任意の製品分析
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Accelerating global adoption of premium silicone hydrogel daily disposable lenses (MyDay, clariti) across Europe and Asia, expanding revenue per wearer and driving consolidated operating margin expansion above 18.0%.
European annual revenue growth decelerates below 1.0% YoY alongside sustained euro weakness.
We rate The Cooper Companies a Strong Buy based on durable cash flow compounding in specialty vision care and an attractive 41.94% upside to our Fair value of $78.48.
The house rating is Strong Buy. For an ordinary investor, this means the stock presents exceptional risk-adjusted return potential where predictable operating compounding is available at a favorable entry valuation.2
The report was prepared at a price of $55.29 on September 18, 2026. Against this level, our Fair value stands at $78.48, representing 41.94% upside, while our Potential value reaches $92.70 if operating margin expansion accelerates.
The primary risk that would alter this view is deceleration of European revenue growth below 1.0% YoY or consolidated operating margins falling below 14.0%. If optical retail destocking or currency depreciation contracts European volume, cash generation would weaken, slowing debt reduction on $2,783.6M of total debt.245
The core reason the investment can succeed is CooperVision's high wearer retention and ongoing patient upgrade into premium daily disposable silicone hydrogel contact lenses. This dynamic drives recurring revenue growth of 3.5% to 4.5% and sustained segment operating profit ($729.6M in FY2025), lifting free cash flow and expanding intrinsic value per share toward Fair value.35
CooperVision generates $2,743.8M in revenue and $729.6M in operating profit, driven by high wearer retention and an ongoing mix shift to silicone hydrogel daily disposables.5
Trading at 11.34x forward earnings, shares offer 41.94% upside to the house Fair value of $78.48, presenting an asymmetric risk-reward profile relative to medtech peers.2
Operating cash flow of $796.1M converts net income at 2.12x, fully covering $362.4M in capex and supporting steady deleveraging of total debt.24
We rate The Cooper Companies a Strong Buy because its dominant daily disposable contact lens franchise generates resilient operating cash flow that is priced at a substantial discount to intrinsic value.5
CooperVision is a global manufacturer providing products for contact lens wearers. CooperVision develops, manufactures and markets a broad range of single-use, two-week and monthly contact lenses, featuring advanced materials and optics. CooperVision designs its products to address vision challenges such as astigmatism, presbyopia and myopia with a broad collection of spherical, toric and multifocal contact lenses. CooperSurgical offers a broad array of products and services focused on fertility and women's health. Its portfolio encompasses more than 600 products and services.
The Cooper Companies, Inc. (Cooper, the company ors the Company) is a global medical device company publicly traded on the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: COO). Cooper operates through two business units, CooperVision and CooperSurgical. The following table presents a summary of its business segment net sales:
Under a combined macro and operational downturn, euro depreciation and European optical retail softening reduce top-line compounding while Cooper Surgical operating margin remains depressed at 3.22%. With debt service on $2,783.6M of total debt absorbing cash at a 5.59% pre-tax cost of debt, consolidated operating margins compress toward 14.0%, testing historical trough valuation multiples.
The Bear scenario reflects prolonged macroeconomic weakness across European optical retail, adverse foreign currency translation, and aggressive private-label contact lens competition. Downside would be confirmed by gross margin contraction and persistent surgical segment stagnation, impairing earnings growth and compressing valuation multiples.
Deceleration of European revenue growth below 1.0% YoY weakens the international geographic penetration pillar and lowers fair value by -6.6%.
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Volume contraction across European optical retail chains coupled with currency depreciation that impairs international expansion.
現在:30.6% of FY2025 consolidated revenue ($1,253.2M)
警戒条件Below 1.0% YoY growth
Cooper maintains a narrow economic moat grounded in high switching costs and proprietary designs across Cooper Vision daily disposable contact lenses. Prescribing optometrists exhibit significant behavioral inertia, as refitting patients requires uncompensated chair time and trial lenses. Silicone hydrogel formulations in MyDay and clariti create tangible clinical barriers that protect segment profitability ($729.6M operating profit in FY2025). However, reported ROIC of 4.22% remains below the 7.67% WACC, weighed down by historical acquisition goodwill of $3,853.4M, preventing a wide moat classification.
While Cooper Vision generates strong cash earnings ($729.6M segment operating profit), consolidated invested capital remains weighed down by $3,853.4M in goodwill, keeping reported ROIC below WACC of 7.67%.15
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($78.48). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $500.4M after modeled reinvestment of $0, with terminal value at 39.3% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base case envisions steady compounding driven by ongoing conversion to premium daily disposable contact lenses, defensive gross margins, and gradual deleveraging. Performance tracks toward Fair value of $78.48, supported by stable replacement demand across optometry networks. The thesis would be challenged if European revenue decelerates or if surgical segment margins fail to recover.
Outperformance confirms market share gains in premium silicone hydrogel lenses and validates operating leverage toward Fair value of $78.48.
In-line execution reaffirms steady compounding thesis and supports ongoing convergence toward Fair value of $78.48.
A miss driven by European macro softness or contact lens pricing erosion weakens intermediate earnings growth expectations.
Earnings quality remains strong, demonstrated by operating cash flows substantially exceeding reported net income, with disciplined working capital and minimal accrual distortion.
Mix shift to single-use toric and multifocal modalities drives average revenue per patient and elevates segment profitability.
FY2025 operating cash flow reached $796.1M, converting reported net income of $374.9M at a strong 2.12x ratio. After funding capital expenditures of $362.4M, free cash flow stood at $433.7M, demonstrating self-funding operations.34
Management balanced capital deployment in FY2025 between $362.4M in manufacturing capex, $290.1M in share buybacks, and net debt reduction of $79.9M, steadily deleveraging total debt of $2,783.6M.
Reported GAAP return on invested capital of 4.22% is suppressed by $3,853.4M in goodwill from past acquisitions, masking underlying operating cash generation.
Reported ROIC of 4.22% trails WACC of 7.67%, though core vision operations generate $729.6M in operating profit on tangible assets.
Cooper Vision achieved 26.59% operating margin ($729.6M operating profit on $2,743.8M revenue) compared to Cooper Surgical's 3.22% operating margin ($43.4M on $1,348.6M revenue).
Consolidated margin expansion depends heavily on surgical segment turnaround and sustained daily disposable mix shifts in vision care.
Operating cash flow of $796.1M supports $100.0M of annual and debt service on total debt of $2,783.6M.
| 売上高 | $4,092,400,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $1,410,300,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $2,682,100,000 |
| 営業費用 | $1,999,200,000 |
| 営業利益 | $682,900,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$308,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $374,900,000 |
| 総資産 | $12,394,800,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $110,600,000 |
| 流動資産 | $2,106,400,000 |
| 負債合計 | $4,155,700,000 |
| 流動負債 | $1,112,800,000 |
| 株主資本 | $8,239,100,000 |
| 純利益 | $374,900,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $822,800,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $377,400,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $70,500,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $796,100,000 |
| 営業キャッシュ流出 | $26,700,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $909,400,000 |
| 期首現金 | $107,700,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $5,600,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $372,900,000 |
| 設備投資 | $362,400,000 |
| その他の投資活動 | $10,500,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流出 | $425,900,000 |
| 自社株買い | $290,100,000 |
| 純有利子負債返済 | $79,900,000 |
| その他の財務活動 | $55,900,000 |
| 期末現金 | $110,600,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$372,900,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | -$425,900,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2025-12-05 · SEC EDGAR
| 事業セグメント別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Vision | $27.4億 | 67% | 5.2% |
| Cooper Surgical | $13.5億 | 33% | 4.9% |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2025-12-05 · SEC EDGAR
| 地域別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $20.5億 | 50.2% | 4.5% |
| Europe | $12.5億 | 30.6% | 8.4% |
| Rest Of The World | $7.9億 | 19.2% | 1.5% |
2026-09-20の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-31 | $19.7億 | $5.2億 | $2.7億 | $5.1億 | $3.6億 | $1.5億 | $2億 | $2990万 | $0 | $290万 | — | -$4.2億 | -$140万 | — | $1億 | $1億 | $13.3億 | 16.5% | — | 5.0% | — |
| 2017-10-31 | $21.4億 | $6.2億 | $3.7億 | $5.9億 | $4.7億 | $1.3億 | $1.9億 | $3720万 | $5500万 | $290万 | — | -$3.8億 | -$2.3億 | $1億 | $8880万 | $8880万 | $11.7億 | 20.1% | — | 5.4% | — |
| 2018-10-31 | $25.3億 | $6.9億 | $1.4億 | $6.7億 | $4.8億 | $1.9億 | $2.8億 | $4320万 | $0 | $290万 | — | -$15.2億 | $8.4億 | $8880万 | $8020万 | $8020万 | $20.2億 | 15.9% | — | 5.9% | — |
| 2019-10-31 | $26.5億 | $8.3億 | $4.7億 | $7.1億 | $4.2億 | $2.9億 | $2.8億 | $3510万 | $1.6億 | $300万 | — | -$3.5億 | -$3.5億 | $8020万 | $8950万 | $8900万 | $18.3億 | 20.6% | — | 5.3% | — |
| 2020-10-31 | $24.3億 | $5.9億 | $2.4億 | $4.9億 | $1.8億 | $3.1億 | $2.9億 | $3760万 | $4780万 | $300万 | — | -$3.6億 | -$9550万 | $8950万 | $1.2億 | $1.2億 | $20.6億 | 12.8% | — | 3.9% | — |
| 2021-10-31 | $29.2億 | $8.2億 | $29.4億 | $7.4億 | $5.2億 | $2.1億 | $3.1億 | $4380万 | $2480万 | $300万 | — | -$4.5億 | -$3.1億 | $1.2億 | $9660万 | $9590万 | $14.8億 | 17.3% | — | 4.7% | — |
| 2022-10-31 | $33.1億 | $8.8億 | $3.9億 | $6.9億 | $4.5億 | $2.4億 | $3.5億 | $5420万 | $7850万 | $300万 | $12.8億 | -$18.3億 | $11.9億 | $9660万 | $1.4億 | $1.4億 | $27.6億 | 15.3% | — | 7.0% | — |
| 2023-10-31 | $35.9億 | $8.9億 | $2.9億 | $6.1億 | $2.2億 | $3.9億 | $3.7億 | $6210万 | $0 | $300万 | -$1.8億 | -$4.5億 | -$1.7億 | $1.4億 | $1.2億 | $1.2億 | $25.7億 | 14.8% | — | 8.0% | — |
| 2024-10-31 | $39億 | $10.7億 | $3.9億 | $7.1億 | $2.9億 | $4.2億 | $3.8億 | $7510万 | $0 | $0 | $560万 | -$7.6億 | $3920万 | $1.2億 | $1.1億 | $1.1億 | $25.8億 | 18.1% | — | 7.3% | — |
| 2025-10-31 | $40.9億 | $10.5億 | $3.7億 | $8億 | $4.3億 | $3.6億 | $3.8億 | $7050万 | $2.9億 | $0 | -$7990万 | -$3.7億 | -$4.3億 | $1.1億 | $1.1億 | $1.1億 | $27.8億 | 16.7% | — | 7.4% | — |
The Cooper Companies Inc. (COO) trades at 11.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 12.0x. Its EV/EBITDA of 14.1x compares with a peer median of 13.9x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Align Technology Inc., Solventum Corporation, Intuitive Surgical Inc. and Baxter International Inc., as of 2026-09-19 to 2026-09-20.
Annual capital expenditure of $362.4M represents 8.86% of revenue, supporting automated daily disposable contact lens manufacturing lines in line with industry capex-to-depreciation benchmarks of 0.80x.4
Accelerating global conversion from reusable lenses to premium single-use daily disposables, paired with rising worldwide myopia prevalence and demographic expansion in presbyopia treatments.
Optical retail destocking, consumer trade-down toward private label lenses during macroeconomic slowdowns, and adverse foreign exchange translation across European markets.
Cooper occupies a well-insulated position as a leading global supplier of specialty toric and multifocal lenses, shielding it from standard spherical commodity pricing.
Non-discretionary vision care demand, robust operating cash flow, and substantial valuation discount support an above-benchmark weighting.
Risk is mitigated by non-discretionary wearer replacement habits, recurring revenue in daily disposables, and ongoing debt paydown from annual operating cash flow of $796.1M.
CooperVision's high customer retention and daily disposable mix shift support durable 3.5% to 4.5% top-line growth and resilient operating cash generation.5
Trading at 11.34x forward earnings, shares sit well below the house Fair value of $78.48, providing a 41.94% upside margin of safety.2
Non-discretionary vision care demand and $796.1M in operating cash flow comfortably support debt service on $2,783.6M of total debt.24
We recommend a Strong Buy on The Cooper Companies based on durable cash compounding from CooperVision's daily disposable contact lens franchise, trading at a 29.55% discount to our Fair value of $78.48.
Strong operating cash flow of $796.1M covers capital expenditure of $362.4M and supports steady deleveraging of $2,783.6M in total debt.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
A fall in consolidated GAAP operating margin below 14.0% driven by surgical segment weakness compresses operating profit toward historical trough levels.
Valuation derating toward a 15.0x terminal multiple reflects low reported ROIC of 4.22% trailing WACC and contact lens price competition.
Operating margin compression toward historical trough levels driven by surgical segment stagnation and corporate overhead expansion.
現在:16.69% in FY2025 ($682.9M operating income on $4,092.4M revenue)
警戒条件Below 14.0%
Direct pricing pressure and retail private-label substitution eroding specialty contact lens price realization.
現在:65.54% in FY2025 ($2,682.1M gross profit on $4,092.4M revenue)
警戒条件Below 63.0%
Severe integration friction and post-acquisition restructuring delays causing prolonged profitability drag.
現在:3.22% in FY2025 ($43.4M operating profit on $1,348.6M revenue)
警戒条件Below 2.50%
Working capital deterioration or contact lens inventory build reducing cash available for debt service on $2,783.6M total debt.
現在:$796.1M in FY2025
警戒条件Below $600.0M
| medium |
| 12-18 months |
| Natural currency hedging via European operational infrastructure and diversified rest-of-world revenue streams of $785.2M.5 |
Under the moderate discount rate, $33.43 comes from forecast-period earnings and $46.54 from the long-term value, totaling $79.97.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Value each distinct segment, subtract corporate overhead and net debt, add probability-weighted optionality, and divide by diluted shares.
The Bull case models accelerated market share gains in specialty silicone hydrogel daily lenses across Europe and Asia, accompanied by operational integration in Cooper Surgical that lifts segment margins. This outcome delivers Potential value of $92.70 as valuation multiples expand. Slower adoption of daily modalities would disconfirm this trajectory.
Europe generates substantial consolidated sales; sustained growth confirms geographic penetration while weakness signals macro drag.
Surgical margin expansion is required to alleviate the profitability drag on consolidated operating results.
Gross margin stability indicates pricing power and resistance against private-label retail lens substitution.
Robust cash conversion enables ongoing debt repayment and cushions higher borrowing costs.
| FY2035 |
|---|
| Revenue | $4.24B | $4.41B | $4.58B | $4.74B | $4.90B | $5.05B | $5.20B | $5.35B | $5.50B | $5.66B |
| Revenue growth | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Operating margin | 17.4% | 17.9% | 18.3% | 18.5% | 18.6% | 18.5% | 18.6% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% |
| Operating income | $736.31M | $790.99M | $835.66M | $879.05M | $910.56M | $934.39M | $964.11M | $986.39M | $1.02B | $1.05B |
| Tax rate | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% | 32.0% |
| NOPAT | $500.39M | $537.55M | $567.91M | $597.40M | $618.82M | $635.01M | $655.21M | $670.35M | $690.89M | $712.08M |
| Reinvestment | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $90.29M | $186.31M | $285.93M | $392.92M | $506.22M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.2% | 28.4% | 42.7% | 56.9% | 71.1% |
| Depreciation and amortization | $390.89M | $406.82M | $422.33M | $437.17M | $451.49M | $465.53M | $479.38M | $493.16M | $507.18M | $521.60M |
| Free cash flow to firm | $500.39M | $537.55M | $567.91M | $597.40M | $618.82M | $544.73M | $468.89M | $384.42M | $297.97M | $205.86M |
| Cooper Vision revenue | $2.84B | $2.96B | $3.07B | $3.18B | $3.28B | $3.38B | $3.49B | $3.59B | $3.69B | $3.79B |
| Cooper Surgical revenue | $1.40B | $1.45B | $1.51B | $1.56B | $1.61B | $1.66B | $1.71B | $1.76B | $1.81B | $1.86B |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Gross margin of 65.54% ($2,682.1M on $4,092.4M revenue) outpaces hospital peer BAX at 34.10%.
Niche positioning protects core gross margin durability even as forward valuation multiples remain aligned with sector norms.
| マージン |
|---|
| COO | The Cooper Companies Inc. | $10.5B | 11.3x | 2.5x | 14.1x | 6.8% | — |
| ALGN | Align Technology Inc. | $10.5B | 11.8x | 2.5x | 10.3x | 10.2% | 18.2% |
| SOLV | Solventum Corporation | $15.1B | 12.3x | 1.8x | 17.6x | 34.0% | 9.8% |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical Inc. | $140.9B | 32.5x | 12.8x | 32.0x | 17.4% | 33.6% |
| BAX | Baxter International Inc. | $11.8B | 11.2x | 1.0x | 10.2x | -14.4% | 14.4% |
| Consolidated gross profit margin | 63.0% | Re-underwrite competitive moat strength and lower terminal multiple assumptions if private-label pricing pressure intensifies. |
