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COR trades against a final fair-value range of $342.15-$514.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $342, high $515, with mid-point at $428.
Stock analysis

COR COR fair value $342–$515

COR
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-13次回更新: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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株価
$260.93
▲ +166.64 (+63.86%)
公正価値
$428
$342–$515
評価
強い買い
confidence 78/100
上昇余地
+63.9%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$363.43
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$50.8B
P/E fwd 13.2
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $428 with high case $515.
  • Implied upside of 63.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 78/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$428
Margin of safety
+39.0%
Confidence
78/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$260.93Price
Low $342.15
Mid $427.57
High $514.68

COR trades against a final fair-value range of $342.15-$514.68, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Cost Advantage
    Massive scale as a dominant triopoly member ensures procurement efficiency and low per-unit costs.
  • Network Effect
    Irreplaceable intermediary connecting highly fragmented retail pharmacies with global biopharma manufacturers.
  • Bull thesis
    The market is incorrectly penalizing Cencora for short-term working capital anomalies, masking the highly durable 23% ROIC.

§2 ベアケース

A negative working capitalWorking capitalCurrent assets minus current liabilities. The capital tied up in the operating cycle (receivables and inventory) net of trade financing (payables). spiral combined with sustained operating marginOperating marginOperating income (EBIT) divided by revenue. Captures profitability after both direct costs and operating expenses but before interest, tax, and non-operating items. compression below 1.1% would break the capital return algorithm, rendering share repurchases dilutive.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Severe Drug Pricing Intervention

15%· Low

Aggressive legislative action structurally reduces US branded and generic drug pricing, crushing distribution fee economics and compressing margins below 1%.

FV impact
Severe (FV ~342)

Direct-to-Consumer Biopharma Pivot

10%· Low

Manufacturers systematically bypass wholesale networks for specialty and blockbuster treatments, structurally degrading top-line growth and ROIC.

FV impact
Severe (FV < 300)

Generic Deflation Acceleration

20%· Medium

Intense generic price deflation outpaces unit volume growth, eroding gross profit dollars and causing operating leverage to inflect negatively.

FV impact
Moderate
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Operating margins persistently dropping below the 1.1% historical floor.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Negative free cash flow persists beyond short-term working capital anomalies.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major contract losses with top-tier pharmacy chains or health systems.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant manufacturer shifts to direct distribution models for high-margin specialty drugs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Legislative shifts implementing structural caps on wholesale distribution margins.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期間2022-09-302023-09-302024-09-302025-09-30Trend
売上高$238.59B$262.17B$293.96B$321.33B+10.4%
売上総利益$8.30B$8.96B$9.91B$11.48B+11.4%
営業利益$2.75B$2.69B$3.16B$3.93B+12.6%
純利益$1.70B$1.75B$1.51B$1.55B-2.9%
EPS (希薄化後)$8.04$8.53$7.53$7.96-0.3%
EBITDA$3.10B$3.37B$3.37B$3.75B+6.5%
研究開発
販管費$4.85B$5.31B$5.66B$6.49B+10.2%

品質スコア

OCF / 純利益
2.49×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
23.1%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

COR — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, COR looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $261 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $428 (range $342–$515), which implies roughly 63.9% upside to the midpoint.
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