CRWD trades against a final fair-value range of $91.54-$123.84, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $91.5, high $124, with mid-point at $108.
Stock analysis
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. fair value $108–$124
Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$108
Margin of safety
-334.6%
Confidence
74/100
Moat
6.5/10
Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.
$468.07Price
FV $107.69
High $123.84
CRWD trades against a final fair-value range of $91.54-$123.84, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.
High switching costs associated with
High switching costs associated with deeply embedded endpoint agents.
Network effects from vast threat
Network effects from vast threat intelligence data lake.
Cycle upside
Vendor consolidation favors integrated platforms like Falcon.
§2 ベアケース
At current multiples, the stock offers zero margin of safety. A failure to execute flawlessly on top-line growth or margin expansion will trigger a severe multiple contraction.
このテーゼが崩れる経路
Margin Compression
· High
Fierce competition from Microsoft and PANW forces pricing compression, capping terminal margins below 20%.
FV impact
-30%
SBC Dilution
· Medium
Failure to rein in excessive stock-based compensation (22.7% of revenue) structurally impairs per-share intrinsic value.
FV impact
-20%
Growth Deceleration
· Low
Market saturation in endpoint security causes revenue growth to decelerate sharply below the 20% required by current multiples.
FV impact
-50%
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標
現在
トリガーしきい値
Net new ARR growth decelerates for two consecutive quarters.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Gross retention dips below 97%.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
SBC remains above 20% of revenue without a clear path to the 7.8% industry median.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins fail to scale towards the 30% terminal target.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
Increased discounting observed in enterprise renewals.
Monitor
Deterioration versus the report thesis
§3 財務履歴
損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目
T−0
T−1
T−2
T−3
T−4
CAGR
期間
2022-01-31
2023-01-31
2024-01-31
2025-01-31
2026-01-31
Trend
売上高
$1.45B
$2.24B
$3.06B
$3.95B
$4.81B
+34.9%
売上総利益
$1.07B
$1.64B
$2.30B
$2.96B
$3.59B
+35.4%
営業利益
$-142.5M
$-190.1M
$-2.0M
$-120.4M
$-293.3M
—
純利益
$-234.8M
$-183.2M
$89.3M
$-19.3M
$-162.5M
—
EPS (希薄化後)
$-1.03
$-0.79
$0.37
$-0.08
—
—
EBITDA
$-66.0M
$-40.8M
$293.8M
$294.8M
$182.5M
—
研究開発
$371.3M
$608.4M
$768.5M
$1.08B
$1.38B
+39.0%
販管費
$839.6M
$1.22B
$1.53B
$2.01B
$2.50B
+31.4%
品質スコア
Piotroski F-スコア
4 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
11.4
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-2.95
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
-9.92
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
34.9%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3
Numbers analysis
キャッシュフロー
Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCF / net income, accounting-quality, and ROIC rows above.
資本配分
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加
完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。
Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.
Based on our latest independent analysis, CRWD looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $468 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $108 (range $91.5–$124), which implies roughly 77.0% downside to the midpoint.
Our composite fair-value range for CRWD is $91.5–$124, with a midpoint of $108. The range is triangulated across multiple valuation models (discounted earnings, forward earnings scenarios, peer multiples, and where applicable owner earnings or reverse DCF) and weighted by reliability for CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.'s archetype.
Our current rating for CRWD is Sell with a confidence score of 74/100. CRWD is rated Sell at $468.07 versus the reconciled fair value midpoint of $107.69, implying -76.99% upside/downside. Confidence is separately disclosed at 74/100. This is independent research for educational purposes, not personalized investment advice.
The top risks our latest report flags for CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. are: Margin Compression; SBC Dilution; Growth Deceleration. The single biggest risk is Margin Compression: Fierce competition from Microsoft and PANW forces pricing compression, capping terminal margins below 20%.
Our current rating for CRWD is Sell, issued with a confidence score of 74/100 and a moat score of 6.5/10. The rating reflects the composite fair-value range ($91.5–$124) versus the current price of $468.
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. is classified as a pre-profit stock. Archetype determines how every downstream parameter — discount rate, terminal growth, deceleration curve, terminal multiple, scenario probability weights, scorecard weights, and which valuation models are prioritized — is calibrated for CRWD.
