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ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $79.8, high $166, with mid-point at $118.
Stock analysis

ESTC fair value $80–$166

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-10次回更新: 2026-08-10Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Pre-profit
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株価
$52.25
▲ +65.96 (+126.24%)
公正価値
$118
$80–$166
評価
強い買い
confidence 73/100
上昇余地
+126.2%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$100.48
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$5.4B
P/E fwd 18.4
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $118 with high case $166.
  • Implied upside of 126.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 73/100 · Pre-profit.
  • Trades below fair value with a meaningful cushion to the midpoint.
Fair value
$118
Margin of safety
+55.8%
Confidence
73/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$52.25Price
Low $79.75
Mid $118.21
High $165.72

ESTC trades against a final fair-value range of $79.75-$165.72, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • High switching costs in core
    High switching costs in core enterprise search and observability.
  • Growing footprint in generative AI
    Growing footprint in generative AI vector search.
  • Cycle upside
    Generative AI drives massive vector database adoption. Cloud migration and IT consolidation favor platforms offering unified observability and security.

§2 ベアケース

A severe IT spending contraction paired with aggressive discounting by native cloud providers tests Elastic's pricing power. If top-line growth decelerates below 10% before operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA. kicks in, the current 8x EV/RevenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions. multiple will violently compress.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Cloud Provider Commoditization

· Low

Native cloud providers bundle vector search and observability natively at zero marginal cost, destroying top-line growth.

FV impact
Severe

Datadog Consolidation

· Medium

Enterprise IT consolidates entirely on Datadog or Splunk for observability, crowding out Elastic's premium offerings.

FV impact
Moderate

Perpetual Unprofitability

· High

SBC and R&D spend required to compete remain elevated indefinitely, preventing transition to structural profitability.

FV impact
High
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Revenue growth decelerating below 15% YoY.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compressing below 70%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SBC as a percentage of revenue expanding.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Major enterprise logo churn to Datadog or native cloud tools.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Vector search adoption stalling in favor of standalone DBs.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期間2022-04-302023-04-302024-04-302025-04-30Trend
売上高$862.4M$1.07B$1.27B$1.48B+19.8%
売上総利益$630.2M$772.4M$937.2M$1.10B+20.5%
営業利益$-173.7M$-187.9M$-125.0M$-54.7M—
純利益$-203.8M$-236.2M$61.7M$-108.1M—
EPS (希薄化後)$-2.20$-2.47$0.59$-1.04—
EBITDA$-157.3M$-171.5M$-78.6M$6.1M—
研究開発$273.8M$313.5M$342.0M$365.8M+10.1%
販管費$530.1M$646.8M$720.3M$792.4M+14.3%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
6 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
2.35
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-3.02
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
-2.46
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
-0.0%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

ESTC income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of ESTC (ESTC) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

ESTC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ESTC looks meaningfully undervalued. The current price is $52.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $118 (range $79.8–$166), which implies roughly 126.2% upside to the midpoint.

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