Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

NYSE: ESTC · USD

$106

+0.77 (+0.7%)· Recorded snapshot

英語版にフォールバックJA

翻訳中のため英語版を表示しています

このレポートはまだ翻訳されていません。翻訳キューが追いついたら数分後に更新してください。

StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-22

Our latest published analysis: ESTC rated Reduce

Elastic N.V.'s published Reduce conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$79.9 / share

Potential value

$93.3 / share

Upside to FV

-19.1%

from $106

Moat

7.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$10.4B
Revenue (ttm)	1.8B
Net income (ttm)	375.6M
EPS (ttm)	$3.51
Shares out	105M
P/E (trailing)	30.2x
P/E (forward)	27.4x
Volume	986,851
Beta	1.04

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 1.8B
Net income (ttm): 375.6M
EPS (ttm): $3.51
P/E (trailing): 30.2x
P/E (forward): 27.4x
Market cap: $10.4B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2022-04-30	2023-04-30	2024-04-30	2025-04-30	2026-04-30	Trend
Revenue	$862.4M	$1.07B	$1.27B	$1.48B	$1.74B	+19.2%
Gross profit	$630.2M	$772.4M	$937.2M	$1.10B	$1.32B	+20.4%
Operating income	$-173.7M	$-219.2M	$-129.9M	$-54.9M	$-33.5M	—
Net income	$-203.8M	$-236.2M	$61.7M	$-108.1M	$367.8M	—
EPS (diluted)	$-2.20	$-2.47	$0.59	$-1.04	$3.43	—
EBITDA	$-157.3M	$-171.5M	$-78.6M	$6.1M	$34.7M	—
R&D	$273.8M	$313.5M	$342.0M	$365.8M	$451.9M	+13.4%
SG&A	$123.4M	$143.2M	$160.6M	$175.2M	$194.4M	+12.0%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	売り
ABNB	Airbnb, Inc.	97.8B	37.5x	7.4x	16.8%	+24.4%	+28.5%	売り
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	強い買い
ACN	Accenture plc	144.3B	18.0x	2.0x	27.9%	+8.0%	+0.4%	ホールド
ADI	Analog Devices, Inc.	207.6B	50.9x	14.8x	11.0%	+16.4%	+76.9%	売り
AI	C3.ai, Inc.	2B	—	8.4x	-35.6%	+3.6%	-33.6%	売り

Base and Bull scenarios

Bull20%

Price target

$93.33

-5.5% from spot

Generative AI and agentic application deployments accelerate rapidly, driving massive vector data indexing and log ingestion across enterprise customer tiers. Elastic successfully displaces legacy observability and SIEM vendors, enabling sales-led subscription growth to sustain strong compounding with operating margins expanding significantly.

Annual EPS growth averaging 24.0%
Accelerating enterprise AI adoption driving sustained sales-led subscription growth
Operating margins expanding rapidly through operational leverage by FY2030

Base60%

Price target

$79.91

-19.1% from spot

Elastic executes its guided operating plan, achieving mid-teens revenue growth in FY2027 and expanding non-GAAP operating margin to 19.4%. Long-term margins normalize toward 24.5% as sales capacity matures, yielding the house fair value of $79.91 per share.

Revenue growth scaling from 15.29% in FY2027 to 10.50% in FY2031
Non-GAAP operating margin expanding from 19.4% in FY2027 to 24.5% in FY2031
Terminal P/E multiple of 22.0x and terminal growth of 3.0% with Ke of 9.8002%

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($79.91). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%	3.3%	3.5%
8.8%	$85.5	$86.8	$88.3	$89.8	$91.6
9.3%	$81.5	$82.6	$83.8	$85.1	$86.5
9.8%	$78.0	$78.9	$79.9	$81.0	$82.2
10.3%	$74.8	$75.6	$76.5	$77.4	$78.4
10.8%	$72.0	$72.7	$73.4	$74.2	$75.0

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E27.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E27.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE33.1

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC-5.4

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All ESTC indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

237

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 237 of 237 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001707753
Company name	Elastic N.V.
Country	Netherlands
Country code	US
CUSIP number	N14506104
Earnings date	2026-11-19
Earnings time	amc
Employees	3,834
Employees change	123
Employees growth	3.31%
Enterprise value	$10.3B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-07-31
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	April
Founded	2012
Industry	Software - Application
IPO date	2018-10-05
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	NL0013056914
Last 10-K release date	2026-06-08
Last earnings date	2026-08-27
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$11.2B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-19
Options	Yes
Price	$106.29
Price currency	USD
Sector	Technology
SIC code	7372
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	ESTC
Website	https://www.elastic.co

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	39.66x
Earnings yield	3.31%
EV/Earnings	27.43x
EV/FCF	29.52x
EV/Sales	5.72x
FCF / EV yield	3.39%
FCF yield	3.13%
Forward EV/Sales	4.97x
Forward P/E	30.23x
Forward P/S	5.39x
Graham number	31.23262
Graham upside	-70.64%
Industry forward P/E	19.37x
Industry P/E	71.33x
P/(FCF - SBC) ratio	244.08x
P/(OCF - SBC) ratio	219.92x
P/B ratio	8.55x
P/E ratio	30.25x
P/FCF ratio	32x
P/OCF ratio	31.54x
P/S ratio	6.2x
PEG ratio	1.36x
Price / tangible book value	12.01x
Sector forward P/E	18.38x
Sector P/E	32.76x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	-1.4%
EBITDA margin	-1.24%
FCF margin	19.37%
Gross margin	75.59%
Operating margin	-1.4%
Pretax margin	-1.08%
Profit margin	20.84%
Profit per employee	$97,976
Profitable years	1
Revenue per employee	$470,046
ROA	-0.57%
ROA (5Y)	-4.12%
ROCE	-1.29%
ROE	33.12%
ROE (5Y)	-14.76%
ROIC	-5.45%
SBC / revenue	16.83%
Tax / revenue	-21.93%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth quarters	3
EPS growth years	1
FCF growth	11.16%
FCF growth (Q)	26.14%
FCF growth (QoQ)	-12.28%
FCF growth 3Y	63.17%
FCF growth 5Y	101.9%
Gross profit growth	16.64%
Gross profit growth (Q)	11.78%
Gross profit growth 3Y	18.78%
Gross profit growth 5Y	22.26%
Net income growth quarters	3
Net income growth years	1
OCF growth	11.25%
OCF growth (Q)	25.92%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-13.56%
OCF growth 3Y	62.06%
OCF growth 5Y	89.22%
Revenue growth	16.18%
Revenue growth (Q)	15.13%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	6.09%
Revenue growth 3Y	17.44%
Revenue growth 5Y	21.78%
Revenue growth quarters	33
Revenue growth years	9

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-5M
Depreciation and amortization	$3M
EBIT	$-25.3M
EBITDA	$-22.3M
EPS	$3.51
FCF per share	$3.32
Financing cash flow	$-349.3M
Free cash flow	$349M
Free cash flow minus SBC	$45.8M
Gross profit	$1.4B
Income taxes	$-395.2M
Investing cash flow	$214.6M
Net cash flow	$215.8M
Net income	$375.6M
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$50.8M
Operating income	$-25.3M
Revenue	$1.8B
Stock-based compensation	$303.3M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	3.08
Book value per share	$12.34
Debt / equity	0.46
Debt / FCF	1.71
Goodwill	$356.6M
Interest coverage	-1.01
Long-term assets	$1.1B
Long-term liabilities	$667.9M
Net cash (debt)	$865.3M
Net cash / market cap	7.75%
Net cash growth	-3.88%
Net debt / equity	-0.67
Net debt / FCF	-2.48
Piotroski F-Score	3
Property, plant and equipment	$31.2M
Shareholders' equity	$1.3B
Tangible book value	$929.8M
Tangible book value per share	$8.85
Total assets	$3B
Total cash	$1.5B
Total debt	$595.8M
Total liabilities	$1.7B
WACC	9.62%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.65
Current assets	$1.9B
Current liabilities	$1B
Current ratio	1.81
Net working capital	$-614.9M
Quick ratio	1.64
Working capital	$840.4M
Working capital turnover	1.98

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-2.21%
Dividend yield	0%
Shareholder yield	-2.21%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
150-day SMA	$69.18
1D price change	0.73%
1M price change	19.76%
1M total return	19.76%
1W price change	10.35%
1W total return	10.35%
1Y price change	19%
1Y return CAGR	19.02%
1Y total return	19%
20-day SMA	$97.01
200-day SMA	$66.97
3M price change	72.32%
3M total return	72.32%
3Y price change	39.78%
3Y return CAGR	11.81%
3Y total return	39.78%
50-day SMA	$91.69
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50over200
52-week high	$108.00
52-week high date	2026-08-28
52-week low	$42.05
52-week low date	2026-04-10
5Y price change	-37.42%
5Y return CAGR	-8.95%
5Y total return	-37.42%
6M price change	120.64%
6M total return	120.64%
All-time high	$189.84
All-time high date	2021-11-15
All-time low	$39.01
All-time low date	2020-03-17
Average true range (ATR)	$4.15
Average volume	1.8M
Beta (1Y)	1.8
Beta (2Y)	1.57
Beta (5Y)	1.04
Change from 52-week high	-1.58%
Change from 52-week low	152.77%
Change from all-time high	-44.41%
Change from all-time low	170.52%
Change from open	1.24%
Day's gap	-0.5%
Dollar volume	$104.9M
High price	$107.28
Low price	$104.99
Monthly RSI	59.15
Open price	$104.99
Position in 52-week range	56.77%
Premarket change	-1.05%
Premarket close	$105.52
Premarket price	$104.41
Premarket volume	3.1K
Previous close	$105.52
Price vs 150-day SMA	52.54%
Price vs 20-day SMA	8.78%
Price vs 200-day SMA	57.59%
Price vs 50-day SMA	15.09%
Relative volume	0.54
RSI	66.73
Sharpe ratio	0.52
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.38
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.08
Sortino ratio	0.86
Sortino ratio (3Y)	0.68
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.21
Volume	986.9K
Weekly RSI	67.57
YTD price change	39.89%
YTD total return	39.89%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	90.2M
Float percentage	85.89%
Shares change (QoQ)	-0.64%
Shares change (YoY)	2.21%
Shares held by insiders	8.16%
Shares held by institutions	84.15%
Shares outstanding	105M
Short % of float	5.25%
Short % of shares	4.51%
Short ratio	2.1 days

Deeper analysis on ESTC

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this ESTC report

What is the latest published ESTC stock rating?

Elastic N.V. is shown with Reduce in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-22. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full ESTC analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-22, lives at /stocks/ESTC/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for ESTC?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-22 gives ESTC a fair value of USD 80 and a potential value of USD 93. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the ESTC page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-22). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

ReduceESTC · Fair value $79.9-19.1%

Read full analysis →

Elastic N.V. (ESTC)

Our latest published analysis: ESTC rated Reduce

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · ESTC

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All ESTC indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on ESTC

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	3.0
Management	9.5
Balance Sheet	7.0
Profitability	7.5
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	6.5
Competitive Moat	7.5
Earnings Quality	6.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5