任意の製品分析
許可いただいた場合、プライバシーに配慮した限定的な分析を使用し、どのリサーチ経路が有効かを把握します。広告トラッカーやセッション録画は使用しません。この選択は設定で変更できます。詳しくは プライバシーポリシー.
Accelerated manufacturing stabilization enabling 737 assembly to smoothly achieve rate 52 per month and widebody 787 to reach rate 10, converting the >6,200 commercial aircraft backlog into revenue ahead of consensus $112,819.8M for FY2027.
737 monthly delivery run rate remaining capped below 38 aircraft per month over the next 18 months.
We rate The Boeing Company (BA) a Sell with a composite fair value of $134.94 per share, representing an implied downside of 30.3% from the October 2, 2026 price of $193.56 (or a 43.4% market price premium). While equity markets price in an aggressive, uninterrupted operational recovery to rate 52 on the 737 MAX, ongoing Tier 2 and Tier 3 propulsion bottlenecks, deep FY2025 Commercial Airplanes operating deficits (-$7,079M), negative free cash flow (-$1,886M), and $48,362M in total debt leave valuation heavily skewed to the downside.2356
At the prevailing market price of $193.56, the shares trade at an implied return of -30.3% and a 43.4% premium to intrinsic fair value. This intrinsic valuation diverges by -45.8% from the present-value equivalent ($248.88) of the sell-side analyst consensus 12-month target mean of $273.42. While external sell-side targets assume uninhibited delivery acceleration, our valuation discounts multi-year manufacturing friction at an equity cost of capital of 9.86% and WACC of 9.29%.23
Assembly Rhythm and Supply Constraints: The primary risk to equity holders centers on manufacturing execution within Commercial Airplanes (BCA), which generated an operating deficit of -$7,079M on $41,494M of revenue in FY2025. Although management reaffirmed plans to achieve rate 52 on the 737 MAX, factory pause days were instituted to allow the supply base to recover. Furthermore, industry disclosures from engine manufacturers and sub-tier casting and forging suppliers confirm persistent capacity shortfalls relative to targeted airframer assembly rates. If 737 monthly delivery rates remain capped below 38 aircraft per month, fixed overhead cannot be absorbed, cementing BCA losses and triggering severe downside impairment to intrinsic valuation.58
Balance Sheet Burden and Cash Flow Deficits: Consolidated financial performance in FY2025 highlighted significant cash generation headwinds, with free cash flow settling at -$1,886M under elevated capital expenditures of $2,942M (1.51x depreciation and amortization) despite positive operating cash flow of $1,065M. Boeing carries $48,362M of total debt with a pre-tax cost of debt of 8.81% against cash reserves of $10,921M. With near-term debt maturities looming, failure to expand operating cash flows leaves the company vulnerable to liquidity strain or dilutive equity offerings beyond the current 789.79M shares outstanding.2367
Countervailing Drivers — Global Services and Order Backlog: Supporting the company's narrow economic moat is an extensive commercial order backlog exceeding 6,200 aircraft, underpinned by diversified global demand where Non-US customers generated $41,380M or 46.3% of FY2025 revenue, spanning Asia ($16,466M), Europe ($11,419M), and the Middle East ($7,023M). Furthermore, Boeing Global Services provides high-margin ballast, generating $13,474M of operating income on $20,923M of revenue in FY2025. However, recurring charges on fixed-price defense development programs, such as the $280M reach-forward loss on VC-25B in 2026Q2, compress full-year Defense, Space & Security margins to approximately 2.5%, well behind defense peers such as General Dynamics at 10.38%.458
Strategic Perspective and Recommendation: Boeing trades at a forward P/E multiple of 49.51x, reflecting an aggressive valuation that leaves no room for manufacturing pauses or contract write-downs. Even after post-earnings upward revisions lifted FY2027 consensus EPS to $4.19 and revenue to $112,819.8M, consensus FY2026 EPS was revised sharply downward by -212.9% to -1.08. Because present intrinsic value of $134.94 sits 30.3% below market quotes, investors should avoid or liquidate exposure.13
Boeing holds an extensive commercial order backlog exceeding 6,200 aircraft, driven by broad international fleet demand where Non-US regions generate $41,380M or 46.3% of FY2025 revenue, including $16,466M in Asia, $11,419M in Europe, and $7,023M in the Middle East.58
Boeing Global Services provides structural earnings ballast, generating $13,474M of operating income on $20,923M of revenue in FY2025, delivering stable 64.4% operating margins that help fund corporate liquidity while manufacturing operations stabilize.8
If 737 MAX production successfully scales toward rate 52 per month and widebody 787 reaches rate 10, fixed-overhead absorption will eliminate BCA operating losses (-$7,079M in FY2025) and drive consensus FY2027 revenue toward $112,819.8M.158
The Boeing Company is rated Sell with a fair value of $134.94 per share, representing an implied downside of 30.3% from the October 2, 2026 price of $193.56. Although Boeing possesses structural competitive advantages through its duopoly position, massive order backlog exceeding 6,200 aircraft, and high-margin Global Services cash flow ($13,474M operating income in FY2025), prevailing market pricing fully discounts a flawless production ramp to rate 52. With Commercial Airplanes sustaining a -$7,079M operating deficit, free cash flow remaining negative at -$1,886M, and total debt standing at $48,362M, risk-reward is asymmetric to the downside.23568
Its strategy is centered on successful execution in healthy core businesses – Commercial Airplanes (BCA), Defense, Space & Security (BDS) and Global Services (BGS). BCA is committed to offering airplanes that deliver superior design, safety, quality, efficiency and value to customers around the world. BDS integrates its resources in defense, intelligence, communications, security, space and services to deliver capability-driven solutions to customers. BGS provides parts, maintenance, modifications, logistics support, training, data analytics and information-based services to commercial and government customers worldwide. BGS segment revenue and costs include certain products and services provided to other segments.
Revenue on commercial spare parts contracts is recognized at the point in time when a spare part is delivered to the customer.
A rigorous multi-factor stress test demonstrates severe downside vulnerability when persistent manufacturing friction coincides with balance-sheet leverage. In this scenario, Tier 2/3 propulsion bottlenecks and casting constraints restrict 737 assembly rates below 38 aircraft per month for 18 months, forcing repeated factory pause days and unabsorbed fixed overhead. This entrenchment preserves Commercial Airplanes operating losses near FY2025 levels (-$7,079M) and prevents consolidated revenue from advancing toward consensus FY2027 projections of $112,819.8M. Simultaneously, ongoing engineering write-downs on fixed-price defense contracts (following the $280M VC-25B loss in 2026Q2) hold BDS margins at ~2.5%. Consolidated free cash flow remains negative beyond FY2025's deficit of -$1,886M amidst continuing capex obligations ($2,942M in FY2025), eroding cash reserves ($10,921M) against $48,362M in total debt. As FY2027 diluted EPS collapses toward the consensus low-end estimate of $2.47 and market exit multiples de-rate by 20% to 13.6x, Boeing's equity value degrades toward the lower credible valuation bound of $89.06, representing a -54.0% loss from the October 2, 2026 price of $193.56.
The downside case reflects persistent Tier 2/3 casting and propulsion bottlenecks that restrict 737 assembly rates below 38 per month, entrenching Commercial Airplanes operating losses (-$7,079M in FY2025) and extending negative free cash flow (-$1,886M in FY2025). Additional drag from fixed-price defense development write-downs ($280M on VC-25B in 2026Q2) and high debt obligations ($48,362M) compress earnings to the consensus low of $2.47 EPS, pulling equity valuation toward the lower credible bound of $89.06.
Persistent Tier 2/3 propulsion supply chain bottlenecks highlighted at Farnborough and casting/forging capital constraints cap 737 monthly assembly rates below 38 aircraft per month, entrenching Commercial Airplanes operating losses (-$7,079M in FY2025) and preventing revenue expansion toward consensus $112,820M in FY2027.158
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Persistent Tier 2 and Tier 3 propulsion bottlenecks and casting/forging capital constraints cap 737 assembly rates below 38 per month, entrenching Commercial Airplanes operating losses (-$7,079M in FY2025) and preventing revenue expansion toward consensus FY2027 levels of $112,819.8M.
現在:Assembly pace constrained below 38/month in 2026 with production line pause days utilized
警戒条件<38 aircraft per month through Q4 2026
Boeing's economic moat is rated Narrow (score 6.5) based on the structural advantages of high switching costs in its vast commercial installed base, efficient scale within the global aerospace manufacturing duopoly, and intangible regulatory certification assets. The commercial jet transport industry is characterized by high barriers to entry where only Boeing and Airbus possess the tooling, engineering depth, and global distribution necessary to produce narrowbody and widebody passenger jets at scale. Boeing's commercial backlog of more than 6,200 aircraft provides multi-year revenue visibility across the globe, with Non-US customers accounting for $41,380M or 46.3% of FY2025 revenue, including $16,466M in Asia and $11,419M in Europe.
Despite these structural advantages, the moat cannot be classified as Wide because Boeing has generated prolonged economic value destruction during its manufacturing crisis. Return on invested capital sits at -8.44%, failing to cover its moderate cost of equity of 9.86% or WACC of 9.29%. In FY2025, Commercial Airplanes generated an operating deficit of -$7,079M on $41,494M revenue, and consolidated free cash flow was negative -$1,886M. The company's moat is effectively held captive by operational bottlenecks and factory pause days, preventing structural scale advantages from converting into cash returns.
The most resilient pillar of Boeing's moat resides in Global Services, which generated $13,474M of operating income on $20,923M of revenue in FY2025 (a 64.4% operating margin). Airline fleet reliance on proprietary Boeing parts, flight operations software, and maintenance support produces immense switching friction that cannot be easily displaced by third-party maintenance providers. Until Commercial Airplanes production ramps to target rates (rate 52 on 737 and rate 10 on 787) and defense fixed-price reach-forward write-downs cease, the moat's economic expression remains narrow and heavily reliant on services profit ballast.
Boeing generated FY2025 consolidated operating income of $4,281M and net income of $2,235M on revenue of $89,463M. However, return on invested capital remains negative at -8.44%, falling severely short of its moderate cost of equity of 9.86% and computed WACC of 9.29%. Free cash flow was negative at -$1,886M in FY2025 due to peak tooling capex of $2,942M and Commercial Airplanes operating losses of -$7,079M. Boeing is currently destroying economic value; sustainable economic profits depend entirely on operational leverage from ramping 737 production to rate 52 and normalizing capital expenditures.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($134.94). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
The modal expected path reflects steady operational stabilization. The 737 manufacturing cadence expands toward rate 52 per month without internal factory roadblocks, lifting consolidated revenue to consensus FY2027 projections of $112,819.8M and diluted EPS to consensus $4.19. Operating leverage across BCA transforms consolidated operating margins from 1.5% in FY2026 to a normalized 8.5% by FY2030, anchored by dependable Global Services aftermarket profits ($13,474M operating profit). At a 17.0x terminal multiple and 9.86% discount rate, this operational recovery supports the composite fair value midpoint of $134.94.12
A material beat driven by accelerating BCA deliveries and positive fixed-cost absorption validates operational momentum, confirming that assembly line pause days have ended and fixed-overhead leverage is taking hold, justifying an upgrade to a neutral stance.
In-line financial performance confirms the slow, friction-laden pace of manufacturing stabilization and ongoing pause days, leaving current market trading levels substantially ahead of intrinsic fundamental value.
An operational miss driven by intensified propulsion shortages or defense contract charges confirms kill scenario triggers, breaking turnaround support and accelerating multiple de-rating toward distressed valuation bounds.
Boeing's earnings quality in FY2025 exhibits a pronounced divergence between reported GAAP accruals and underlying cash flow. Consolidated operating income of $4,281M and net income of $2,235M were heavily masked by segment distortions: Global Services generated an extraordinary $13,474M of operating income, which masked a severe -$7,079M operating deficit in Commercial Airplanes and -$128M loss in Defense, Space & Security. Furthermore, cash conversion was poor: operating cash flow reached only $1,065M, which after deducting $2,942M in capex resulted in negative free cash flow of -$1,886M. The presence of ongoing reach-forward contract adjustments in BDS (such as the $280M VC-25B loss in 2026Q2) and inventory build from factory pause days indicate that earnings quality remains depressed until positive cash conversion is demonstrated.
Boeing's cash flow dynamics reflect acute turnaround strain characterized by heavy working capital absorption and elevated capital expenditures. In FY2025, operating cash flow was positive at $1,065M, but capital expenditures of $2,942M resulted in negative free cash flow of -$1,886M. The deficit was driven by severe inventory holding costs in Commercial Airplanes (-$7,079M operating deficit) and pause days, cushioned only by Global Services ($13,474M operating income). While management guided working capital to become a net source of cash in H2 2026 supported by customer advances, sustained positive free cash flow requires 737 assembly to ramp toward rate 52 and capex to normalize toward historical 2.0% levels.56
Boeing's ROIC trajectory reflects a classic turnaround profile recovering from a deep cyclical and operational trough. In FY2025, consolidated return on invested capital was negative at -8.44%, severely depressed by BCA manufacturing deficits (-$7,079M) and peak capex investments ($2,942M). As 737 assembly line pauses cease and deliveries scale toward rate 52, fixed-overhead absorption is projected to expand consolidated operating margin from 1.5% in FY2026 to 8.5% by FY2030. This expansion, combined with capex normalization and steady Global Services returns ($13,474M operating profit), drives a steady improvement in ROIC toward positive territory by FY2028.
Current ROIC of -8.44% falls well short of Boeing's computed WACC of 9.29% and moderate cost of equity of 9.86%, generating an economic value spread of -17.73%. Return on capital will only cross WACC when BCA operating margins turn sustainably positive and consolidated operating margins exceed 6.5%.
| 売上高 | $24,560,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $22,146,000,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $2,414,000,000 |
| 営業費用 | $2,336,000,000 |
| 営業利益 | $78,000,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$522,000,000 |
| 純利益 | -$444,000,000 |
| 総資産 | $168,235,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $10,921,000,000 |
| 流動資産 | $128,459,000,000 |
| 負債合計 | $162,778,000,000 |
| 流動負債 | $108,115,000,000 |
| 株主資本 | $5,457,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $2,235,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $4,614,000,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $1,953,000,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $426,000,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $1,065,000,000 |
| 営業キャッシュ流出 | $3,549,000,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $15,426,000,000 |
| 期首現金 | $13,822,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流入 | $499,000,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $40,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流出 | $3,763,000,000 |
| 支払配当金 | $331,000,000 |
| 純有利子負債返済 | $3,456,000,000 |
| 期末現金 | $11,663,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | $499,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | -$3,763,000,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-01-30 · SEC EDGAR
| 事業セグメント別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commercial Airplanes | $414.9億 | 46.4% | 81.5% |
| Defense Space And Security | $272.3億 | 30.4% | 13.9% |
| Global Services | $209.2億 | 23.4% | 4.9% |
2026-10-03の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $935億 | $79.8億 | $50.3億 | $105億 | $78.8億 | $26.1億 | $18.9億 | $1.9億 | $70億 | $27.6億 | — | -$33.8億 | -$95.9億 | — | $88.7億 | $100.3億 | $99.5億 | 7.0% | — | 6.6% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $940.1億 | $125.1億 | $84.6億 | $133.5億 | $116.1億 | $17.4億 | $20.5億 | $2億 | $92.4億 | $34.2億 | — | -$20.6億 | -$113.5億 | $88.7億 | $88.9億 | $99.9億 | $111.2億 | 11.0% | — | 7.1% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $1011.3億 | $141.9億 | $104.6億 | $153.2億 | $136億 | $17.2億 | $21.1億 | $2億 | $90億 | $39.5億 | — | -$46.2億 | -$117.2億 | $88.9億 | $78.1億 | $85.6億 | $138.5億 | 11.9% | — | 7.5% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $765.6億 | $7.3億 | -$6.4億 | -$24.5億 | -$42.8億 | $18.3億 | $22.7億 | $2.1億 | $26.5億 | $46.3億 | — | -$15.3億 | $57.4億 | $78.1億 | $95.7億 | $100.3億 | $209.6億 | -2.6% | — | 6.4% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $581.6億 | -$100.7億 | -$118.7億 | -$184.1億 | -$197.1億 | $13億 | $22.5億 | $2.5億 | — | $11.6億 | — | -$183.7億 | $349.6億 | $95.7億 | $78.4億 | $255.9億 | $633.8億 | -22.0% | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $622.9億 | -$1.8億 | -$42億 | -$34.2億 | -$44億 | $9.8億 | $21.4億 | $8.3億 | — | $2400万 | — | $93.2億 | -$56億 | $78.4億 | $81億 | $162.4億 | $579.2億 | -4.6% | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $666.1億 | -$4.8億 | -$49.4億 | $35.1億 | $22.9億 | $12.2億 | $19.8億 | $7.3億 | — | $1000万 | -$12.8億 | $43.7億 | -$12.7億 | $81億 | $146.5億 | $172.2億 | $567.9億 | -5.3% | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $777.9億 | -$7.7億 | -$22.2億 | $59.6億 | $44.3億 | $15.3億 | $18.6億 | $6.9億 | — | — | -$51.4億 | -$24.4億 | -$54.9億 | $146.5億 | $127.1億 | $159.7億 | $520.6億 | -1.0% | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $665.2億 | -$76.5億 | -$118.2億 | -$120.8億 | -$144億 | $22.3億 | $18.4億 | $4.1億 | — | — | $14.9億 | -$119.7億 | $252.1億 | $127.1億 | $138.2億 | $262.8億 | $536.3億 | -16.1% | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $894.6億 | $73.6億 | $22.4億 | $10.7億 | -$18.9億 | $29.4億 | $19.5億 | $4.3億 | — | $3.3億 | -$34.6億 | $5億 | -$37.6億 | $138.2億 | $116.6億 | $294億 | $538.5億 | 4.8% | — | 8.3% | — |
The Boeing Company (BA) trades at 49.5x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of -62.8x compares with a peer median of 13.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: General Dynamics Corporation, 3M Company, Northrop Grumman Corporation and Lockheed Martin Corporation, as of 2026-10-02.
Aerospace industry benchmark capital intensity stands at a low 0.8% capex-to-revenue ratio with a capex-to-depreciation ratio of 0.95x. In contrast, Boeing operated during FY2025 at peak turnaround investment intensity, investing $2,942M in capex against $1,953M in depreciation and amortization (a 1.51x capex/depreciation ratio) and 3.29% of revenue ($89,463M). Concurrently, sub-tier propulsion and forging suppliers face capital constraints, creating an industry-wide capacity bottleneck where end-market demand exceeds supply chain delivery capabilities.57
The commercial aerospace industry is experiencing a multi-year secular upcycle characterized by robust global passenger traffic expansion and urgent airline fleet modernization. Global airline demand is reflected in Boeing's commercial order backlog of more than 6,200 airplanes and an industry market outlook of nearly 44,000 aircraft over the next two decades. Demand is strongly diversified, with Non-US customers accounting for $41,380M or 46.3% of FY2025 revenue, driven by rapid fleet growth across Asia ($16,466M), steady European carrier replacement ($11,419M), and twin-aisle widebody absorption in the Middle East ($7,023M). In this phase, airframers operate with extraordinary multi-year backlog visibility, where every incremental delivered unit provides high operational leverage.
In a severe aerospace downcycle, persistent supply chain chokepoints and quality audits force prolonged assembly caps below 38 aircraft per month, stranding unfinished inventory and extending negative free cash flow beyond FY2025's -$1,886M. If airline customer profitability degrades from macroeconomic shocks or fuel price spikes, international carriers could defer deliveries from the 6,200+ aircraft backlog. Compounded by defense procurement delays and further reach-forward losses in BDS, unabsorbed fixed overhead would prevent operating margin recovery and trigger multiple compression down to distressed peer valuation levels.
Boeing occupies a complex position as an operational turnaround OEM operating inside an expansionary global aerospace cycle. It commands immense pricing power and backlog visibility (>6,200 commercial aircraft), backed by $13,474M of operating income in Global Services. However, manufacturing pause days, Commercial Airplanes operating deficits (-$7,079M in FY2025), and heavy balance-sheet debt ($48,362M) position Boeing as an operationally impaired producer trailing peer execution. While peers like General Dynamics generate a 10.38% operating margin and Lockheed Martin generates 11.96%, Boeing is burdened by fixed-overhead drag, leaving its equity vulnerable to valuation compression.2458
Under the committee Sell rating, zero equity capital allocation (0.0%) is warranted. Boeing trades at $193.56, representing a 43.4% premium over the intrinsic fair value midpoint of $134.94 and an implied return of -30.3%. The presence of $48,362M in total debt, negative trailing free cash flow (-$1,886M), persistent Tier 2/3 propulsion bottlenecks, and recent consensus EPS cuts (-212.86% for FY2026) command high analytical conviction in an underweight or zero-allocation stance.12356
Risk management for Boeing centers on capital preservation amidst severe balance-sheet leverage and manufacturing operational risk. Total debt of $48,362M in an elevated rate environment (pre-tax cost of debt 8.81%) against $10,921M in cash leaves minimal buffer for execution errors. High debt burdens and constrained cash conversion reflect persistent balance-sheet stress. New long exposure should be strictly avoided until factory pause days end, Tier 2/3 supplier casting bottlenecks resolve, and Commercial Airplanes demonstrates positive operating margins.
At $193.56, Boeing trades at a 43.4% premium to composite fair value of $134.94 and 49.51x forward earnings. Total return expectations are heavily negative (-30.3% implied return) as market pricing reflects an aggressive ramp to rate 52, leaving zero margin of safety for supply chain disruptions or debt servicing on $48,362M of obligations.235
Turnaround investors should avoid entering until Commercial Airplanes demonstrates sustained quarterly operating profitability from its FY2025 -$7,079M deficit and free cash flow inflects reliably positive from -$1,886M. Entering at current trading levels prematurely absorbs multi-year operational execution risk without adequate valuation discount.68
Defensive investors face elevated balance sheet leverage with $48,362M in total debt, pre-tax debt costs of 8.81%, and recurring fixed-price defense reach-forward losses such as the $280M charge on VC-25B. Better risk-adjusted aerospace and defense exposure is available through established prime peers like General Dynamics.245
We recommend a Sell rating on The Boeing Company at the October 2, 2026 price of $193.56, against a composite fair value of $134.94 per share. This fair value implies a -30.3% return and highlights that prevailing trading levels represent a 43.4% premium over intrinsic value. Market optimism aggressively prices in an uninterrupted manufacturing ramp to rate 52, overlooking persistent Tier 2/3 propulsion bottlenecks, deep FY2025 Commercial Airplanes operating losses (-$7,079M), negative consolidated free cash flow (-$1,886M), and an onerous debt burden of $48,362M.23568
While long-term commercial aircraft demand is robust with a backlog exceeding 6,200 airplanes and Global Services contributes $13,474M in operating income, the near-term operational path is constrained. Consensus FY2026 EPS was revised sharply downward post-2026Q2 by -212.9% to -1.08, while ongoing defense contract reach-forward losses ($280M on VC-25B) depress Defense margins to ~2.5%. Investors should liquidate or avoid positions, as current multiples (49.51x forward P/E) leave substantial downside exposure.
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The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Factory pause days to allow supply chain catch-up, recurring BDS development contract charges like the $280M loss on VC-25B in 2026Q2, and unabsorbed overhead prevent consolidated operating margin from reaching the projected 8.5% normalized level, holding it below 4.0% against FY2025 reported operating margin of 4.79% ($4,281M operating income on $89,463M revenue).57
Turnaround execution stagnation and persistent financial leverage cause market multiples to de-rate by 20% from the 17.0x terminal multiple down to 13.6x, dropping below pure-play defense contractor multiples (Lockheed Martin at 15.43x and Northrop Grumman at 15.70x).4
Consensus analyst estimates project FY2027 diluted EPS of $4.19, but carry a low-end estimate of $2.47. If propulsion shortages and defense EAC charges cause FY2027 EPS to fall below $2.47, the operational turnaround thesis is invalidated, triggering the full bear case valuation collapse against the October 2, 2026 price of $193.56.13
Inability of BCA to eliminate operating deficits by FY2027 invalidates the operational turnaround thesis, demonstrating that fixed overhead absorption has failed and capping consolidated operating margins below normalized levels.
現在:-17.06% in FY2025 (-$7,079M operating deficit on $41,494M revenue)
警戒条件<=0.0% through FY2027
Continued cash burn drains liquidity reserves ($10,921M cash) against $48,362M in total debt, elevating financial distress and increasing the risk of dilutive equity issuance beyond current shares outstanding of 789.79M.
現在:-$1,886M in FY2025 under $2,942M capex
警戒条件<$0 for FY2026 or negative free cash flow across consecutive quarters
Recurring engineering reach-forward contract losses and write-downs (such as the $280M VC-25B loss in 2026Q2) lock BDS into severe margin lag against peers General Dynamics (10.38%), Northrop Grumman (11.60%), and Lockheed Martin (11.96%).
現在:-0.47% in FY2025 (-$128M loss on $27,234M revenue); 2.5% FY2026 expected
警戒条件<0.0% or quarterly operating loss exceeding $500M
Erosion of Global Services aftermarket profitability below 30.0% removes the primary internal profit ballast insulating the balance sheet during the commercial manufacturing ramp.
現在:64.40% in FY2025 ($13,474M operating income on $20,923M revenue)
警戒条件<30.0% in FY2026
| medium |
| 12 to 36 months |
| Completing flight test certification milestones on developmental programs (MQ-25 and T-7A), burning through fixed-price backlog, and enforcing disciplined bid underwriting on repriced lots to bridge the operating margin gap toward peer benchmarks (GD at 10.38%).45 |
| Geopolitical Friction and International Regulatory Certification Asymmetry | medium | 24 to 48 months | Maintaining geographic revenue diversification across Europe ($11,419M), Middle East ($7,023M), and Asia ($16,466M) while nurturing multi-decade airline fleet customer alignments.8 |
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Under the accelerated recovery scenario, commercial aircraft assembly achieves rate 52 on the 737 MAX ahead of schedule and widebody 787 production recovers to rate 10. This converts Boeing's commercial backlog of over 6,200 airplanes into upper-tier consensus FY2027 diluted EPS of $6.80. Fixed overhead absorption eliminates Commercial Airplanes operating deficits (-$7,079M in FY2025), Global Services maintains 64.4% operating margins ($13,474M operating income), and working capital converts into strong positive free cash flow. This execution drives intrinsic value toward the upper distribution bound of $183.81.158
Engine delivery pacing from GE/CFM directly governs the timing of the 787 widebody ramp to rate 10 and prevents narrowbody assembly line stoppages.5
| $124.10B |
| $132.17B |
| $138.12B |
| Operating income | $8.33B | $9.59B | $10.55B | $11.23B | $11.74B |
| NOPAT | $7.08B | $8.14B | $8.96B | $9.54B | $9.97B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $5.15B | $5.93B | $6.52B | $6.95B | $7.26B |
| Revenue growth | 9.6% | 15.1% | 10.0% | 6.5% | 4.5% |
| Operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Tax rate | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% | 15.1% |
| Reinvestment rate | 27.2% | 27.2% | 27.2% | 27.2% | 27.2% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Boeing's capital allocation strategy is completely constrained by its turnaround imperatives: prioritizing manufacturing recovery, debt service, and liquidity preservation over shareholder distributions. Common dividends remain suspended, and share repurchases are dormant following severe balance-sheet leverage. Diluted shares outstanding expanded to 789.79M as of October 2026 from 762.30M in FY2025 due to equity financing requirements. Capital expenditures consumed $2,942M in FY2025 (3.29% of revenue), well above the aerospace industry benchmark of 0.8% of revenue. With total debt standing at $48,362M against $10,921M in cash, all available operating cash flow ($1,065M in FY2025) must be directed toward funding tooling completion and retiring maturing obligations before any capital return can be contemplated.
Commercial Airplanes incurred an operating loss of -$7,079M on $41,494M of revenue in FY2025, pulling consolidated operating margins down to 4.79% ($4,281M operating profit on $89,463M revenue).
Ramping 737 assembly toward rate 52 and 787 toward rate 10 provides the necessary fixed-overhead absorption to eliminate segment losses and expand consolidated operating margins from 1.5% in FY2026 to 8.5% by FY2030.
Global Services delivered $13,474M of operating income on $20,923M of revenue in FY2025 (a 64.4% operating margin).
BGS operating cash generation serves as the primary balance-sheet life-support system, fully absorbing the manufacturing cash bleed in BCA and development write-downs in BDS (-$128M loss).
Following the 2026Q2 earnings release, consensus FY2026 diluted EPS was cut by -212.86% to -1.08, while FY2027 diluted EPS was raised +2.32% to $4.19 with revenue reaching $112,819.8M.
Market expectations have conceded near-term pause penalties but heavily price in an unhindered operational surge in FY2027, creating severe downside risk if Tier 2/3 bottlenecks persist.
FY2025 capital expenditures reached $2,942M (1.51x D&A of $1,953M and 3.29% of revenue), well above the aerospace industry benchmark of 0.8% of revenue, keeping free cash flow negative at -$1,886M.
As tooling and facility modifications subside, capex normalizing toward ~2.0% of revenue will enable operating cash flows ($1,065M in FY2025) to translate into substantial positive free cash flow.
| マージン |
|---|
| BA | The Boeing Company | $152.9B | 49.5x | 1.6x | -62.8x | 173.5% | — |
| GD | General Dynamics Corporation | $89.3B | 17.8x | 1.6x | 14.2x | 17.8% | 10.4% |
| MMM | 3M Company | $83.5B | 16.5x | 3.3x | 14.1x | 81.9% | 20.4% |
| NOC | Northrop Grumman Corporation | $67.9B | 15.7x | 1.6x | 11.4x | 27.0% | 11.6% |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin Corporation | $116.7B | 15.4x | 1.5x | 13.8x | 89.2% | 12.0% |
| Secular Expansion in Allied Defense and Security Spending | positive | Heightened geopolitical instability drives elevated defense and security procurement among US and allied nations, sustaining an $85B backlog in BDS despite fixed-price execution headwinds. |
| Review rating for potential upgrade from Sell to Hold |
| Price convergence to intrinsic fair value eliminates market overvaluation premium, allowing re-evaluation of delivery run-rates and free cash flow recovery. |
| Evaluate turnaround long re-entry checkpoint | At this lower valuation bound, pricing discounts full downside stress from capped narrowbody output and low-end consensus EPS, establishing an attractive margin of safety if delivery rhythm stabilizes. |
| Consolidated Free Cash Flow | Consolidated free cash flow remains negative for full-year FY2026 | Increase balance-sheet distress penalty; model further equity dilution expanding share count beyond 789.79M.3 |
| Defense, Space & Security Quarterly Operating Losses | BDS quarterly operating loss exceeding $500M or reach-forward EAC write-down exceeding $250M | Downgrade BDS division fair value contribution; bound BDS normalized operating margin below 3.0%. |
