Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
NASDAQ: AVGO · Real-Time Price · USD
$430
+17.45 (+4.2%)· Live
StockMarketAgent Research
Our analysis: AVGO rated Sell
AVGO is rated Sell at $412.56 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $203.48, implying -50.68% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Fair value (mid)
$203 / share
$147 – $261
Upside to FV
-50.7%
from $430
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10
Biggest opportunity
Value: Deeply overvalued. The implied 30%+ 10-year growth rate is mathematically improbable.
Biggest risk
Hyperscaler Silicon Independence
Momentum: Dangerously extended. The market multiple is detached from fundamental DCF gravity.
Recommended action
Sell
AVGO is rated Sell at $412.56 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $203.48, implying -50.68% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 88/100.
Position sizing playbook →| Market cap | $1.95T | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue (ttm) | 68.3B | |
| Net income (ttm) | 25B | |
| EPS (ttm) | $5.13 | |
| Shares out | 4.7B | |
| P/E (trailing) | 83.8x | |
| P/E (forward) | 22.8x | |
| Dividend | $2.60 (0.60%) | |
| Volume | 22,561,430 | |
| Beta | 1.44 | |
| Price target | $451 | +4.9% |
Market data
Price
Recent price action with selectable time range.
Broadcom Inc.AVGO
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Financial snapshot
- Revenue (ttm)
- 68.3B
- Net income (ttm)
- 25B
- EPS (ttm)
- $5.13
- P/E (trailing)
- 83.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 22.8x
- Market cap
- $1.95T
| Item | P1 | P2 | P3 | P4 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | 2022-10-31 | 2023-10-31 | 2024-10-31 | 2025-10-31 | Trend |
| Revenue | $33.20B | $35.82B | $51.57B | $63.89B | +24.4% |
| Gross profit | $22.10B | $24.69B | $32.51B | $43.29B | +25.1% |
| Operating income | $14.28B | $16.45B | $15.00B | $26.08B | +22.2% |
| Net income | $11.50B | $14.08B | $5.90B | $23.13B | +26.2% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.65 | $3.30 | $1.23 | $4.77 | +21.6% |
| EBITDA | $19.16B | $20.55B | $23.88B | $34.71B | +21.9% |
| R&D | $4.92B | $5.25B | $9.31B | $10.98B | +30.7% |
| SG&A | $1.38B | $1.59B | $4.96B | $4.21B | +45.0% |
Fair-value bridge
- Fair value (low)
- $147
- Fair value (mid)
- $203
- Fair value (high)
- $261
- Current price
- $430
- Upside to mid
- -50.7%
Valuation models
| Model | Fair value (mid) | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | $235 | 35% |
| Owner earnings | $214 | 25% |
| Forward earnings | $150 | 15% |
| Discounted earnings | $145 | 10% |
| FCFF DCF | $161 | 10% |
| Peg adjusted peer | $286 | 5% |
| Reverse DCF | $0.00 | 0% |
| Ddm | $36.01 | 0% |
Analyst consensus
Recommendation
Strong Buy
Price target
$451
+4.9%
In the news
Latest news · AVGO
Recent company headlines from major financial publishers.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.95T
- P/E (trailing)
- 83.8x
- P/E (forward)
- 22.8x
- P/S
- 29.8x
- P/B
- 25.5x
- PEG
- 0.77
- EV / EBITDA
- 56.1x
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 76.7%
- Operating margin
- 41.9%
- ROE
- 33.4%
- ROA
- 10.7%
- ROIC
- 21.3%
Balance sheet
- Debt / equity
- 0.83
- Current ratio
- 1.90
- Quick ratio
- 1.67
Trading
- Beta
- 1.44
- Volume
- 22,561,430
- Dividend yield
- 0.6%
Scenarios & expected return
Probability-weighted: -50.7% expected return to fair value
Bull20%
Price target
$261.25
-36.7% from spot
AI networking demand outstrips supply for years. VMware integration pushes operating margins past 55%. Despite perfect execution, the current valuation is so stretched that intrinsic value only hits $261.
- AI silicon and networking growth continues unabated.
- VMware synergies exceed the baseline $8B target.
- Terminal multiple remains highly elevated at 25x.
Base60%
Price target
$203.48
-50.7% from spot
Broadcom integrates VMware and rides the AI wave, but scale gravity forces growth deceleration. A $1.9T firm mathematically cannot compound at 30% forever. Multiples compress, yielding a $203 fair value.
- AI growth fades predictably after year 3.
- VMware stabilizes with moderate enterprise customer churn.
- Terminal multiple compresses to the historical 20x average.
Bear20%
Price target
$147.02
-64.4% from spot
The AI bubble bursts into a severe digestion cycle. Aggressive VMware monetization backfires, causing structural ARR erosion. The heavy debt load amplifies the downturn, collapsing the multiple to $147.
- Hyperscalers shift aggressively away from AVGO custom silicon.
- VMware integration sparks massive enterprise customer defection.
- Terminal multiple compresses to a cyclical 15x low.
Valuation models & bridge
Each model produces an independent fair value. Weighted average = $203.
| Model | Weight | FV / share | vs spot | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multi stage moat fade | 35% | $235 | -45.3% | |
| Owner earnings | 25% | $214 | -50.1% | |
| Forward earnings | 15% | $150 | -65.1% | |
| Discounted earnings | 10% | $145 | -66.2% | |
| FCFF DCF | 10% | $161 | -62.5% | |
| Peg adjusted peer | 5% | $286 | -33.4% | |
| Reverse DCF | 0% | $0.00 | -100.0% | |
| Ddm | 0% | $36.0 | -91.6% | |
| Composite FV (weighted) | 100% | $203 | -50.7% |
Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth
| Ke ↓ / g → | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.7% | $234 | $250 | $268 | $290 | $316 |
| 10.7% | $207 | $219 | $234 | $250 | $268 |
| 11.7% | $186 | $196 | $207 | $219 | $234 |
| 12.7% | $168 | $176 | $186 | $196 | $207 |
| 13.7% | $154 | $161 | $168 | $176 | $186 |
Scorecard
Factor radar (left) · 9-category weighted composite (right)
Valuation6.0
Management7.3
Balance Sheet6.0
Profitability8.5
Revenue Growth7.5
Risk Assessment6.5
Competitive Moat9.0
Earnings Quality7.5
Capital Efficiency6.5
Weighted composite
7.2/10
Above average| Category | Weight | Score | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Management | 11% | 7.3 | |
| Balance Sheet | 11% | 6.0 | |
| Profitability | 11% | 8.5 | |
| Revenue Growth | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Risk Assessment | 11% | 6.5 | |
| Competitive Moat | 11% | 9.0 | |
| Earnings Quality | 11% | 7.5 | |
| Capital Efficiency | 11% | 6.5 |
Position sizing & entry playbook
Pre-committed rules, followed irrespective of news flow.
Conviction tier
High
Confidence 88/100
Target weight
Zero weight. The current risk/reward asymmetry is overwhelmingly negative at a $412 market price.
of equity sleeve
Current / pullbacks
$430
Thesis break
Risk to thesis
- Sell existing holdings immediately. The equity is trading 100% above intrinsic value, pricing in mathematically impossible growth for a mature mega-cap.
Calendar
Next earnings
Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.
Upcoming
DateLoading
Window—
EPS estimate—
Revenue estimate—
Sector percentile context
Refreshed 2026-05-10 22:07 UTC
Forward P/E22.8
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Trailing P/E0
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROE33.4
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
ROIC21.3
P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a
Benchmarks · 1M
S&P 500n/a
Nasdaq Compositen/a
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Russell 2000n/a
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Market & fundamental data
Available fields
284
Groups with data
11
Currency
USD
Showing 284 of 284 available metrics for this ticker.
Deeper analysis on AVGO
14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need
Forecast
Bull, base, and bear cases with expected-return framing.
Valuation
Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.
Sensitivity
Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.
Risks
Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.
Earnings
Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.
Position sizing
Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.
Financials
Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.
Peers
Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.
Moat
Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.
Industry cycle
Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.
Scorecard
Six-factor overlay and 9-category weighted scorecard.
Recommendation
Final action, action steps, opportunity, and biggest risk.
Perspectives
Growth, value, and income investor reads.
Archive
Prior monthly reports and rating changes.
Frequently asked questions
About this AVGO report
What is the current AVGO stock rating?
Broadcom Inc. is currently shown with Sell in the latest report. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.
Where can I read the full AVGO analysis?
The full report lives at /stocks/AVGO/analysis. The bare ticker page is a product hub that summarizes the latest read and sends readers into the relocated analysis tabs without making the analysis surface depend on the hub.
What fair-value range is used for AVGO?
The latest report frames AVGO around $147 to $261. Treat that range as the entry point, then check the valuation, sensitivity, and bear-case tabs before making an investment decision.
How often is the AVGO page updated?
The hub updates with the latest published stock report and live backend market data. The analysis pages remain reachable under /analysis, so a hub rollback does not remove the report reader.
SellAVGO · Fair value $203-50.7% · Confidence 88/100