任意の製品分析
許可いただいた場合、プライバシーに配慮した限定的な分析を使用し、どのリサーチ経路が有効かを把握します。広告トラッカーやセッション録画は使用しません。この選択は設定で変更できます。詳しくは プライバシーポリシー.
Accelerated enterprise adoption of Agentforce autonomous agents and Flex Credit refills, which doubled quarterly bookings, driving operating margins toward 34.3% and expanding valuation toward Potential value of $254.06 per share.
Subscription revenue growth decelerating below 5.0% YoY for two consecutive quarters.
We rate Salesforce a Hold: at the report-date price of $237.50 on September 21, 2026, shares trade at a 7.55% premium to our Fair value of $220.82,.3
A Hold rating means that current investors should maintain existing holdings rather than committing new money to the stock. While Salesforce is a dominant enterprise franchise with high customer renewal rates, the September 21, 2026 price does not provide an adequate margin of safety.
The stock traded at $237.50 on September 21, 2026. This price sits 7.55% above our Fair value of $220.82, leaving -7.02% upside to the central estimate. If enterprise artificial intelligence adoption accelerates, the business can reach our Potential value of $254.06, offering 6.97% upside from the report-date price.
The principal risk to our view is corporate enterprise software budget tightening and seat-based licensing scrutiny. If customer organizations freeze hiring or rationalize seats, annual subscription growth could decelerate below 5.0%. At the same time, onboarding 1,200 new sales representatives would increase overhead before bringing in revenue. Readers would see this unfold as slowing subscription growth in quarterly reports and GAAP operating margins dropping below 18.0%.467
The primary opportunity for value creation is the rapid enterprise deployment of Agentforce autonomous agents. When customers deploy these agents, they buy extra usage credits on top of standard software subscriptions, which doubled quarterly bookings in recent results. Because software distribution costs very little capital once built, higher usage lifts operating margins toward 34.3% and converts directly into expanding free cash flow per share,.45
Subscription and support revenue delivers $39.39B annually (94.9% of revenue) with customer attrition near historic lows, providing predictable cash flow,.47
Quarterly bookings doubled year-over-year with 50% driven by customer Flex Credit refills, establishing an incremental consumption revenue stream.4
Salesforce converted $15.00B of operating cash flow into $14.40B in free cash flow with minimal capex intensity of $594M (1.43% of sales),.6
We rate Salesforce a Hold because the shares trade at a modest premium to Fair value, balancing strong enterprise software lock-in against near-term distribution hiring overhead,.3
Its service offerings are designed to be flexible, scalable and easy to use. They can generally be configured easily, deployed rapidly and integrated with other platforms and enterprise applications. Salesforce, Inc. sells to businesses worldwide, primarily on a subscription basis, through its direct sales efforts and also indirectly through partners. Salesforce, Inc. offers Starter Suite, an all-in-one, easy-to-use solution for small and medium-size businesses that brings sales, service, marketing and commerce together. Starter Suite helps businesses launch Salesforce quickly and easily, so they can save time, boost productivity, and manage relationships with all of their customer operations in one centralized location.
Starter Suite allows businesses to build a trusted foundation of customer data for advanced AI technology to support efficient business growth.
A stress test combining enterprise IT spending cuts with delayed quota productivity for 1,200 newly hired account executives compresses GAAP operating margins below 18.0%. In this event, free cash flow falls toward the cash-flow floor of $195.94 per share established by owner earnings.
The downside scenario envisions enterprise software spending rationalization and scrutiny of seat-based licensing, which slows multi-cloud additions and extends deal closing cycles. Fixed sales onboarding overhead suppresses operating margins while competition from specialized workflow software pressures pricing power. The trajectory would be signaled by an uptick in customer attrition or deceleration in remaining performance obligations within the next two quarters.
Corporate software spending cuts and seat rationalization curtail user expansions across Sales ($9.03B) and Service ($9.82B) clouds,, dragging subscription revenue growth below 5.0% YoY and reducing free cash flow compounding.7
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Confirms enterprise seat rationalization and reduced multi-cloud expansion.
現在:94.9% of total revenue ($39.39B in FY2025)
警戒条件Deceleration below 5.0% for two consecutive quarters
Salesforce possesses a wide economic moat rooted in enterprise switching costs and platform ecosystem gravity. Once an enterprise embeds customer records, sales pipelines, and customer support operations into Salesforce, migrating to an alternative platform entails severe business disruption and implementation costs.
Subscription revenue represents $39.39B or 94.9% of total revenue, providing highly visible recurring cash flow that shields the company against point-solution competitors.
Salesforce sustains economic value creation with return on equity at 19.38% against a cost of equity of 10.00%, generating $14.40B in free cash flow on $41.53B of revenue in FY2025,.156
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($220.82). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
The modal path assumes Salesforce compounds subscription revenue at a steady pace while expanding operating margins toward long-term targets. This requires stable multi-cloud renewals, disciplined overhead management, and sustained low customer attrition across Sales and Service clouds. The path is confirmed by ongoing contract length stability, while deceleration in constant-currency subscription expansion would disconfirm the thesis by the end of the fiscal year.47
Accelerating customer adoption of Agentforce usage credits proves that top-line revenue is reaccelerating.
Results confirm the mature compounder trajectory, maintaining steady subscription renewals and disciplined cost control.
Weakening seat additions or extended enterprise sales cycles signal that point-solution competition is eroding platform pricing power.
Earnings quality is supported by robust cash conversion, as operating cash flow consistently exceeds net income, accompanied by negligible inventory requirements and modest capital expenditure intensity,. Stock-based compensation remains a significant ongoing expense that reduces cash available for common share repurchases.6
Salesforce converted $15.00B of operating cash flow into $14.40B of free cash flow in FY2025,. Capital expenditure of $594M represented just 1.43% of $41.53B in revenue,, demonstrating remarkable cash flow conversion.56
Management returned $12.60B via share repurchases and paid $1.59B in dividends in FY2025, backed by $9.57B in total cash and marketable securities against $14.44B in total debt.
GAAP operating margin expansion from 2.07% in FY2022 to 20.06% in FY2025 demonstrates sustained cost restructuring and operating leverage.
Return on equity of 19.38% exceeds the 10.00% cost of equity, generating positive economic spread.
Generated $14.40B in free cash flow on capex of $594M in FY2025,.
Provides self-funding capacity for share repurchases and balance sheet liquidity.
| 売上高 | $41,525,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $9,270,000,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $32,255,000,000 |
| 営業費用 | $23,924,000,000 |
| 営業利益 | $8,331,000,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$874,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $7,457,000,000 |
| 総資産 | $112,305,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $7,327,000,000 |
| 流動資産 | $28,222,000,000 |
| 負債合計 | $53,163,000,000 |
| 流動負債 | $37,118,000,000 |
| 株主資本 | $59,142,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $7,457,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $14,996,000,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $1,200,000,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $3,509,000,000 |
| その他の営業調整 | $2,830,000,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $14,996,000,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $23,996,000,000 |
| 期首現金 | $8,848,000,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $152,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $8,590,000,000 |
| 設備投資 | $594,000,000 |
| その他の投資活動 | $7,996,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流出 | $8,079,000,000 |
| 期末現金 | $7,327,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$8,590,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | -$8,079,000,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-03-02 · SEC EDGAR
| 地域別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Americas | $271.9億 | 65.5% | 8.2% |
| Europe | $100.2億 | 24.1% | 12.7% |
| Asia Pacific | $43.2億 | 10.4% | 11.8% |
2026-09-21の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-31 | $84.4億 | $8.5億 | $3.2億 | $21.6億 | $17億 | $4.6億 | $6.3億 | $8.2億 | — | $0 | — | -$26.8億 | $10億 | — | $16.1億 | $22.1億 | $27.1億 | 2.6% | — | 7.3% | — |
| 2018-01-31 | $105.4億 | $10.4億 | $3.6億 | $27.4億 | $22億 | $5.3億 | $3.7億 | $10億 | — | $0 | — | -$20.1億 | $2.2億 | $16.1億 | $25.4億 | $45.2億 | $17.3億 | 4.3% | — | 7.0% | — |
| 2019-01-31 | $132.8億 | $21億 | $11.1億 | $34億 | $28億 | $6億 | $4.1億 | $12.8億 | — | — | — | -$53.1億 | $20.1億 | $25.4億 | $26.7億 | $43.4億 | $32億 | 4.0% | — | 7.1% | — |
| 2020-01-31 | $171億 | $23.4億 | $1.3億 | $43.3億 | $36.9億 | $6.4億 | $4.6億 | $17.9億 | — | — | — | -$29.8億 | $1.6億 | $26.7億 | $41.5億 | $79.5億 | $26.9億 | 1.7% | — | 6.0% | — |
| 2021-01-31 | $212.5億 | $11.3億 | $40.7億 | $48億 | $40.9億 | $7.1億 | $5.8億 | $21.9億 | $0 | — | — | -$39.7億 | $11.9億 | $41.5億 | $62億 | $119.7億 | $26.8億 | 2.1% | — | 5.5% | — |
| 2022-01-31 | $264.9億 | $26.4億 | $14.4億 | $60億 | $52.8億 | $7.2億 | $6.8億 | $27.8億 | $0 | — | — | -$145.4億 | $78.4億 | $62億 | $54.6億 | $105.4億 | $106億 | 2.1% | — | 6.2% | — |
| 2023-01-31 | $313.5億 | $67.1億 | $2.1億 | $71.1億 | $63.1億 | $8億 | $9億 | $32.8億 | $40億 | $0 | -$4.2億 | -$19.9億 | -$35.6億 | $54.6億 | $70.2億 | $125.1億 | $106億 | 3.3% | — | 8.1% | — |
| 2024-01-31 | $348.6億 | $92.2億 | $41.4億 | $102.3億 | $95億 | $7.4億 | $11億 | $27.9億 | $76.2億 | $0 | -$18.1億 | -$13.3億 | -$74.8億 | $70.2億 | $84.7億 | $141.9億 | $94.3億 | 14.4% | — | 8.9% | — |
| 2025-01-31 | $379億 | $111.4億 | $62億 | $130.9億 | $124.3億 | $6.6億 | $10億 | $31.8億 | $78.3億 | $15.4億 | -$16億 | -$31.6億 | -$94.3億 | $84.7億 | $88.5億 | $140.3億 | $84.3億 | 19.0% | — | 9.6% | — |
| 2026-01-31 | $415.3億 | $131.5億 | $74.6億 | $150億 | $144億 | $5.9億 | $12億 | $35.1億 | $126億 | $15.9億 | $54.2億 | -$85.9億 | -$80.8億 | $88.5億 | $73.3億 | $95.7億 | $144.4億 | 20.1% | — | 9.5% | — |
Salesforce Inc. (CRM) trades at 14.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.7x. Its EV/EBITDA of 17.6x compares with a peer median of 16.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Uber Technologies Inc., ServiceNow Inc., Adobe Inc. and Intuit Inc., as of 2026-09-21.
The software industry exhibits high capital intensity with capex-to-depreciation of 2.45x and capex-to-revenue of 17.8%. Salesforce maintains an asset-light model with FY2025 capex of $594M on $41.53B revenue (1.43% of sales),.6
Enterprise migration toward autonomous AI agents accelerates consumption billing, where credit refills compound on top of contracted subscription revenues.
Corporate IT spending freezes lead enterprise customers to curtail user seats and delay multi-cloud expansions, slowing top-line revenue growth toward mid-single digits.
With $39.39B in recurring subscription revenue and core scale across Sales ($9.03B) and Service ($9.82B) clouds,, Salesforce maintains market leadership against specialized peers.27
A measured position sizing of 2-3% reflects Salesforce's mature compounder status and wide economic moat, balanced against fair valuation where the share price of $237.50 sits slightly above Fair value of $220.82.3
Risk management centers on monitoring customer renewal attrition and sales representative productivity. Because the stock trades at $237.50, which represents a 7.55% premium to Fair value of $220.82, new capital allocation should remain patient until price aligns with the fair value range.
Salesforce possesses a wide economic moat with 94.9% recurring subscription revenue ($39.39B in FY2025), but shares trade at $237.50, which is a 7.55% premium to Fair value of $220.82. Long-term investors should hold existing positions and wait for a pullback toward Fair value before deploying new capital.37
Agentforce bookings doubled year-over-year with 50% from customer Flex Credit refills, confirming artificial intelligence monetization potential. However, hiring 1,200 additional account executives toward 15,000 adds near-term operating expense overhead, justifying a Hold until quota productivity materializes.4
With $14.40B in annual free cash flow and $1.76 per share in dividends, balance sheet liquidity is exceptional. Yet without a valuation discount, capital preservation requires patience rather than chasing current market prices.5
We recommend holding Salesforce Inc. at the report-date price of $237.50 on September 21, 2026. The stock trades at a 7.55% premium to our central Fair value of $220.82, leaving insufficient margin of safety for new capital allocation despite the company's wide economic moat.3
Salesforce benefits from deep enterprise workflow lock-in across $39.39B in subscription revenue and early monetization from Agentforce autonomous agents. However, operational expansion overhead from adding 1,200 account executives and ongoing equity dilution of $3.51B warrant disciplined position sizing.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Valuation multiples compress from 20.0x toward mature enterprise peer levels of 16.0x as top-line revenue growth moderates, lowering the multiple investors pay for future earnings.
Hiring 1,200 additional account executives to hit 15,000 elevates sales overhead ahead of revenue conversion, suppressing GAAP operating margin below the FY2026 baseline of 20.06%.46
Indicates sales hiring overhead is diluting operational profitability.
現在:20.06% in FY2025
警戒条件Contraction below 18.0% annually
Demonstrates persistent foreign currency drag and macro headwinds in overseas markets.
現在:34.5% total international mix ($10.02B Europe, $4.32B APAC in FY2025),
警戒条件Deceleration below 2.0% annually
Reveals competitive encroachment from specialized enterprise workflow automation peers.
現在:$9.03B Sales and $9.82B Service in FY2025,
警戒条件Deceleration below 4.0% YoY
Indicates excessive equity dilution offsetting per-share free cash flow compounding.
現在:8.45% ($3.51B on $41.53B revenue in FY2025),
警戒条件Exceeds 10.0% of revenue
| 24 to 36 months |
| Maintaining an integrated system of record across $9.03B Sales and $9.82B Service clouds,.7 |
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
The optimistic outcome requires rapid customer adoption of autonomous agents, driving consumption credit refills on top of the established seat base. Operating margins surpass guided levels as new account executives achieve rapid quota productivity without proportionate cost inflation. The catalyst is validated if second-half bookings sustain triple-digit expansion, whereas a stagnation in usage credit consumption would disconfirm the acceleration by the upcoming annual report.4
Adding sales capacity expands pipeline reach, but onboarding overhead can suppress margins until new representatives reach quota productivity.4
| $54.85B |
| $58.42B |
| $61.34B |
| Operating income | $13.89B | $15.24B | $16.46B | $17.53B | $18.40B |
| NOPAT | $11.28B | $12.37B | $13.36B | $14.23B | $14.94B |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $9.02B | $9.90B | $10.69B | $11.38B | $11.95B |
| Revenue growth | 11.5% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% |
| Operating margin | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Tax rate | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| Reinvestment rate | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Stock-based compensation reached $3.51B in FY2025, or 8.45% of total revenue.
Dilution absorbs a meaningful portion of operating cash flow, requiring ongoing share buybacks.
Operating income rose to $8.33B in FY2025, supporting guided GAAP operating margin of 20.1%.
Underwrites long-term normalization toward 30.0% operating margin.
| マージン |
|---|
| CRM | Salesforce Inc. | $195.8B | 14.3x | 4.4x | 17.6x | 19.4% | — |
| UBER | Uber Technologies Inc. | $145.0B | 16.1x | 2.6x | 20.7x | 37.2% | 13.3% |
| NOW | ServiceNow Inc. | $141.8B | 27.4x | 9.6x | 49.7x | 14.2% | 4.1% |
| ADBE | Adobe Inc. | $99.0B | 9.0x | 3.8x | 10.2x | 61.9% | 34.8% |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | $81.1B | 11.2x | 3.8x | 12.0x | 23.6% | 17.6% |
| Falls below 18.0% over trailing twelve months |
| Review cost structure and trim exposure due to sales distribution overhead drag,.46 |
| Sales and Service Cloud Revenue Growth | Decelerates below 4.0% YoY | Re-evaluate competitive win rates against enterprise workflow peers and adjust terminal growth assumptions,.7 |
| International Revenue Growth | Falls below 2.0% YoY | Reduce international growth contribution and assess foreign exchange hedging exposure,.7 |
