ASML Holding N.V. is the world's sole provider of EUV lithography systems, positioning it as the indispensable architect of the AI era. Fair value range: low $1436, high $1799, with mid-point at $1611.
Stock analysis
ASML Holding N.V.ASML ASML Holding N.V. fair value $1,611–$1,799
Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$1,611
Margin of safety
+14.0%
Confidence
85/100
Moat
10/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$1,386.23Price
FV $1,611
High $1,799.15
ASML Holding N.V. is the world's sole provider of EUV lithography systems, positioning it as the indispensable architect of the AI era.
EUV Monopoly
ASML is the only company capable of producing EUV lithography machines, creating an impenetrable barrier to entry for high-end chip manufacturing.
AI Compute Supercycle
The massive investment in GPU and AI-accelerator clusters by hyperscalers directly translates to increased High-NA EUV orders to support smaller, more efficient nodes.
Exceptional ROIC
Consistent returns on invested capital above 40% demonstrate superior capital allocation and the ability to self-fund massive R&D requirements.
§2 ベアケース
A bear case for ASML centers on geopolitical fragmentation and a potential 'air pocket' in semiconductor capex if AI ROI fails to materialize for hyperscalers.
このテーゼが崩れる経路
Geopolitical Decoupling
30%· Significant
Expansion of export controls to include older DUV systems or service bans on installed Chinese base.
FV impact
15-20% revenue hit
Trigger
12-24 months
AI Capital Fatigue
15%· Moderate
Hyperscalers pause data center expansion due to lack of immediate software monetization, leading to foundry order cancellations.
FV impact
Margin compression and multiple de-rating
Trigger
18 months
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標
現在
トリガーしきい値
EUV Order Backlog
>€35B
<€25B
Gross Margin
52.6%
<48%
§3 財務履歴
損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目
T−0
CAGR
売上高
$32.67B
+15.6% YoY
売上総利益
$17.26B
52.8% Margin
営業利益
$11.30B
34.6% Margin
純利益
$9.61B
29.4% Margin
品質スコア
Accrual Quality
High
OCF/NI ratio of 1.32x indicates high earnings quality and cash conversion.
Solvency
Strong
Net cash position of $8.5B provides significant buffer for cyclical downturns.
Altman Zスコア
12.39
Well above safe zone, indicating negligible bankruptcy risk.
セクション 3
Numbers analysis
キャッシュフロー
ASML generated $11.0B in Free Cash Flow in 2025. The company maintains a shareholder-friendly policy, returning over $8.5B through buybacks and dividends in the last fiscal year.
資本配分
Management prioritizes R&D and Capex for High-NA EUV expansion, followed by a growing dividend and opportunistic buybacks. This strategy has successfully maintained a multi-year lead in technology.
個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加
完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Based on our latest independent analysis, ASML looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $1386 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $1611 (range $1436–$1799), which implies roughly 16.2% upside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for ASML is $1436–$1799, with a midpoint of $1611. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for ASML Holding N.V.'s archetype.
Our current rating for ASML is Buy with a confidence score of 85/100. ASML is a once-in-a-generation monopoly at the heart of the semiconductor industry. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for ASML Holding N.V. are: Geopolitical Decoupling; AI Capital Fatigue. The single biggest risk is Severe geopolitical escalation leading to a total ban on DUV service in China.
Our current rating for ASML is Buy, issued with a confidence score of 85/100 and a moat score of 10/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($1436–$1799) versus the current price of $1386.
ASML Holding N.V. is classified as a growth infrastructure stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for ASML.
