing	$-1.2B
Net cash flow	$-487M
Net income	$1.8B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$2.6B
Operating income	$1.9B
Revenue	$82.1B
Stock-based compensation	$149M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	3.05
Book value per share	$48.91
Debt / EBITDA	2.65
Debt / equity	0.39
Debt / FCF	5.57
Goodwill	$4.7B
Interest coverage	3.22
Long-term assets	$25.7B
Long-term liabilities	$9.6B
Net cash (debt)	$-8.2B
Net cash / market cap	-22.08%
Net debt / EBITDA	2.75
Net debt / equity	0.35
Net debt / FCF	4.92
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$12.3B
Shareholders' equity	$23.9B
Tangible book value	$17.1B
Tangible book value per share	$35.43
Total assets	$53.5B
Total cash	$1.1B
Total debt	$9.3B
Total liabilities	$29.7B
WACC	7.24%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.56
Current assets	$27.8B
Current liabilities	$20B
Current ratio	1.39
Inventory turnover	7.53
Net working capital	$8.6B
Quick ratio	0.3
Working capital	$7.8B
Working capital turnover	10.52

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-0.31%
Dividend growth	1.97%
Dividend growth (10Y)	5.78%
Dividend growth (3Y)	5.76%
Dividend growth (5Y)	7.09%
Dividend growth years	53
Dividend payment date	2026-09-09
Dividend payment years	56
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$2.08
Dividend yield	2.69%
Ex-dividend date	2026-08-19
FCF payout ratio	59.78%
Last dividend	$0.52
Payout ratio	56.99%
Shareholder yield	2.37%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	79.46%
10Y return CAGR	9.2%
10Y total return	140.98%
150-day SMA	$79.13
15Y price change	155.99%
15Y return CAGR	9.46%
15Y total return	288.14%
1D price change	-1.14%
1M price change	-4.7%
1M total return	-4.7%
1W price change	-3.91%
1W total return	-3.91%
1Y price change	24.81%
1Y return CAGR	28.48%
1Y total return	28.46%
20-day SMA	$80.80
200-day SMA	$76.38
20Y price change	96.37%
20Y return CAGR	6.07%
20Y total return	225.04%
3M price change	-7.07%
3M total return	-6.48%
3Y price change	10.38%
3Y return CAGR	6.86%
3Y total return	22.03%
50-day SMA	$82.06
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$88.75
52-week high date	2026-09-10
52-week low	$55.58
52-week low date	2025-11-10
5Y price change	19.81%
5Y return CAGR	6.65%
5Y total return	38%
6M price change	9.6%
6M total return	11.02%
All-time high	$98.88
All-time high date	2022-04-21
All-time low	$0.13
All-time low date	1965-08-02
Average true range (ATR)	$2.00
Average volume	2.6M
Beta (1Y)	-0.5
Beta (2Y)	0.14
Beta (5Y)	0.63
Change from 52-week high	-12.89%
Change from 52-week low	39.1%
Change from all-time high	-21.81%
Change from all-time low	58,203.17%
Change from open	-0.76%
Day's gap	-0.38%
Dollar volume	$106.9M
High price	$78.11
Low price	$76.86
Monthly RSI	61.09
Open price	$77.90
Position in 52-week range	36%
Premarket change	0.26%
Premarket close	$78.20
Premarket price	$78.40
Premarket volume	1.1K
Previous close	$78.20
Price vs 150-day SMA	-2.3%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-4.32%
Price vs 200-day SMA	1.21%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-5.79%
Relative volume	0.53
RSI	35.56
Sharpe ratio	0.9
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.21
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.23
Sortino ratio	1.59
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.45
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.49
Volume	1.4M
Weekly RSI	48.13
YTD price change	34.48%
YTD total return	37.25%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	477.8M
Float percentage	99.14%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.21%
Shares change (YoY)	0.31%
Shares held by insiders	0.72%
Shares held by institutions	88.73%
Shares outstanding	482M
Short % of float	2.67%
Short % of shares	2.65%
Short ratio	3.4 days

Deeper analysis on ADM

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ADM report

What is the latest published ADM stock rating?

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is shown with Reduce in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ADM analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/ADM/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ADM?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives ADM a fair value of USD 72 and a potential value of USD 102. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ADM page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

ReduceADM · Fair value $71.5-11.1%

Read full analysis →

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM)

Our latest published analysis: ADM rated Reduce

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ADM

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All ADM indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on ADM

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	3.0
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	6.0
Profitability	5.0
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	7.5
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5