Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)

NASDAQ: DLTR · USD

$127

+3.52 (+2.9%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-07

Our latest published analysis: DLTR rated Hold

Dollar Tree, Inc.'s published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$127 / share

Potential value

$152 / share

Upside to FV

+9.6%

from $127

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$21.7B
Revenue (ttm)	20.1B
Net income (ttm)	1.6B
EPS (ttm)	$8.15
Shares out	187.6M
P/E (trailing)	15.6x
P/E (forward)	16.9x
Volume	1,233,319
Beta	0.72

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 20.1B
Net income (ttm): 1.6B
EPS (ttm): $8.15
P/E (trailing): 15.6x
P/E (forward): 16.9x
Market cap: $21.7B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2022-01-29	2023-01-28	2024-02-03	2025-02-01	2026-01-31	Trend
Revenue	$26.31B	$15.41B	$16.77B	$17.57B	$19.40B	-7.3%
Gross profit	$7.73B	$5.78B	$6.01B	$6.28B	$7.05B	-2.3%
Operating income	$1.81B	$2.10B	$1.77B	$1.46B	$1.65B	-2.3%
Net income	$1.33B	$1.62B	$-998.4M	$-3.03B	$1.28B	-0.9%
EPS (diluted)	$5.80	$7.21	$-4.54	$-14.03	$6.22	+1.8%
EBITDA	$2.53B	$2.46B	$2.17B	$2.02B	$2.36B	-1.7%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$5.93B	$3.68B	$4.25B	$4.83B	$5.47B	-2.0%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	売り
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	売り
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	強い買い
ADM	Archer-Daniels-Midland Company	37.3B	21.2x	0.5x	5.0%	+1.8%	+28.5%	縮小
BF.B	Brown-Forman Corporation Class B	12.7B	17.9x	3.3x	14.3%	+1.6%	+0.4%	買い
CAG	Conagra Brands, Inc.	6.6B	—	0.6x	9.2%	+0.2%	-18.9%	強い買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base60%

Price target

$127.00

+9.6% from spot

The Base scenario projects a target value of $127.00 with an assigned probability of 60.0%, representing an implied return of 9.6% relative to share price $115.87. For this pathway to unfold, consumable assortments must continue driving store traffic while multi-price adoption expands transaction size without consumer resistance. Variety merchandise must maintain near parity with consumables to defend gross margin, while capital expenditures taper from peak levels toward maintenance intensity to unlock operating cash flow. Disconfirming evidence would emerge if comparable store sales growth stalls, gross margin contracts toward discount peer levels, or conversion capital outlays remain elevated into FY2027. Investors will evaluate progress through upcoming quarterly reports tracking merchandise mix and capital expenditure pacing.

Everyday consumable merchandise sustains customer visit frequency while multi-price format conversions expand basket size across the retail fleet.
Variety merchandise sales maintain near parity with consumable volume, defending consolidated gross margin against trade-down pressure.
Capital spending moderates from peak multi-year conversion intensity toward normalized maintenance levels.
Operating margin normalizes modestly as retail volume leverage balances wage increases and distribution investments.

Bull20%

Price target

$151.74

+31.0% from spot

The Bull scenario projects a target value of $151.74 with an assigned probability of 20.0%, offering an implied return of 31.0% against share price $115.87, reaching toward Potential value $151.74. Realizing this pathway requires rapid customer acceptance of higher multi-price tiers without unit volume friction, driving meaningful basket size expansion and lifting variety merchandise sales. Simultaneously, supply chain automation must drive operating margin expansion, while store fleet capital outlays normalize swiftly to unlock substantial free cash flow. This scenario would be disconfirmed if promotional discounting becomes necessary to defend transaction counts or if store conversion delays escalate capital commitments through FY2027.

Multi-price assortment rollouts achieve rapid customer adoption, expanding consumable basket size and lifting variety sales.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($127.00). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
7.5%	$139	$143	$147	$153	$159
8.0%	$129	$133	$136	$140	$145
8.5%	$121	$124	$127	$130	$134
9.0%	$114	$117	$119	$122	$125
9.5%	$108	$110	$112	$115	$117

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E17

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E13.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE46

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC13.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All DLTR indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

276

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 276 of 276 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000935703
Company name	Dollar Tree, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	256746108
Earnings date	2026-12-02
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	153,032
Employees change	-61,678
Employees growth	-28.73%
Enterprise value	$30.5B
Exchange	NASDAQ
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-08-01
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	January
Founded	1986
In index	SP500
Industry	Discount Stores
IPO date	1995-03-06
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US2567461080
Last 10-K release date	2026-03-16
Last earnings date	2026-08-27
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2012-06-27
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$23.9B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-12-02
Options	Yes
Price	$127.17
Price currency	USD
Sector	Consumer Staples
SIC code	5331
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	DLTR
U.S. state	Virginia
Website	https://www.dollartree.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	15.49x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	19.8x
Earnings yield	6.41%
EV/Earnings	18.73x
EV/EBIT	16.67x
EV/EBITDA	12.06x
EV/FCF	15.27x
EV/Sales	1.51x
FCF / EV yield	6.55%
FCF yield	8.38%
Forward EV/Sales	1.42x
Forward P/E	18.37x
Forward P/S	1.11x
Graham number	57.85843
Graham upside	-53.99%
Industry forward P/E	36.27x
Industry P/E	38.52x
Lynch fair value	$40.76
Lynch upside	-67.58%
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	12.35x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	7.74x
P/B ratio	6.77x
P/E ratio	15.6x
P/FCF ratio	11.93x
P/OCF ratio	7.57x
P/S ratio	1.18x
PEG ratio	1.29x
Price / tangible book value	7.86x
Price/EBITDA ratio	9.42x
Sector forward P/E	21.33x
Sector P/E	28.29x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	9.03%
EBITDA margin	12.48%
Effective tax rate	24.62%
FCF margin	9.86%
Gross margin	37.18%
Operating margin	9.03%
Pretax margin	10.7%
Profit margin	8.03%
Profit per employee	$10,537
Profitable quarters	6
Profitable years	1
Revenue per employee	$131,141
ROA	8.26%
ROA (5Y)	5.46%
ROCE	16.89%
ROE	46.03%
ROE (5Y)	20.37%
ROIC	13.57%
ROIC (5Y)	9.6%
SBC / revenue	0.34%
Tax / revenue	2.63%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth (Q)	197.18%
EPS growth (QoQ)	53.37%
EPS growth 10Y	10.46%
EPS growth 3Y	14.03%
EPS growth 5Y	5.12%
EPS growth quarters	6
EPS growth years	1
FCF growth	32.09%
FCF growth (Q)	286.71%
FCF growth (QoQ)	72.46%
FCF growth 3Y	56.3%
FCF growth 5Y	11.83%
Gross profit growth	12.26%
Gross profit growth (Q)	9.95%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-5.49%
Gross profit growth 5Y	-1.2%
Net income growth (Q)	173.09%
Net income growth (QoQ)	48.14%
Net income growth 3Y	9.79%
Net income growth 5Y	1.6%
Net income growth quarters	6
Net income growth years	1
OCF growth	18.62%
OCF growth (Q)	119.56%
OCF growth (QoQ)	43.09%
OCF growth 10Y	7.54%
OCF growth 3Y	15.59%
OCF growth 5Y	9.11%
Operating income growth	18.94%
Operating income growth (Q)	36.19%
Operating income growth 3Y	0.66%
Operating income growth 5Y	-3.47%
Revenue growth	8.18%
Revenue growth (Q)	7.02%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-1.7%
Revenue growth 10Y	-0.16%
Revenue growth 3Y	-11.86%
Revenue growth 5Y	-4.88%
Revenue growth quarters	7
Revenue growth years	2

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-1.1B
Depreciation and amortization	$691.8M
EBIT	$1.8B
EBITDA	$2.5B
EPS	$8.15
FCF per share	$10.54
Financing cash flow	$-1.6B
Free cash flow	$2B
Free cash flow minus SBC	$1.9B
Gross profit	$7.5B
Income taxes	$528.5M
Investing cash flow	$-1.1B
Net borrowing	$200.8M
Net cash flow	$344.5M
Net income	$1.6B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$3B
Operating income	$1.8B
Revenue	$20.1B
Stock-based compensation	$68M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	3.5
Book value per share	$18.25
Debt / EBITDA	1.88
Debt / equity	2.24
Debt / FCF	3.88
Goodwill	$422.1M
Interest coverage	24.45
Long-term assets	$10.3B
Long-term liabilities	$7.3B
Net cash (debt)	$-6.6B
Net cash / market cap	-28.03%
Net debt / EBITDA	2.64
Net debt / equity	1.93
Net debt / FCF	3.34
Piotroski F-Score	7
Property, plant and equipment	$9.7B
Shareholders' equity	$3.4B
Tangible book value	$3B
Tangible book value per share	$16.00
Total assets	$14B
Total cash	$1.1B
Total debt	$7.7B
Total liabilities	$10.6B
WACC	6.36%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.46
Current assets	$3.7B
Current liabilities	$3.3B
Current ratio	1.13
Inventory turnover	4.91
Net working capital	$394.4M
Quick ratio	0.32
Working capital	$441.5M
Working capital turnover	70.6

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	6.94%
Dividend yield	0%
Shareholder yield	6.94%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	70.81%
10Y return CAGR	5.5%
10Y total return	70.81%
150-day SMA	$115.02
15Y price change	219.28%
15Y return CAGR	8.05%
15Y total return	219.28%
1D price change	2.85%
1M price change	11.48%
1M total return	11.48%
1W price change	1.35%
1W total return	1.35%
1Y price change	23.96%
1Y return CAGR	23.98%
1Y total return	23.96%
20-day SMA	$120.97
200-day SMA	$116.77
20Y price change	1,139.84%
20Y return CAGR	13.42%
20Y total return	1,139.88%
3M price change	1.3%
3M total return	1.3%
3Y price change	17.49%
3Y return CAGR	5.52%
3Y total return	17.49%
50-day SMA	$121.68
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$142.40
52-week high date	2026-01-15
52-week low	$85.88
52-week low date	2026-05-13
5Y price change	21.71%
5Y return CAGR	4.01%
5Y total return	21.71%
6M price change	29.77%
6M total return	29.77%
All-time high	$177.19
All-time high date	2022-04-21
All-time low	$1.05
All-time low date	1995-03-07
Average true range (ATR)	$4.11
Average volume	1.8M
Beta (1Y)	0.73
Beta (2Y)	0.47
Beta (5Y)	0.72
Change from 52-week high	-10.7%
Change from 52-week low	48.08%
Change from all-time high	-28.23%
Change from all-time low	11,976.92%
Change from open	3.28%
Day's gap	-0.42%
Dollar volume	$156.8M
High price	$127.36
Low price	$122.61
Monthly RSI	56.22
Open price	$123.13
Position in 52-week range	96%
Premarket change	0.28%
Premarket close	$123.65
Premarket price	$123.99
Premarket volume	444
Previous close	$123.65
Price vs 150-day SMA	10.57%
Price vs 20-day SMA	5.12%
Price vs 200-day SMA	8.91%
Price vs 50-day SMA	4.51%
Relative volume	0.68
RSI	59.5
Sharpe ratio	0.63
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.24
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.22
Sortino ratio	1.18
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.47
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.45
Volume	1.2M
Weekly RSI	56.53
YTD price change	3.38%
YTD total return	3.38%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	177.5M
Float percentage	94.58%
Shares change (QoQ)	-3.29%
Shares change (YoY)	-6.94%
Shares held by insiders	0.13%
Shares held by institutions	100.09%
Shares outstanding	187.6M
Short % of float	4.08%
Short % of shares	3.86%
Short ratio	2.5 days

Deeper analysis on DLTR

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this DLTR report

What is the latest published DLTR stock rating?

Dollar Tree, Inc. is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full DLTR analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-07, lives at /stocks/DLTR/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for DLTR?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-07 gives DLTR a fair value of USD 127 and a potential value of USD 152. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the DLTR page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-07). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldDLTR · Fair value $127+9.6%

Read full analysis →

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)

Our latest published analysis: DLTR rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · DLTR

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All DLTR indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on DLTR

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	6.0
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	3.5
Profitability	7.0
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	5.0
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	7.5