Arm Holdings plc (ARM)

NASDAQ: ARM · USD

$236

+9.31 (+4.1%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-02

Our latest published analysis: ARM rated Sell

Arm Holdings plc's published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$54.9 / share

Potential value

$91.9 / share

Upside to FV

-81.4%

from $236

Moat

9/10

Wide

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$314.7B
Revenue (ttm)	5.2B
Net income (ttm)	1B
EPS (ttm)	$0.98
Shares out	1.1B
P/E (trailing)	240.8x
P/E (forward)	151.5x
Volume	3,374,178
Beta	3.79

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 5.2B
Net income (ttm): 1B
EPS (ttm): $0.98
P/E (trailing): 240.8x
P/E (forward): 151.5x
Market cap: $314.7B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2022-03-31	2023-03-31	2024-03-31	2025-03-31	2026-03-31	Trend
Revenue	$2.70B	$2.68B	$3.23B	$4.01B	$4.92B	+16.2%
Gross profit	$2.48B	$2.48B	$3.00B	$3.80B	$4.55B	+16.3%
Operating income	$786.0M	$671.0M	$212.0M	$720.0M	$1.16B	+10.1%
Net income	$549.0M	$524.0M	$306.0M	$792.0M	$904.0M	+13.3%
EPS (diluted)	—	$0.51	$1.25	$1.64	$1.53	+44.2%
EBITDA	$962.5M	$841.2M	$374.0M	$902.9M	$1.41B	+9.9%
R&D	$945.0M	$1.08B	$1.93B	$2.01B	$2.78B	+30.9%
SG&A	$897.0M	$762.0M	$983.0M	$984.0M	$1.12B	+5.6%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ASML	ASML Holding N.V.	647.9B	42.6x	14.2x	92.1%	+17.2%	+57.7%	売り
DDOG	Datadog, Inc.	100B	567.7x	25.6x	2.9%	+39.0%	+75.6%	売り
FSLR	First Solar, Inc.	18.9B	10.8x	3.5x	20.6%	+12.6%	-29.6%	強い買い
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	売り
ACN	Accenture plc	144.3B	18.0x	2.0x	27.9%	+8.0%	+0.4%	ホールド
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	強い買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$54.92

-81.4% from spot

The base case represents the house modal path where Arm successfully transitions licensees to the v9 architecture, achieving double-digit royalty growth despite a mature smartphone market. Capex gradually normalizes from FY2026 peak levels ($545M), allowing free cash flow conversion to improve over time. Consensus FY2028 EPS of $3.05 is achieved, and long-term operating margins reach 36.0%, yielding an intrinsic fair value of $54.92.

FY2027 revenue reaches $6,046M (22.89% growth) and FY2028 revenue scales to $8,236M (36.22% growth).
Operating margin expands sequentially from 24.0% in FY2027 to 28.0% in FY2028, reaching 36.0% by FY2031.
Reinvestment rate moderates from 35.0% in FY2027 to 18.0% by FY2031 as transformation capex normalizes.
Diluted share count expands at 1.2% in FY2027, moderating to 0.5% by FY2031, accounting for ongoing share-based compensation dilution.
Terminal P/E multiple of 32.0x reflects an appropriate asset-light IP premium over peer medians (peer ASML forward P/E is 31.06x).

Bull20%

Price target

$91.94

-68.8% from spot

In the bull case, rapid adoption of custom silicon across hyperscalers (demonstrated by Google Axion and extensive Neoverse core deployments) accelerates revenue expansion well beyond consensus. Royalty growth sustains elevated momentum through FY2029, while custom silicon revenue breaks out as a distinct revenue line in FY2028. Operating margins expand substantially as upfront R&D investments yield high-margin compounding cash flows, driving strong EPS growth.

Revenue compounds at 30%+ annually through FY2028, driven by accelerated Neoverse datacenter core deployments and turnkey custom silicon scaling.
Blended royalty rates double as Armv9 penetration reaches broad mobile and edge adoption, expanding royalty growth above 20%.
Operating margin expands toward 40% as transformation capex normalizes toward industry intensity of 4.4% of revenue.
Terminal valuation multiple sustains at an elevated premium over peer medians, supported by multi-decade IP licensing duration.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($54.92). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%	3.5%
16.2%	$55.1	$55.1	$55.1	$55.2	$55.2
16.2%	$55.1	$55.1	$55.1	$55.1	$55.1
16.2%	$55.1	$55.1	$54.9	$55.1	$55.1
16.2%	$55.0	$55.1	$55.1	$55.1	$55.1
16.2%	$55.0	$55.0	$55.0	$55.0	$55.0

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E151.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E301.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE13.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC14.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All ARM indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

254

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 254 of 254 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001973239
Company name	Arm Holdings plc
Country	United Kingdom
Country code	US
CUSIP number	042068205
Earnings date	2026-11-04
Earnings time	amc
Employees	9,584
Employees change	1,254
Employees growth	15.05%
Enterprise value	$248.6B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	March
Founded	1990
In index	NASDAQ100
Industry	Semiconductors
IPO date	2023-09-14
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US0420682058
Last 10-K release date	2026-05-26
Last earnings date	2026-07-29
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$252B
Market cap category	Mega-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-04
Options	Yes
Price	$235.92
Price currency	USD
Sector	Technology
SIC code	3674
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	ARM
Tags	artificial-intelligence
Website	https://www.arm.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	126.16x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	306.72x
Earnings yield	0.42%
EV/Earnings	234.78x
EV/EBIT	274.78x
EV/EBITDA	230.43x
EV/FCF	162.75x
EV/Sales	47.54x
FCF / EV yield	0.61%
FCF yield	0.61%
Forward EV/Sales	37.69x
Forward P/E	94.88x
Forward P/S	38.22x
Graham number	13.34617
Graham upside	-94.26%
Industry forward P/E	13.58x
Industry P/E	26.27x
Lynch fair value	$24.49
Lynch upside	-89.47%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	705.99x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	264.37x
P/B ratio	28.04x
P/E ratio	240.81x
P/FCF ratio	165.01x
P/OCF ratio	118.68x
P/S ratio	48.2x
PEG ratio	3.12x
Price / tangible book value	36.6x
Price/EBITDA ratio	233.63x
Sector forward P/E	18.38x
Sector P/E	32.76x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	17.3%
EBITDA margin	20.63%
Effective tax rate	17.41%
FCF margin	29.21%
Gross margin	97.54%
Operating margin	17.3%
Pretax margin	24.52%
Profit margin	20.25%
Profit per employee	$108,932
Profitable quarters	11
Profitable years	6
Revenue per employee	$537,980
ROA	5.41%
ROCE	8.93%
ROE	13.35%
ROIC	14.16%
ROIC (5Y)	19.02%
SBC / revenue	22.38%
Tax / revenue	4.27%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	48.43%
EPS growth (Q)	108.33%
EPS growth (QoQ)	-15.1%
EPS growth 3Y	35.92%
EPS growth quarters	2
EPS growth years	2
FCF growth	123.11%
FCF growth (Q)	296.07%
FCF growth (QoQ)	279.03%
FCF growth 3Y	24.63%
Gross profit growth	25.63%
Gross profit growth (Q)	22.48%
Gross profit growth 3Y	25.4%
Net income growth	49.36%
Net income growth (Q)	107.69%
Net income growth (QoQ)	-13.74%
Net income growth 3Y	37.23%
Net income growth quarters	2
Net income growth years	2
OCF growth	105.5%
OCF growth (Q)	171.69%
OCF growth (QoQ)	246.92%
OCF growth 3Y	34.74%
Operating income growth	16.91%
Operating income growth (Q)	-14.04%
Operating income growth 3Y	19.14%
Revenue growth	25.12%
Revenue growth (Q)	22.41%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-13.49%
Revenue growth 3Y	24.65%
Revenue growth quarters	12
Revenue growth years	3

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-588M
Depreciation and amortization	$171.7M
EBIT	$892M
EBITDA	$1.1B
EPS	$0.98
FCF per share	$1.41
Financing cash flow	$-751M
Free cash flow	$1.5B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$352M
Gross profit	$5B
Income taxes	$220M
Investing cash flow	$-220M
Net cash flow	$1.1B
Net income	$1B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$940M
Operating income	$892M
Revenue	$5.2B
Stock-based compensation	$1.2B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	43.93
Book value per share	$8.08
Debt / EBITDA	0.43
Debt / equity	0.06
Debt / FCF	0.32
Goodwill	$1.6B
Long-term assets	$4.9B
Long-term liabilities	$1.4B
Net cash (debt)	$3.4B
Net cash / market cap	1.37%
Net cash growth	35.58%
Net debt / EBITDA	-3.2
Net debt / equity	-0.39
Net debt / FCF	-2.26
Piotroski F-Score	7
Property, plant and equipment	$1.4B
Shareholders' equity	$8.6B
Tangible book value	$6.8B
Tangible book value per share	$6.36
Total assets	$11.2B
Total cash	$3.9B
Total debt	$485M
Total liabilities	$2.6B
WACC	25.03%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.5
Current assets	$6.3B
Current liabilities	$1.2B
Current ratio	5.25
Net working capital	$1.3B
Quick ratio	5.06
Working capital	$5.1B
Working capital turnover	1.11

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-0.66%
Dividend yield	0%
Shareholder yield	-0.66%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
150-day SMA	$263.63
1D price change	4.11%
1M price change	-24.6%
1M total return	-24.6%
1W price change	5.85%
1W total return	5.85%
1Y price change	30.99%
1Y return CAGR	31.02%
1Y total return	30.99%
20-day SMA	$252.13
200-day SMA	$227.81
3M price change	-12.15%
3M total return	-12.15%
3Y price change	376.64%
3Y return CAGR	68.27%
3Y total return	376.64%
50-day SMA	$260.00
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$452.70
52-week high date	2026-06-18
52-week low	$100.02
52-week low date	2026-02-05
6M price change	8.38%
6M total return	8.38%
After-hours change	0.03%
After-hours close	$235.92
After-hours price	$236.00
All-time high	$452.70
All-time high date	2026-06-18
All-time low	$46.50
All-time low date	2023-10-20
Average true range (ATR)	$14.44
Average volume	4.5M
Beta (1Y)	2.32
Beta (2Y)	2.44
Beta (5Y)	3.79
Change from 52-week high	-47.89%
Change from 52-week low	135.87%
Change from all-time high	-48.31%
Change from all-time low	403.18%
Change from open	2.28%
Day's gap	1.8%
Dollar volume	$796M
High price	$236.90
Low price	$228.32
Monthly RSI	56.06
Open price	$230.67
Position in 52-week range	88.58%
Premarket change	2.07%
Premarket close	$226.60
Premarket price	$231.28
Premarket volume	95.6K
Previous close	$226.60
Price vs 150-day SMA	-11.25%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-7.2%
Price vs 200-day SMA	2.71%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-10.01%
Relative volume	0.75
Return from IPO open	314.74%
Return from IPO price	356.22%
RSI	43.36
Sharpe ratio	0.68
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.98
Sortino ratio	1.19
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.73
Volume	3.4M
Weekly RSI	47.86
YTD price change	114.05%
YTD total return	114.05%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	142.6M
Float percentage	13.35%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.94%
Shares change (YoY)	0.66%
Shares held by insiders	0.06%
Shares held by institutions	9.27%
Shares outstanding	1.1B
Short % of shares	11.15%
Short ratio	2.9 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	461

Deeper analysis on ARM

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ARM report

What is the latest published ARM stock rating?

Arm Holdings plc is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-02. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ARM analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-02, lives at /stocks/ARM/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ARM?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-02 gives ARM a fair value of USD 55 and a potential value of USD 92. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ARM page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-02). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellARM · Fair value $54.9-81.4%

Read full analysis →

Arm Holdings plc (ARM)

Our latest published analysis: ARM rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ARM

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All ARM indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on ARM

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	8.5
Profitability	5.5
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	7.0
Competitive Moat	9.0
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	3.5