Dow Inc. (DOW)

NYSE: DOW · USD

$34.0

+0.26 (+0.8%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-10

Our latest published analysis: DOW rated Hold

Dow Inc.'s published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$28.4 / share

Potential value

$42.2 / share

Upside to FV

-0.2%

from $34.0

Moat

3.5/10

None

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$20.5B
Revenue (ttm)	42.6B
Net income (ttm)	-905M
EPS (ttm)	-$1.26
Shares out	726.6M
P/E (forward)	14.1x
Dividend	$1.40 (4.11%)
Volume	5,065,127
Beta	0.41

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 42.6B
Net income (ttm): -905M
EPS (ttm): -$1.26
P/E (forward): 14.1x
Market cap: $20.5B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$54.97B	$56.90B	$44.62B	$42.96B	$39.97B	-7.7%
Gross profit	$10.39B	$7.86B	$4.97B	$4.46B	$2.40B	-30.7%
Operating income	$8.83B	$6.74B	$1.39B	$2.36B	$-1.65B	—
Net income	$6.31B	$4.58B	$589.0M	$1.12B	$-2.62B	—
EPS (diluted)	$8.38	$6.28	$0.82	$1.57	$-3.70	—
EBITDA	$11.68B	$9.50B	$4.00B	$5.25B	$1.19B	-43.5%
R&D	$857.0M	$851.0M	$829.0M	$810.0M	$751.0M	-3.2%
SG&A	$1.65B	$1.68B	$1.63B	$1.58B	$1.39B	-4.1%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	ホールド
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	ホールド
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	売り
APD	Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.	68.3B	—	5.4x	8.9%	+5.2%	+23.1%	ホールド
AVY	Avery Dennison Corporation	13.7B	19.8x	1.5x	15.1%	+3.3%	+1.6%	ホールド
BALL	Ball Corporation	16.7B	18.0x	1.2x	8.7%	+2.3%	+28.3%	買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base50%

Price target

$28.37

-0.2% from spot

The base case models an orderly cyclical recovery across global basic materials and packaging markets. Under this path, Packaging and Specialty Plastics volumes rebound steadily while low-cost Gulf Coast ethane integration preserves cash margins over international naphtha-based producers. Consolidated operating margins expand from trough levels toward historical mid-cycle averages over the forecast horizon, while capital expenditure discipline restores positive annual free cash flow conversion. The share price on $28.42 (as of 2026-10-09) trades at $28.42, against our base scenario target of $28.37, delivering an implied return of -0.2% with a scenario likelihood of 50.0%. This trajectory aligns directly with our house Fair value of $28.37 and underwrites our house rating of Hold.

Orderly global polyethylene volume demand recovery in Packaging and Specialty Plastics
Operating margins expand toward mid-cycle levels over the multi-year forecast
Disciplined capital allocation restores self-funded free cash flow and balance sheet stability

Bull25%

Price target

$42.15

+48.3% from spot

The bull case captures an accelerated global petrochemical upswing driven by aggressive competitor capacity rationalization in Europe and Asia alongside robust packaging demand. As global operating rates tighten, commodity polymer price-cost spreads expand rapidly, allowing operating margins to surpass historical mid-cycle benchmarks. Substantial operating leverage accelerates earnings per share and expands owner earnings toward previous cycle peaks. Under this outcome, the valuation advances to our bull scenario target of $42.15, representing a return of 48.3% relative to the share price on $28.42 (as of 2026-10-09) of $28.42, with a scenario likelihood of 25.0%. This upside path underpins our Potential value of $42.15.

Accelerated capacity rationalization across high-cost European and Asian producers
Polyethylene price-cost spreads widen significantly above mid-cycle averages
Rapid operating leverage drives accelerated free cash flow and debt reduction

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($28.37). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
6.5%	$29.0	$29.0	$29.0	$29.0	$29.0
7.0%	$28.7	$28.7	$28.7	$28.7	$28.7
7.5%	$28.4	$28.4	$28.4	$28.4	$28.4
8.0%	$28.1	$28.1	$28.1	$28.1	$28.1
8.5%	$27.8	$27.8	$27.8	$27.8	$27.8

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E14.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E0

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE-3.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC5.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All DOW indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

247

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 247 of 247 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001751788
Company name	Dow Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	260557103
Earnings date	2026-10-22
Earnings time	bmo
Employees	34,600
Employees change	-1,400
Employees growth	-3.89%
Enterprise value	$39.2B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1897
In index	SP500
Industry	Chemicals
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US2605571031
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-03
Last earnings date	2026-10-22
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$24.7B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-28
Options	Yes
Price	$34.04
Price currency	USD
Sector	Materials
SIC code	2821
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	DOW
U.S. state	Michigan
Website	https://www.dow.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	20.38x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	27.06x
Earnings yield	-3.7%
EV/EBIT	21.41x
EV/EBITDA	8.67x
EV/FCF	19.08x
EV/Sales	0.92x
FCF / EV yield	5.24%
FCF yield	8.32%
Forward EV/Sales	0.89x
Forward P/E	16.27x
Forward P/S	0.56x
Industry forward P/E	15.35x
P/B ratio	1.51x
P/FCF ratio	12.02x
P/OCF ratio	5.39x
P/S ratio	0.58x
Price / tangible book value	3.58x
Price/EBITDA ratio	5.46x
Sector forward P/E	15.1x
Sector P/E	22.71x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	4.29%
EBITDA margin	10.6%
FCF margin	4.82%
Gross margin	11.01%
Operating margin	4.29%
Pretax margin	-1%
Profit margin	-2.1%
Profit per employee	$-26,156
Profitable quarters	2
Revenue per employee	$1.2M
ROA	1.87%
ROA (5Y)	3.75%
ROCE	3.7%
ROE	-3.24%
ROE (5Y)	11.9%
ROIC	5.65%
ROIC (5Y)	9.45%
Tax / revenue	0.4%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth (Q)	675%
EPS growth quarters	2
EPS growth years	0
FCF growth (Q)	113.24%
FCF growth 3Y	-10.95%
FCF growth 5Y	-14.82%
Gross profit growth	56.63%
Gross profit growth (Q)	88.51%
Gross profit growth 3Y	-3.21%
Gross profit growth 5Y	-13.82%
Net income growth (Q)	638.71%
Net income growth quarters	2
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	193.02%
OCF growth (Q)	63.09%
OCF growth 3Y	-6.6%
OCF growth 5Y	-5.47%
Operating income growth	147.7%
Operating income growth (Q)	302.11%
Operating income growth 3Y	-12.96%
Operating income growth 5Y	-24.13%
Revenue growth	4.16%
Revenue growth (Q)	12.98%
Revenue growth 3Y	-2.42%
Revenue growth 5Y	-3.65%
Revenue growth quarters	2
Revenue growth years	0

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-2.5B
Depreciation and amortization	$2.7B
EBIT	$1.8B
EBITDA	$4.5B
EPS	$-1.26
FCF per share	$2.82
Financing cash flow	$-2B
Free cash flow	$2.1B
Gross profit	$4.7B
Income taxes	$170M
Investing cash flow	$-3B
Net borrowing	$-720M
Net cash flow	$-603M
Net income	$-905M
Operating income	$1.8B
Revenue	$42.6B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	1.65
Book value per share	$22.31
Debt / EBITDA	3.17
Debt / equity	1.08
Debt / FCF	9.24
Goodwill	$7.9B
Interest coverage	2.13
Long-term assets	$40.8B
Long-term liabilities	$31.8B
Net cash (debt)	$-14.5B
Net cash / market cap	-58.71%
Net debt / EBITDA	3.21
Net debt / equity	0.82
Net debt / FCF	7.06
Piotroski F-Score	6
Property, plant and equipment	$23.7B
Shareholders' equity	$17.6B
Tangible book value	$6.9B
Tangible book value per share	$9.52
Total assets	$61B
Total cash	$4.5B
Total debt	$19B
Total liabilities	$43.3B
WACC	5.23%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.7
Current assets	$20.2B
Current liabilities	$11.5B
Current ratio	1.76
Inventory turnover	5.54
Net working capital	$5.4B
Quick ratio	0.9
Working capital	$8.7B
Working capital turnover	4.68

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-1.96%
Dividend growth	-33.33%
Dividend growth (3Y)	-20.63%
Dividend growth (5Y)	-12.94%
Dividend growth years	0
Dividend payment date	2026-12-11
Dividend payment years	8
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$1.40
Dividend yield	4.11%
Ex-dividend date	2026-11-30
FCF payout ratio	49.57%
Last dividend	$0.35
Shareholder yield	2.18%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
150-day SMA	$32.79
1D price change	0.77%
1M price change	21.49%
1M total return	21.49%
1W price change	12.05%
1W total return	12.05%
1Y price change	32.3%
1Y return CAGR	38.86%
1Y total return	38.83%
20-day SMA	$29.99
200-day SMA	$32.56
3M price change	18.4%
3M total return	19.77%
3Y price change	-29.25%
3Y return CAGR	-5.61%
3Y total return	-15.9%
50-day SMA	$29.82
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$42.74
52-week high date	2026-03-31
52-week low	$20.93
52-week low date	2025-11-20
5Y price change	-39.21%
5Y return CAGR	-4.39%
5Y total return	-20.09%
6M price change	-10.66%
6M total return	-8.7%
All-time high	$71.86
All-time high date	2022-04-21
All-time low	$20.40
All-time low date	2025-08-11
Average true range (ATR)	$0.96
Average volume	8.5M
Beta (1Y)	-1
Beta (2Y)	0.54
Beta (5Y)	0.41
Change from 52-week high	-20.36%
Change from 52-week low	62.64%
Change from all-time high	-52.63%
Change from all-time low	66.85%
Change from open	0.71%
Day's gap	0.06%
Dollar volume	$172.4M
High price	$34.28
Low price	$33.67
Monthly RSI	49.24
Open price	$33.80
Position in 52-week range	60.66%
Premarket change	0.06%
Premarket close	$33.78
Premarket price	$33.80
Premarket volume	5.6K
Previous close	$33.78
Price vs 150-day SMA	3.8%
Price vs 20-day SMA	13.5%
Price vs 200-day SMA	4.55%
Price vs 50-day SMA	14.15%
Relative volume	0.61
RSI	76.85
Sharpe ratio	0.9
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	-0.07
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	-0.12
Sortino ratio	1.56
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.05
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0
Volume	5.1M
Weekly RSI	59.15
YTD price change	45.6%
YTD total return	50.54%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	724.8M
Float percentage	99.76%
Shares change (YoY)	1.96%
Shares held by insiders	0.14%
Shares held by institutions	78.74%
Shares outstanding	726.6M
Short % of float	4.7%
Short % of shares	4.69%
Short ratio	3.8 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	109

Deeper analysis on DOW

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this DOW report

What is the latest published DOW stock rating?

Dow Inc. is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-10. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full DOW analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-10, lives at /stocks/DOW/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for DOW?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-10 gives DOW a fair value of USD 28 and a potential value of USD 42. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the DOW page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-10). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldDOW · Fair value $28.4-0.2%

Read full analysis →

Dow Inc. (DOW)

Our latest published analysis: DOW rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · DOW

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All DOW indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on DOW

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	4.5
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	6.0
Profitability	1.5
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	7.0
Competitive Moat	3.5
Earnings Quality	3.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5