Align Technology Inc. (ALGN)

NASDAQ: ALGN · USD

$153

+1.09 (+0.7%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-09-20

Our latest published analysis: ALGN rated Reduce

Align Technology Inc.'s published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$121 / share

Potential value

$121 / share

Upside to FV

-17.8%

from $153

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$10.5B
Revenue (ttm)	4.1B
Net income (ttm)	413.6M
EPS (ttm)	$5.76
Shares out	71M
P/E (trailing)	26.6x
P/E (forward)	11.6x
Volume	1,083,301
Beta	1.67

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 4.1B
Net income (ttm): 413.6M
EPS (ttm): $5.76
P/E (trailing): 26.6x
P/E (forward): 11.6x
Market cap: $10.5B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$3.95B	$3.73B	$3.86B	$4.00B	$4.03B	+0.5%
Gross profit	$2.94B	$2.63B	$2.71B	$2.80B	$2.71B	-2.0%
Operating income	$976.4M	$642.6M	$643.3M	$607.6M	$545.8M	-13.5%
Net income	$772.0M	$361.6M	$445.1M	$421.4M	$410.4M	-14.6%
EPS (diluted)	$9.69	$4.61	$5.81	$5.62	$5.65	-12.6%
EBITDA	$1.09B	$779.8M	$643.3M	$816.8M	$765.9M	-8.3%
R&D	$250.3M	$305.3M	$346.8M	$364.2M	$369.9M	+10.3%
SG&A	$1.71B	$1.67B	$1.70B	$1.76B	$1.76B	+0.7%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	売り
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	売り
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	強い買い
ABBV	AbbVie Inc.	505.6B	80.8x	7.9x	17.7%	+3.7%	+29.1%	売り
ABT	Abbott Laboratories	177.6B	38.2x	3.7x	7.2%	+2.7%	-17.2%	縮小
ALNY	Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	31.1B	41.4x	6.4x	96.6%	+47.5%	-52.1%	強い買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$121.31

-17.8% from spot

The Base scenario assumes modal revenue compounding in low single digits, supported by steady teen Invisalign case adoption and stable international scanner installations. Under this path, operating margins expand modestly as European manufacturing automation takes effect, but unallocated corporate overhead limits operating leverage. Disconfirmation would occur if clear aligner volume contracts or operating margins fail to hold baseline levels by the end of FY2027. At an assessed probability of 60.0%, this scenario yields a target of $121.31, representing an expected return of -17.8% from $147.61 (as of 2026-09-18).

Consolidated revenue compounds at a modest low single-digit rate through the forecast horizon
Gross margins remain insulated above industry averages through proprietary SmartTrack manufacturing
Operating margins expand gradually toward normalized levels as regional manufacturing scales
Unallocated corporate expenses grow at an inflationary pace without outsized overhead restructuring
Diluted share count contracts steadily via ongoing share repurchases

Bull20%

Price target

$121.34

-17.8% from spot

The Bull scenario reflects accelerated adolescent and teen clear aligner penetration, rapid adoption of the latest iTero intraoral scanner platform, and faster international expansion across underpenetrated emerging dental markets. Fixed-cost absorption in manufacturing hubs accelerates operating margin expansion toward historical peaks. This path would be disconfirmed if adult case deferrals spread to the teen cohort or if scanner placement cadence decelerates. With an assessed probability of 20.0%, this outcome supports a target of $121.34, offering a return of -17.8% from $147.61 (as of 2026-09-18).

Accelerating adolescent case adoption and comprehensive treatment mix expansion
Rapid international adoption of next-generation intraoral scanning processes
Operating leverage in automated regional manufacturing hubs driving substantial margin expansion
Stabilization of discretionary healthcare consumer spending across North America and Europe

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($121.31). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
8.7%	$135	$138	$142	$146	$151
9.7%	$126	$128	$130	$133	$136
10.7%	$118	$120	$121	$123	$126
11.7%	$112	$113	$114	$116	$117
12.7%	$106	$107	$108	$109	$111

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E11.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E25.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE10.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC17.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All ALGN indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

274

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 274 of 274 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001097149
Company name	Align Technology, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	016255101
Earnings date	2026-10-28
Earnings time	amc
Employees	20,435
Employees change	-1,050
Employees growth	-4.89%
Enterprise value	$9.9B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1997
In index	SP500
Industry	Medical Instruments & Supplies
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US0162551016
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-27
Last earnings date	2026-10-28
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$10.9B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-02-03
Options	Yes
Price	$153.05
Price currency	USD
Sector	Healthcare
SIC code	3842
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	ALGN
U.S. state	Arizona
Website	https://www.aligntech.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	13.76x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	48.81x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	37.86x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	45.8x
Earnings yield	3.76%
EV/Earnings	23.92x
EV/EBIT	12.95x
EV/EBITDA	10.69x
EV/FCF	15.61x
EV/Sales	2.39x
FCF / EV yield	6.41%
FCF yield	5.83%
Forward EV/Sales	2.37x
Forward P/E	13.01x
Forward P/S	2.61x
Graham number	87.71804
Graham upside	-42.69%
Industry forward P/E	22.82x
Industry P/E	66.22x
Lynch fair value	$28.78
Lynch upside	-81.19%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	23.93x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	18.86x
P/B ratio	2.56x
P/E ratio	26.59x
P/FCF ratio	17.16x
P/OCF ratio	14.39x
P/S ratio	2.63x
PEG ratio	1.37x
Price / tangible book value	2.99x
Price/EBITDA ratio	11.75x
Sector forward P/E	23.56x
Sector P/E	50.08x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	18.45%
EBITDA margin	22.36%
Effective tax rate	27.3%
FCF margin	15.31%
Gross margin	70.74%
Operating margin	18.45%
Pretax margin	13.74%
Profit margin	9.99%
Profit per employee	$20,239
Profitable quarters	24
Profitable years	16
Revenue per employee	$202,571
ROA	7.56%
ROA (5Y)	7.76%
ROCE	16.94%
ROE	10.16%
ROE (5Y)	13.3%
ROIC	17.2%
ROIC (5Y)	18.81%
SBC / revenue	4.33%
Tax / revenue	3.75%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	-2.77%
EPS growth (Q)	-12.07%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-3.82%
EPS growth 10Y	10.87%
EPS growth 3Y	12.31%
EPS growth 5Y	-8.08%
EPS growth years	1
FCF growth	0.32%
FCF growth (Q)	46.58%
FCF growth (QoQ)	30.63%
FCF growth 3Y	1.18%
FCF growth 5Y	-6.68%
Gross profit growth	5.83%
Gross profit growth (Q)	6.96%
Gross profit growth 3Y	3.9%
Gross profit growth 5Y	2.56%
Net income growth	-5.49%
Net income growth (Q)	-13.09%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-3.97%
Net income growth 3Y	9.61%
Net income growth 5Y	-9.95%
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	3.37%
OCF growth (Q)	49.83%
OCF growth (QoQ)	27.62%
OCF growth 10Y	11.87%
OCF growth 3Y	-4.32%
OCF growth 5Y	-7.85%
Operating income growth	19.77%
Operating income growth (Q)	18.21%
Operating income growth 3Y	10.04%
Operating income growth 5Y	-2.89%
Revenue growth	4.41%
Revenue growth (Q)	4.32%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	1.55%
Revenue growth 10Y	15.91%
Revenue growth 3Y	3.47%
Revenue growth 5Y	3.57%
Revenue growth quarters	4
Revenue growth years	3

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-122.1M
Depreciation and amortization	$161.8M
EBIT	$763.9M
EBITDA	$925.7M
EPS	$5.76
FCF per share	$8.92
Financing cash flow	$-277.1M
Free cash flow	$633.6M
Free cash flow minus SBC	$454.4M
Gross profit	$2.9B
Income taxes	$155.3M
Investing cash flow	$-269.4M
Net cash flow	$201.6M
Net income	$413.6M
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$576.5M
Operating income	$763.9M
Revenue	$4.1B
Stock-based compensation	$179.1M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	4.94
Book value per share	$59.41
Debt / EBITDA	0.12
Debt / equity	0.03
Debt / FCF	0.19
Goodwill	$497.3M
Long-term assets	$3.8B
Long-term liabilities	$276.5M
Net cash (debt)	$981.7M
Net cash / market cap	9.03%
Net cash growth	26.17%
Net debt / EBITDA	-1.06
Net debt / equity	-0.23
Net debt / FCF	-1.55
Piotroski F-Score	7
Property, plant and equipment	$1.2B
Shareholders' equity	$4.2B
Tangible book value	$3.6B
Tangible book value per share	$51.09
Total assets	$6.4B
Total cash	$1.1B
Total debt	$120.8M
Total liabilities	$2.2B
WACC	13.3%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.66
Current assets	$2.7B
Current liabilities	$1.9B
Current ratio	1.4
Inventory turnover	5.31
Net working capital	$-313.9M
Quick ratio	1.2
Working capital	$754.5M
Working capital turnover	6.86

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	2.75%
Dividend yield	0%
Shareholder yield	2.75%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	79.87%
10Y return CAGR	6.05%
10Y total return	79.87%
150-day SMA	$166.39
15Y price change	749.75%
15Y return CAGR	15.33%
15Y total return	749.75%
1D price change	0.72%
1M price change	3.11%
1M total return	3.11%
1W price change	0.56%
1W total return	0.56%
1Y price change	11.57%
1Y return CAGR	11.58%
1Y total return	11.57%
20-day SMA	$146.81
200-day SMA	$168.98
20Y price change	943.72%
20Y return CAGR	12.44%
20Y total return	943.72%
3M price change	-9.94%
3M total return	-9.94%
3Y price change	-20.74%
3Y return CAGR	-7.45%
3Y total return	-20.74%
50-day SMA	$150.78
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$200.44
52-week high date	2026-04-21
52-week low	$130.23
52-week low date	2025-11-18
5Y price change	-74.96%
5Y return CAGR	-24.19%
5Y total return	-74.96%
6M price change	-18.06%
6M total return	-18.06%
All-time high	$737.45
All-time high date	2021-09-23
All-time low	$1.26
All-time low date	2002-11-13
Average true range (ATR)	$4.05
Average volume	931.5K
Beta (1Y)	1.07
Beta (2Y)	1.29
Beta (5Y)	1.67
Change from 52-week high	-23.64%
Change from 52-week low	17.52%
Change from all-time high	-79.48%
Change from all-time low	11,911.11%
Change from open	0.74%
Day's gap	-0.01%
Dollar volume	$165.8M
High price	$155.18
Low price	$151.35
Monthly RSI	41.92
Open price	$151.93
Position in 52-week range	44.39%
Premarket change	1.68%
Premarket close	$151.95
Premarket price	$154.50
Previous close	$151.95
Price vs 150-day SMA	-9.05%
Price vs 20-day SMA	3.08%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-10.44%
Price vs 50-day SMA	0.37%
Relative volume	1.16
RSI	53.6
Sharpe ratio	0.37
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	-0.24
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	-0.38
Sortino ratio	0.72
Sortino ratio (3Y)	-0.2
Sortino ratio (5Y)	-0.4
Volume	1.1M
Weekly RSI	44
YTD price change	-3.08%
YTD total return	-3.08%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	66.8M
Float percentage	94.09%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.13%
Shares change (YoY)	-2.75%
Shares held by insiders	3.42%
Shares held by institutions	103.97%
Shares outstanding	71M
Short % of float	6.29%
Short % of shares	5.92%
Short ratio	4.6 days

Deeper analysis on ALGN

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ALGN report

What is the latest published ALGN stock rating?

Align Technology Inc. is shown with Reduce in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ALGN analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-09-20, lives at /stocks/ALGN/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ALGN?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-09-20 gives ALGN a fair value of USD 121 and a potential value of USD 121. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ALGN page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-09-20). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

ReduceALGN · Fair value $121-17.8%

Read full analysis →

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	3.0
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	7.0
Profitability	5.0
Revenue Growth	4.5
Risk Assessment	6.5
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	6.0
Capital Efficiency	3.5

Align Technology Inc. (ALGN)

Our latest published analysis: ALGN rated Reduce

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ALGN

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All ALGN indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on ALGN

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴