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Direct answer
FLEX trades against a final fair-value range of $65.15-$128.29, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $65.2, high $128, with mid-point at $94.8.
Stock analysis

FLEX fair value $65–$128

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-20次回更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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株価
$131.52
▼ -36.74 (-27.93%)
公正価値
$95
$65–$128
評価
売り
confidence 82/100
上昇余地
-27.9%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$80.56
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$48.4B
P/E fwd 19.4
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $95 with high case $128.
  • Implied downside of 27.9% to fair value.
  • Moat 6.5/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$95
Margin of safety
-38.8%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
6.5/10

Educational research only - not investment advice, an offer, or a trade instruction. Confirm current data and do your own due diligence before acting.

$131.52Price
Low $65.15
Mid $94.78
High $128.29

FLEX trades against a final fair-value range of $65.15-$128.29, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Switching costs in complex manufacturing
    Switching costs in complex manufacturing
  • Scale within electronics manufacturing services
    Scale within electronics manufacturing services (EMS)
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerated growth from AI infrastructure and data center demand driving multi-year margin expansion.

§2 ベアケース

Fading the elevated near-term returns over a five-year period to explicitly account for legacy cyclical hardware risks and broader macro volatilityVolatilityVolatility is a price, risk, or intrinsic-value metric used to compare market price with estimated value or historical return behavior. It should be read as one input in a broader valuation range..

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Macro Cyclical Downturn

· Medium

Macroeconomic slowdown and cyclical downturn in consumer devices heavily offset growth in industrial and AI solutions.

FV impact
$65.15
Trigger
12-24 months

Margin Compression

· Low

Severe margin compression from input cost inflation and supply chain disruptions causing operating margins to contract below 5.5%.

FV impact
$80.00
Trigger
6-12 months

AI Demand Fade

· Low

AI infrastructure super-cycle demand fades prematurely before legacy business units can fundamentally recover.

FV impact
$75.00
Trigger
18-36 months
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Next twelve months (NTM) forward EPS revisions trending downward or falling below $6.50.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Operating margins contracting below 5.5% over the next 4 quarters.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant deceleration in data center and cloud infrastructure segment growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Free cash flow conversion dropping below historical baselines (OCF to Net Income < 1.0x).MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increase in inventory days signaling supply chain bottlenecks or demand weakness.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期間2022-03-312023-03-312024-03-312025-03-31Trend
売上高$24.63B$28.50B$26.42B$25.81B+1.6%
売上総利益$1.78B$1.98B$1.87B$2.16B+6.6%
営業利益$890.0M$1.02B$873.0M$1.19B+10.0%
純利益$936.0M$793.0M$1.01B$838.0M-3.6%
EPS (希薄化後)$1.94$1.72$2.28$2.11+2.8%
EBITDA$1.61B$1.54B$1.41B$1.78B+3.3%
研究開発—————
販管費$830.0M$874.0M$922.0M$904.0M+2.9%

品質スコア

OCF / 純利益
1.8×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
10.7%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INTRINSIC VALUE FAQ

FLEX intrinsic value questions

  1. FLEX (FLEX)'s intrinsic value is triangulated from discounted earnings at two cost-of-equity levels (strict CAPM with raw beta, moderate with adjusted beta), with owner earnings used as a floor for high-growth names.

FAQ

FLEX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, FLEX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $132 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $94.8 (range $65.2–$128), which implies roughly 27.9% downside to the midpoint.

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Same archetype: mature-compounder