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CME trades against a final fair-value range of $181.11-$341.31, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $181, high $341, with mid-point at $261.
Stock analysis

CME fair value $181–$341

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-20次回更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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株価
$302.37
▼ -41.21 (-13.63%)
公正価値
$261
$181–$341
評価
縮小
confidence 88/100
上昇余地
-13.6%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$221.99
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$109.6B
P/E fwd 23.5
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $261 with high case $341.
  • Implied downside of 13.6% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 88/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$261
Margin of safety
-15.8%
Confidence
88/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$302.37Price
Low $181.11
Mid $261.16
High $341.31

CME trades against a final fair-value range of $181.11-$341.31, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Near-monopoly network effects in interest
    Near-monopoly network effects in interest rate, energy, and agricultural derivatives.
  • Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as
    Vertically integrated clearinghouse acting as an insurmountable competitive barrier.
  • Cycle upside
    High macroeconomic uncertainty, fluctuating rates, and geopolitical shifts drive record hedging.

§2 ベアケース

A return to zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) crushes interest rate volatilityVolatilityVolatility is a price, risk, or intrinsic-value metric used to compare market price with estimated value or historical return behavior. It should be read as one input in a broader valuation range., dramatically suppressing trading volumes. Simultaneous regulatory pressure limits data fee extraction, resulting in stagnating earnings and multiple compression.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

ZIRP Return

20%· Medium

A return to zero interest rate policy permanently impairs interest rate volatility, collapsing core derivative trading volumes.

FV impact
Drives fair value to $181.11, a 40% downside from current prices.

Regulatory Fee Capping

10%· Low

Aggressive federal intervention caps market data and clearing fees, structurally limiting high-margin revenue streams.

FV impact
Reduces intrinsic value by ~15% via lower operating margins.

DeFi Disruption

5%· Low

Decentralized ledgers bypass traditional clearinghouses, destroying CME's core wide-moat monopolistic advantage over the long term.

FV impact
Catastrophic multiple compression to mid-teens P/E.
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Operating margin sustained contraction below 60%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward P/E multiple compressing to 15-18x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential declines in interest rate derivative open interest.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Regulatory actions enforcing strict caps on market data pricing.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Loss of market share in core agricultural or energy futures.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期間2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$4.69B$5.02B$5.58B$6.13B$6.52B+8.6%
売上総利益$3.85B$4.27B$4.75B$5.28B$5.61B+9.9%
営業利益$2.65B$3.02B$3.44B$3.93B$4.23B+12.4%
純利益$2.64B$2.69B$3.23B$3.53B$4.07B+11.5%
EPS (希薄化後)$7.29$7.40$8.86$9.67$11.16+11.2%
EBITDA$3.93B$4.02B$4.67B$5.04B$5.83B+10.4%
研究開発——————
販管費$151.7M$137.4M$144.4M$132.7M$150.5M-0.2%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
6 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
0.59
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-2.56
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
1.05×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
13.5%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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MARGINS FAQ

CME margins questions

  1. CME (CME)'s margin set covers gross margin, operating margin, net margin, and free-cash-flow margin. The five-year trajectory is plotted so the reader can separate cyclical noise from secular trend.

FAQ

CME — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, CME screens modestly overvalued. The current price is $302 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $261 (range $181–$341), which implies roughly 13.6% downside to the midpoint.

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