任意の製品分析
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Bull: The enterprise effectively transforms into a tech-infrastructure asset, securing decades of premium baseload pricing that completely bypasses the wholesale merchant grid constraints.
PPA Execution Failure: Hyperscalers balk at premium nuclear capacity pricing, forcing the company to sell uncontracted power into oversupplied wholesale merchant markets.
Constellation Energy operates the premier carbon-free nuclear fleet, positioning it for data center demand. However, current market pricing aggressively discounts an AI infrastructure premium that outpaces our disciplined utility reversion models.
Constellation Energy operates the premier carbon-free nuclear fleet, positioning it for data center demand. However, current market pricing aggressively discounts an AI infrastructure premium that outpaces our disciplined utility reversion models.
Generative AI and widespread electrification are driving unprecedented baseload capacity demand, fundamentally re-rating nuclear assets.
Sell. Shares price in speculative tech-infrastructure contracts ahead of execution, exposing investors to severe multiple contraction risk.
A failure to announce high-margin multi-year data center contracts breaks the structural growth narrative. Applying historical IPP median operating margins (21.3%) and a standard utility 15x multiple craters shares toward the $151.30 low bound.
Hyperscalers abandon nuclear for cheaper alternatives. High capex requirements and a return to standard independent power producer multiples severely punish the current premium valuation.
Hyperscalers balk at premium nuclear capacity pricing, forcing the company to sell uncontracted power into oversupplied wholesale merchant markets.
Changes to IRA Production Tax Credits remove the structural price floor for nuclear generation, compounding margin compression during low-demand cycles.
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Declining operating margins indicate that uncontracted wholesale power pricing is weakening or nuclear generation operating costs are escalating, reducing cash available for fleet upgrades.
現在:Operating margin was 16.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31.
警戒条件Falls below 12.0% over two consecutive quarters
A 15-year moat duration is supported by nuclear asset scarcity, extreme regulatory barriers to new entrants, and Inflation Reduction Act Production Tax Credits acting as a robust wholesale price floor.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted , discount each year's earnings at , then add a Gordon-growth .
Unavailable
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($197.53). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $1.7B after capex $2.9B, with terminal value at 61.2% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.
The enterprise effectively transforms into a tech-infrastructure asset, securing decades of premium baseload pricing that completely bypasses the wholesale merchant grid constraints.
If management formalizes hyperscaler PPAs above standard grid pricing, the stock validates its tech-infrastructure premium. If earnings rely solely on standard wholesale capacity markets, expect immediate multiple contraction.
If management formalizes hyperscaler PPAs above standard grid pricing, the stock validates its tech-infrastructure premium. If earnings rely solely on standard wholesale capacity markets, expect immediate multiple contraction.
If management formalizes hyperscaler PPAs above standard grid pricing, the stock validates its tech-infrastructure premium. If earnings rely solely on standard wholesale capacity markets, expect immediate multiple contraction.
If management formalizes hyperscaler PPAs above standard grid pricing, the stock validates its tech-infrastructure premium. If earnings rely solely on standard wholesale capacity markets, expect immediate multiple contraction.
Warning level: Falls below 12.0% over two consecutive quarters. Declining operating margins indicate that uncontracted wholesale power pricing is weakening or nuclear generation operating costs are escalating, reducing cash available for fleet upgrades.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| 売上高 | 25,533,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | 20,840,000,000 |
| 売上総利益 | 4,693,000,000 |
| 営業費用 | 495,000,000 |
| 営業利益 | 4,198,000,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -1,879,000,000 |
| 純利益 | 2,319,000,000 |
| 総資産 | 57,249,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | 3,641,000,000 |
| 流動資産 | 12,119,000,000 |
| 負債合計 | 42,396,000,000 |
| 流動負債 | 7,944,000,000 |
| 株主資本 | 14,517,000,000 |
2026-05-20の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-31 | 196.5億 | 44.4億 | -2.1億 | -13.4億 | -26.7億 | 13.3億 | 40億 | — | 0 | 18.3億 | 12.9億 | — | — | — | — | 5億 | 82億 | 1.8% | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 244.4億 | 15.6億 | -1.6億 | -23.5億 | -40.4億 | 16.9億 | 18.5億 | — | 0 | 1.9億 | -23.3億 | — | — | — | — | 4.2億 | 57.7億 | -1.7% | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 249.2億 | 47.6億 | 16.2億 | -53億 | -77.2億 | 24.2億 | 18.8億 | — | 9.9億 | 3.7億 | 35.1億 | — | — | — | — | 3.7億 | 92.6億 | 9.6% | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 235.7億 | 70.3億 | 37.5億 | -24.6億 | -50.3億 | 25.7億 | 20.1億 | — | 10億 | 4.4億 | -8.5億 | — | — | — | — | 30.2億 | 84.1億 | 20.6% | — | 7.4% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 255.3億 | 59.6億 | 23.2億 | 42.4億 | 12.9億 | 29.5億 | 19.4億 | — | 4億 | 4.9億 | 5.7億 | — | — | — | — | 36.4億 | 89.9億 | 16.4% | — | 9.2% | — |
CEG trades at 19.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 17.4x; EV/EBITDA of 14.6x against a peer median of 13.2x; 6 peers.
The company is in an aggressive investment phase (Capex/Revenue 11.5%, Capex/DA 1.52x), severely dragging trailing FCFF but setting up multi-decade asset durability.
Generative AI and widespread electrification are driving unprecedented baseload capacity demand, fundamentally re-rating nuclear assets.
Oversupply of subsidized intermittent renewables periodically drives daytime wholesale power prices negative, pressuring merchant fleet economics.
The company is in an aggressive investment phase (Capex/Revenue 11.5%, Capex/DA 1.52x), severely dragging trailing FCFF but setting up multi-decade asset durability.
Avoid core allocations. The 24.2% downside gap to our fair value suggests the market has fully front-run all fundamental execution upside.
Trim exposure aggressively above $260. The extreme spread against private calibration targets indicates the AI data center narrative is fully priced.
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
The market is valuing the asset based on an unverified transition to tech-infrastructure pricing. Our internal discipline forces a reversion to standard power provider baselines, underscoring severe multiple contraction risk if the narrative falters.
Sell. While the business holds a structurally privileged asset base in a capacity-constrained grid, the $260 market price demands flawless execution of an AI premium narrative that our stringent models refuse to capitalize prematurely.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Uprate and maintenance capital expenditures spiral beyond the current 1.52x Capex/DA run rate, further dragging free cash flow profiles and delaying owner earnings realization.
Inability to contract co-located compute capacity at premium fixed tariffs leaves nuclear output exposed to volatile merchant power pricing, removing the anticipated structural premium from commercial energy contracts.
現在:Revenue growth was 8.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31.
警戒条件Decelerates below 3.0% over two consecutive quarters
Elevated reactor relicensing and plant uprate capital expenditures without immediate commercial power contract monetization dilute asset turnover and diminish returns on invested capital across power generation facilities.
現在:ROIC was 13.5% as of the report's 2026-05-20 analysis date.
警戒条件Falls below 10.0% over a trailing twelve-month period
Hyperscalers adopting alternative on-site base load power solutions directly undercuts long-term demand for dedicated nuclear power purchase agreements, forcing generation volume into lower-margin regional grid auctions.
現在:Gross margin was 18.4% for the period ended 2025-12-31.
警戒条件Compresses below 15.0% over two consecutive quarters
Legislative modification or repeal of clean energy production tax credits eliminates the regulatory revenue floor for nuclear generation, increasing earnings volatility and compressing operating cash flow generation during low power demand cycles.
現在:Operating cash flow to net income was 1.827 as of the report's 2026-05-20 analysis date.
警戒条件Falls below 1.20x over a trailing four-quarter period
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Strict adherence to utility mean-reversion rules applies a heavy gravitational pull, forcing the valuation to ignore unverified structural AI upside and penalize the ongoing FCFF drag.
Warning level: Decelerates below 3.0% over two consecutive quarters. Inability to contract co-located compute capacity at premium fixed tariffs leaves nuclear output exposed to volatile merchant power pricing, removing the anticipated structural premium from commercial energy contracts.
Warning level: Falls below 10.0% over a trailing twelve-month period. Elevated reactor relicensing and plant uprate capital expenditures without immediate commercial power contract monetization dilute asset turnover and diminish returns on invested capital across power generation facilities.
Warning level: Compresses below 15.0% over two consecutive quarters. Hyperscalers adopting alternative on-site base load power solutions directly undercuts long-term demand for dedicated nuclear power purchase agreements, forcing generation volume into lower-margin regional grid auctions.
Warning level: Falls below 1.20x over a trailing four-quarter period. Legislative modification or repeal of clean energy production tax credits eliminates the regulatory revenue floor for nuclear generation, increasing earnings volatility and compressing operating cash flow generation during low power demand cycles.
| マージン |
|---|
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | $94.2B | 19.2x | 3.2x | 14.6x | — | — |
| VST | Vistra Corp. | 12.3x | 2.4x | 10.0x | 42.9% | 26.6% | |
| NRG | NRG Energy Inc. | 10.8x | 0.8x | 22.1x | 6.2% | 3.6% | |
| NEE | NextEra Energy Inc. | 20.5x | 6.7x | 21.3x | 10.3% | 30.2% | |
| SO | The Southern Company | 19.1x | 3.5x | 13.2x | 11.0% | 25.8% | |
| DUK | Duke Energy Corporation | 17.4x | 3.0x | 11.5x | 9.7% | 25.5% |
