Skip to content
StockMarketAgent
Direct answer
BIDU trades against a final fair-value range of $83.51-$235.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $83.5, high $236, with mid-point at $159.
Stock analysis

BIDU fair value $84–$236

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-20次回更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
View archive
株価
$137.68
▲ +21.79 (+15.83%)
公正価値
$159
$84–$236
評価
買い
confidence 82/100
上昇余地
+15.8%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$135.55
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$46.8B
P/E fwd 15.0
英語版にフォールバックJA
翻訳中のため英語版を表示しています
このレポートはまだ翻訳されていません。翻訳キューが追いついたら数分後に更新してください。

§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $159 with high case $236.
  • Implied upside of 15.8% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$159
Margin of safety
+13.7%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$137.68Price
Low $83.51
Mid $159.47
High $235.67

BIDU trades against a final fair-value range of $83.51-$235.67, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Search-dominance data flywheel in the
    Search-dominance data flywheel in the Chinese market with 600M+ DAU.
  • Proprietary AI infrastructure including ERNIE
    Proprietary AI infrastructure including ERNIE Bot and integrated cloud services.
  • Bull thesis
    Bull: Compelling value play on the dominant player in China's AI infrastructure evolution.

§2 ベアケース

A stress-case assuming 0% growth in the search core and permanent failure of AI monetization yields a valuation floor of $83.51. The position is protected by a $3.34B net cash bridge shown in the deterministic FCFFFree cash flow to firmCash flow available to all capital providers (debt and equity) before financing costs. Discounted at WACC to derive enterprise value. model, though negative OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. conversion (-0.539) requires careful monitoring of reinvestment efficiency.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Structural Search Erosion

25%· Medium

Short-video and social commerce platforms accelerate traffic diversion, causing permanent advertising revenue decline and margin compression.

FV impact
High (Targeting $83 floor)
Trigger
12-24 months

Regulatory Utility Caps

15%· Low

Chinese regulators designate AI and cloud services as public infrastructure, imposing profit margin caps and restricting commercial monetization.

FV impact
Moderate (Multiple contraction)
Trigger
Ongoing

Autonomous Driving Stall

20%· Medium

Technical hurdles or safety-driven regulatory halts prevent the nationwide rollout and monetization of the Apollo Go robotaxi fleet.

FV impact
Moderate (Growth premium loss)
Trigger
24-36 months
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Sustained quarterly decline in Baidu App Daily Active Users (DAU).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Non-advertising revenue contribution failing to reach 30% threshold by 2027.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory suspension of Apollo Go licenses in primary Tier-1 cities.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Continued negative Operating Cash Flow to Net Income conversion beyond FY2026.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Stock-based compensation exceeding 15% of revenue as a retention necessity.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期間2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$123.68B$134.60B$133.13B$129.08B+1.4%
売上総利益$59.74B$69.57B$67.02B$56.64B-1.8%
営業利益$15.91B$21.86B$21.27B$10.37B-13.3%
純利益$7.56B$20.32B$23.76B$5.59B-9.6%
EPS (希薄化後)$19.84$55.12$65.92$11.76-16.0%
EBITDA$33.11B$49.90B$51.97B$30.85B-2.3%
研究開発$23.32B$24.19B$22.13B$20.43B-4.3%
販管費$20.51B$23.52B$23.62B$25.84B+8.0%

品質スコア

OCF / 純利益
-0.54
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
2.1%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

カバー対象の全ティッカーの完全なレポート
24か月分の評価アーカイブ
ウォッチリストブリーフィング + 評価変更アラート
任意の言語でのPDF + DOCXエクスポート
無料トライアルを開始
いつでもキャンセル可能。
FAQ

BIDU — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BIDU looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $138 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $159 (range $83.5–$236), which implies roughly 15.8% upside to the midpoint.

Related coverage

Names readers of BIDU also follow

Same archetype: mature-compounder