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BLK trades against a final fair-value range of $458.59-$888.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $459, high $889, with mid-point at $670.
Stock analysis

BLK fair value $459–$889

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-09次回更新: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Financial
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株価
$1084.83
▼ -414.40 (-38.20%)
公正価値
$670
$459–$889
評価
売り
confidence 77/100
上昇余地
-38.2%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$569.87
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$168.4B
P/E fwd 17.9
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $670 with high case $889.
  • Implied downside of 38.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 77/100 · Financial.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$670
Margin of safety
-61.8%
Confidence
77/100
Moat
9/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$1,084.83Price
Low $458.59
Mid $670.43
High $888.83

BLK trades against a final fair-value range of $458.59-$888.83, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Industry-leading AUM scale through iShares
    Industry-leading AUM scale through iShares
  • High switching costs via Aladdin
    High switching costs via Aladdin enterprise platform
  • Cycle upside
    Structural shift toward passive ETFs and scaling of private market alternatives.

§2 ベアケース

A protracted global equity bear market reduces AUM-based fee revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., colliding with accelerated zero-fee competitor product launches and stalling Aladdin's annual recurring revenue growthRevenue growthYear-over-year change in revenue, expressed as a percentage. The starting point for any forward-earnings model and the lens through which scale, mix, and pricing power become visible..

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Sustained Market Stagnation

· Medium

Extended equity and fixed-income market drawdowns mechanically shrink AUM, severely degrading base management fees and operating leverage.

FV impact
Drives valuation toward the $458.59 low-end floor.
Trigger
12-24 months

Severe Fee War Acceleration

· Low

Competitors slash expense ratios to zero across core index products, forcing BlackRock to cut fees to defend market share.

FV impact
Compresses margins, impairing EPS growth and forward multiple.
Trigger
24-36 months

Political Divestment Mandates

· Low

Legislative backlash forces major state pension funds and institutional clients to withdraw capital over ESG or proxy voting policies.

FV impact
Reduces terminal growth rate and terminal PE multiple.
Trigger
12-18 months
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Consecutive quarters of net outflows in core iSharesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Aladdin revenue growth decelerating below 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margin compressing below 30%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant institutional mandate lossesMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Rising base fee realization rate discountsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期間2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$19.37B$17.87B$17.86B$20.41B$24.22B+5.7%
売上総利益$9.82B$8.68B$8.58B$10.09B$11.31B+3.6%
営業利益$7.45B$6.48B$6.34B$7.54B$7.91B+1.5%
純利益$5.90B$5.18B$5.50B$6.37B$5.55B-1.5%
EPS (希薄化後)$38.07$33.97$36.51$42.01$35.31-1.9%
EBITDA$8.79B$6.92B$7.87B$9.36B$9.36B+1.6%
研究開発——————
販管費$2.22B$2.06B$2.09B$2.26B$2.63B+4.3%

品質スコア

OCF / 純利益
0.71×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
9.2%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

BLK intrinsic value questions

  1. BLK (BLK)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

BLK — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, BLK looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1085 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $670 (range $459–$889), which implies roughly 38.2% downside to the midpoint.

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