CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

NYSE: CF · USD

$120

-0.58 (-0.5%)· Recorded snapshot

英語版にフォールバックJA

翻訳中のため英語版を表示しています

このレポートはまだ翻訳されていません。翻訳キューが追いついたら数分後に更新してください。

StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-11

Our latest published analysis: CF rated Hold

CF Industries Holdings, Inc.'s published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$119 / share

Potential value

$190 / share

Upside to FV

+6.6%

from $120

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$16.9B
Revenue (ttm)	7.7B
Net income (ttm)	2.1B
EPS (ttm)	$13.4
Shares out	151.3M
P/E (trailing)	8.9x
P/E (forward)	12.2x
Dividend	$2.40 (2.01%)
Volume	1,016,704
Beta	0.53

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 7.7B
Net income (ttm): 2.1B
EPS (ttm): $13.4
P/E (trailing): 8.9x
P/E (forward): 12.2x
Market cap: $16.9B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$6.54B	$11.19B	$6.63B	$5.94B	$7.08B	+2.0%
Gross profit	$2.39B	$5.86B	$2.55B	$2.06B	$2.72B	+3.4%
Operating income	$1.73B	$5.40B	$2.23B	$1.75B	$2.30B	+7.4%
Net income	$917.0M	$3.35B	$1.53B	$1.22B	$1.46B	+12.2%
EPS (diluted)	$4.24	$16.38	$7.87	$6.74	$8.97	+20.6%
EBITDA	$2.61B	$6.29B	$3.27B	$2.83B	$3.29B	+6.0%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$223.0M	$290.0M	$289.0M	$320.0M	$364.0M	+13.0%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	ホールド
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	ホールド
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	売り
APD	Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.	68.3B	—	5.4x	8.9%	+5.2%	+23.1%	ホールド
AVY	Avery Dennison Corporation	13.7B	19.8x	1.5x	15.1%	+3.3%	+1.6%	ホールド
BALL	Ball Corporation	16.7B	18.0x	1.2x	8.7%	+2.3%	+28.3%	買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$118.88

+6.6% from spot

The base scenario projects an intrinsic target of $118.88, representing an implied return of 6.6% with an assessed probability of 55.0%. This modal path assumes CF maintains full utilization across its low-cost North American manufacturing footprint while realized nitrogen selling prices moderate from peak levels toward sustainable mid-cycle economics. Ongoing capital discipline channels operating cash flow into planned maintenance and steady share buybacks, driving steady through-cycle per-share value compounding.

North American natural gas feedstock costs maintain a durable advantage over European and Asian marginal producers.
Mid-cycle operating margins normalize toward sustainable baseline levels following recent cyclical peaks.
Ongoing common share repurchases reduce diluted share count annually, compounding per-share results.
Domestic agricultural demand absorbs core production volumes across the Midwest distribution network.

Bull20%

Price target

$189.69

+70.1% from spot

The bull scenario yields a target of $189.69, reflecting an implied return of 70.1% with an assessed probability of 20.0%. Under this outcome, persistent global energy constraints and elevated capital replacement costs restrict competing greenfield additions, keeping global nitrogen supply tight. CF maximizes production across its inland network, realizes premium pricing on low-carbon ammonia export agreements, and redeploys elevated free cash flows into accelerated share repurchases, lifting equity value toward Potential value $189.69.

Sustained high European and Asian energy costs keep marginal global nitrogen production curtailed.
Tight global supply-demand balance extends through the end of the decade, supporting premium realized prices.
High-margin commercialization of low-carbon ammonia contracts and industrial DEF initiatives expand earnings power.
Aggressive share repurchase execution accelerates annual share count contraction.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($118.88). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.8%	$122	$125	$129	$134	$140
7.3%	$118	$120	$124	$127	$132
7.8%	$114	$116	$119	$122	$126
8.3%	$111	$113	$115	$117	$120
8.8%	$108	$109	$111	$113	$116

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E12.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E8.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE29.9

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC24.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All CF indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

292

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 292 of 292 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001324404
Company name	CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	125269100
Earnings date	2026-11-04
Earnings time	amc
Employees	2,900
Employees change	100
Employees growth	3.57%
Enterprise value	$19.3B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1946
In index	SP500
Industry	Agricultural Inputs
IPO date	2005-08-11
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US1252691001
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-25
Last earnings date	2026-08-05
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2015-06-18
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$18.2B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-04
Options	Yes
Price	$119.96
Price currency	USD
Sector	Materials
SIC code	2870
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	CF
U.S. state	Illinois
Website	https://www.cfindustries.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	9.5x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	17.96x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	10.74x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	11.35x
Earnings yield	11.2%
EV/Earnings	9.17x
EV/EBIT	6.45x
EV/EBITDA	4.97x
EV/FCF	10.07x
EV/Sales	2.49x
FCF / EV yield	9.93%
FCF yield	10.55%
Forward EV/Sales	2.54x
Forward P/E	9.44x
Forward P/S	2.39x
Graham number	107.07663
Graham upside	-10.51%
Industry forward P/E	12.83x
Industry P/E	45.17x
Lynch fair value	$335.98
Lynch upside	180.8%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	9.7x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	6.17x
P/B ratio	3.18x
P/E ratio	8.93x
P/FCF ratio	9.48x
P/OCF ratio	6.08x
P/S ratio	2.34x
Price / tangible book value	6.48x
Price/EBITDA ratio	4.68x
Sector forward P/E	15.04x
Sector P/E	22.59x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	38.57%
EBITDA margin	50.05%
Effective tax rate	18.35%
FCF margin	24.68%
Gross margin	42.49%
Operating margin	38.57%
Pretax margin	39.57%
Profit margin	27.12%
Profit per employee	$723,793
Profitable quarters	19
Profitable years	9
Revenue per employee	$2.7M
ROA	12.93%
ROA (5Y)	13.37%
ROCE	20.83%
ROE	29.87%
ROE (5Y)	28.58%
ROIC	24.51%
ROIC (5Y)	25.55%
SBC / revenue	0.56%
Tax / revenue	7.26%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	76.58%
EPS growth (Q)	99.62%
EPS growth (QoQ)	18.84%
EPS growth 10Y	32.4%
EPS growth 3Y	3.63%
EPS growth 5Y	44.9%
EPS growth quarters	8
EPS growth years	1
FCF growth	6.88%
FCF growth (Q)	90.88%
FCF growth (QoQ)	122.34%
FCF growth 3Y	-11.4%
FCF growth 5Y	17.63%
Gross profit growth	43.27%
Gross profit growth (Q)	51.66%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-5.03%
Gross profit growth 5Y	25.27%
Net income growth	61.21%
Net income growth (Q)	88.34%
Net income growth (QoQ)	18.21%
Net income growth 3Y	-4.17%
Net income growth 5Y	35.71%
Net income growth quarters	4
Net income growth years	1
OCF growth	19.08%
OCF growth (Q)	55.95%
OCF growth (QoQ)	77.02%
OCF growth 10Y	9.94%
OCF growth 3Y	-2.72%
OCF growth 5Y	19.55%
Operating income growth	53.47%
Operating income growth (Q)	70.45%
Operating income growth 3Y	-5.77%
Operating income growth 5Y	28.14%
Revenue growth	20.04%
Revenue growth (Q)	17.57%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	11.88%
Revenue growth 10Y	6.35%
Revenue growth 3Y	-3.89%
Revenue growth 5Y	11.04%
Revenue growth quarters	6
Revenue growth years	1

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-1.1B
Depreciation and amortization	$888M
EBIT	$3B
EBITDA	$3.9B
EPS	$13.44
FCF per share	$12.62
Financing cash flow	$-1.1B
Free cash flow	$1.9B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.9B
Gross profit	$3.3B
Income taxes	$562M
Investing cash flow	$-1B
Net borrowing	$245M
Net cash flow	$794M
Net income	$2.1B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$2.9B
Operating income	$3B
Revenue	$7.7B
Stock-based compensation	$43M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	3.34
Book value per share	$37.92
Debt / EBITDA	0.9
Debt / equity	0.41
Debt / FCF	1.89
Goodwill	$2.5B
Interest coverage	17.46
Long-term assets	$11.3B
Long-term liabilities	$5.4B
Net cash (debt)	$-1.1B
Net cash / market cap	-6.26%
Net debt / EBITDA	0.29
Net debt / equity	0.13
Net debt / FCF	0.59
Piotroski F-Score	7
Property, plant and equipment	$7.1B
Shareholders' equity	$8.9B
Tangible book value	$2.8B
Tangible book value per share	$18.44
Total assets	$15.1B
Total cash	$2.5B
Total debt	$3.6B
Total liabilities	$6.2B
WACC	6.6%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.54
Current assets	$3.8B
Current liabilities	$772M
Current ratio	4.86
Inventory turnover	12.18
Net working capital	$604M
Quick ratio	4.14
Working capital	$3B
Working capital turnover	3.21

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	8.51%
Dividend growth	10%
Dividend growth (10Y)	6.25%
Dividend growth (3Y)	11.2%
Dividend growth (5Y)	12.89%
Dividend growth years	0
Dividend payment date	2026-11-30
Dividend payment years	22
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$2.40
Dividend yield	2.01%
Ex-dividend date	2026-11-16
FCF payout ratio	17.43%
Last dividend	$0.60
Payout ratio	16.37%
Shareholder yield	10.52%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	385.41%
10Y return CAGR	20.26%
10Y total return	532.5%
150-day SMA	$120.49
15Y price change	254.35%
15Y return CAGR	11.46%
15Y total return	408.99%
1D price change	-0.48%
1M price change	3.84%
1M total return	3.84%
1W price change	0.97%
1W total return	0.97%
1Y price change	37.83%
1Y return CAGR	40.71%
1Y total return	40.68%
20-day SMA	$117.28
200-day SMA	$115.98
20Y price change	2,875.26%
20Y return CAGR	20.78%
20Y total return	4,263.58%
3M price change	-0.59%
3M total return	-0.08%
3Y price change	49.06%
3Y return CAGR	16.88%
3Y total return	59.67%
50-day SMA	$123.49
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$141.96
52-week high date	2026-03-30
52-week low	$75.42
52-week low date	2025-12-10
5Y price change	109.85%
5Y return CAGR	18.44%
5Y total return	133.05%
6M price change	-3.69%
6M total return	-2.8%
All-time high	$141.96
All-time high date	2026-03-30
All-time low	$2.24
All-time low date	2005-10-13
Average true range (ATR)	$3.88
Average volume	2.2M
Beta (1Y)	-1.75
Beta (2Y)	-0.38
Beta (5Y)	0.53
Change from 52-week high	-15.5%
Change from 52-week low	59.07%
Change from all-time high	-16.12%
Change from all-time low	5,220.38%
Change from open	0.81%
Day's gap	-1.28%
Dollar volume	$122M
High price	$120.37
Low price	$118.62
Monthly RSI	58.9
Open price	$119.00
Position in 52-week range	76.57%
Premarket change	0.34%
Premarket close	$120.54
Premarket price	$120.95
Premarket volume	1.8K
Previous close	$120.54
Price vs 150-day SMA	-1.18%
Price vs 20-day SMA	1.53%
Price vs 200-day SMA	2.66%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-3.58%
Relative volume	0.45
RSI	49.02
Sharpe ratio	0.92
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.5
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.5
Sortino ratio	1.54
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.89
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.87
Volume	1M
Weekly RSI	51.17
YTD price change	53.96%
YTD total return	56.21%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	150.3M
Float percentage	99.3%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.39%
Shares change (YoY)	-8.51%
Shares held by insiders	0.53%
Shares held by institutions	107.09%
Shares outstanding	151.3M
Short % of float	6.64%
Short % of shares	6.59%
Short ratio	3.6 days

Deeper analysis on CF

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Scorecard

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this CF report

What is the latest published CF stock rating?

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full CF analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11, lives at /stocks/CF/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for CF?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-11 gives CF a fair value of USD 119 and a potential value of USD 190. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the CF page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-11). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldCF · Fair value $119+6.6%

Read full analysis →

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

Our latest published analysis: CF rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · CF

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All CF indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on CF

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	6.0
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	7.5
Profitability	8.5
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	8.0
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	7.5