任意の製品分析
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First Solar's greatest opportunity lies in capturing multi-gigawatt direct procurement contracts from hyperscalers expanding artificial intelligence data center campuses.
Southeast Asian crystalline module dumping evading trade enforcement combined with persistent domestic freight cost inflation.
First Solar is rated Strong Buy, supported by a contracted 45 GW module backlog, proprietary thin-film cost advantages, and strong domestic manufacturing expansion.
The house rating is Strong Buy. For an ordinary investor, this indicates high-conviction risk-adjusted upside potential supported by substantial cash-flow compounding and contractual revenue visibility.
As of the report date, the shares traded at 177.82. This represents an implied upside of 51.75% to the house Fair value of 269.84, with Potential value reaching 333.85 at the top of the valuation range.3
The primary risk that could impair this thesis is potential legislative or regulatory rollback of Section 45X advanced manufacturing production tax credits, compounded by domestic freight and commodity inflation that would compress toward 25.0%. An investor would observe this risk through compression below 30% and backlog de-commitments.
The main driver supporting intrinsic value growth is First Solar's proprietary CdTe thin-film manufacturing platform, which provides an unmatched conversion cost per watt and qualifies 41 GW of its 45 GW backlog for domestic content bonuses. As new manufacturing facilities ramp up in Alabama and South Carolina, high-margin domestic shipments drive projected consensus EPS to $23.16 by FY2027, compounding shareholder value while preserving over $2.6B in net liquidity.1247
First Solar operates fully integrated continuous-line CdTe thin-film manufacturing facilities that bypass polysilicon and ingot-wafer supply chain bottlenecks, yielding an industry-leading conversion cost per watt.4
Proprietary CdTe semiconductor intellectual property and CuRe conversion efficiency enhancements prevent direct replication by crystalline silicon peers, while domestic facility certification allows customers to claim IRA Section 45X and domestic content bonus depreciation.4
The bull cycle is propelled by rising electricity demand from hyperscale artificial intelligence data centers, utility decarbonization mandates, and supportive federal manufacturing policies. Under these conditions, demand for domestic-content eligible modules outpaces supply, allowing Tier-1 domestic producers to command healthy pricing premiums.4
Rated Strong Buy due to unmatched domestic backlog visibility, structural CdTe thin-film cost advantages, and an immaculate net cash balance sheet.
First Solar, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells advanced cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film photovoltaic solar modules that convert sunlight into clean electricity. The company operates as a single business segment, providing utility-scale solar technology across global energy markets.
Its primary customers include large-scale solar project developers, independent power producers, regulated utilities, and commercial and industrial corporate power purchasers. The vast majority of operations and revenues are concentrated in the United States, representing $4,994,679,000 of its $5,219,376,000 total revenue in FY2025.
A compounded downside stress scenario models an operating margin drop to 25.0%, a deceleration in multi-year revenue growth below 5.0%, and a terminal multiple contraction to 9.6x P/E. Under this joint pressure, operating cash flows would compress while capital expenditures on active manufacturing facilities in Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina continue. Even under such severe compression, First Solar's $2,803,514,000 in cash and equivalents against total debt of $194,010,000 provides a substantial net cash buffer that prevents liquidity distress or forced equity dilution.
Severe tariff circumvention by Southeast Asian crystalline manufacturers combined with domestic freight inflation collapses operating margins below 25.0%.4
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Severe tariff circumvention and freight inflation eroding operating profitability.
現在:30.59% in FY2025
警戒条件Below 25.0%
Developers canceling domestic contracts due to financing constraints or seeking foreign modules.
現在:
First Solar maintains a Narrow economic moat grounded in proprietary cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film manufacturing technology and structural domestic supply chain positioning. Unlike standard crystalline silicon module producers exposed to Chinese supply chains and volatile polysilicon costs, First Solar transforms raw glass sheets into completed photovoltaic modules on automated continuous production lines in just hours.
The company's commercial insulation is reinforced by the U.S. regulatory architecture. Approximately 41 GW of First Solar's 45 GW contracted backlog explicitly meets domestic content criteria, qualifying project developers for lucrative federal tax credit adders. These contractual commitments provide multi-year revenue visibility and insulate pricing from global module dumping, underpinning an ROIC of 16.58% that exceeds the firm's 10.80% cost of capital.
First Solar generated a latest ROIC of 16.58%, comfortably exceeding its computed WACC of 10.80%. This positive economic spread of 5.78 percentage points confirms sustainable economic profit creation driven by domestic pricing premiums and disciplined asset utilization.2
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($269.84). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $969.0M after modeled reinvestment of $521.8M, with terminal value at 71.5% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
In the Base scenario, First Solar delivers on its contracted backlog, converting 41 GW of domestic content orders at contracted ASPs. Operating margins remain resilient above 31.0% despite modest freight friction, driving EPS toward $23.16 by FY2027. Under these conditions, the shares compound toward $269.84, delivering an estimated return of 51.7% with a 55.0% probability weighting. Disconfirmation would occur if quarterly shipments fail to meet the 3.9 to 4.5 GW guidance range or if domestic backlog share declines materially from contracted levels.14
A beat driven by higher domestic module deliveries and gross margin expansion confirms operational execution and verifies that CuRe efficiency gains are offsetting freight headwinds.
Performance in line with guidance confirms stable factory utilization in Alabama and Ohio and reaffirms full-year cash flow projections.
A quarterly shortfall caused by contract de-commitments or gross margin deterioration below key operational thresholds would signal erosion in domestic pricing power.
Earnings quality is anchored by strong operating cash generation, with FY2025 operating cash flow of $2,057,105,000 exceeding GAAP net income of $1,528,229,000. Over 95% of revenues are domestically sourced, and contracted bookings require liquid security deposits from counterparties, keeping revenue quality high and bad-debt risk low.478
Consensus earnings estimates have remained steady following Q2 2026 earnings, with FY2026 consensus EPS at $17.47 and FY2027 consensus EPS at $23.16. Management reaffirmed full-year operational targets despite incorporating $60M to $80M in net tariff adjustments.14
Demonstrates whether customers remain committed to domestic-content qualified modules that preserve pricing power and ensure factory asset utilization.
Reduces overall corporate gross margin and indicates when management will resolve international manufacturing allocation.
Operating cash generation remains robust, producing $2,057,105,000 in FY2025 operating cash flow and $1,187,230,000 in free cash flow after deducting $869,875,000 in expansionary capex. Cash conversion is underpinned by high operating margins of 30.59% and mandatory security deposits posted by project counterparties.467
Capital allocation is centered on organic domestic factory capacity expansion funded entirely through internal cash flows. In FY2025, First Solar allocated $869,875,000 to while maintaining $2,803,514,000 in cash and equivalents and carrying just $194,010,000 in total debt. The company avoids shareholder and common dividends, reinvesting fully to capture multi-year domestic manufacturing demand.
ROIC stands at 16.58%, reflecting high capital productivity across operating manufacturing lines. As new domestic capacity in Alabama and South Carolina reaches full utilization, ROIC is poised to improve further toward 20% before stabilizing in steady state.
ROIC of 16.58% generates a substantial 5.78 percentage point spread over the computed WACC of 10.80%, demonstrating significant economic value creation.
Cash and equivalents totaled $2,803,514,000 at FY2025 year-end against $194,010,000 in debt.
Over $2.6B in net cash liquidity shields the business from capital market volatility and funds domestic facility buildouts without leverage.
FY2025 operating income of $1,596,864,000 on of $5,219,376,000 yielded a 30.59% .
| 売上高 | $1,056,193,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $451,189,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $605,004,000 |
| 営業費用 | $154,618,000 |
| 営業利益 | $450,386,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$27,817,000 |
| 純利益 | $422,569,000 |
| 総資産 | $13,321,310,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $2,803,514,000 |
| 流動資産 | $6,028,832,000 |
| 負債合計 | $3,783,317,000 |
| 流動負債 | $2,254,102,000 |
| 株主資本 | $9,537,993,000 |
| 純利益 | $1,528,229,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $2,076,668,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $529,216,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $19,223,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $2,057,105,000 |
| 営業キャッシュ流出 | $19,563,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $3,698,427,000 |
| 期首現金 | $1,638,223,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $3,099,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $765,168,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流出 | $119,228,000 |
| 純有利子負債返済 | $102,893,000 |
| その他の財務活動 | $16,335,000 |
| 期末現金 | $2,814,031,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$765,168,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | -$119,228,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-24 · SEC EDGAR
| 地域別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $49.9億 | 95.7% | 27.9% |
| India | $2億 | 3.7% | -3% |
| Allotherforeigncountries | $2281万 | 0.4% | -65.1% |
| France | $630.3万 | 0.1% | -81.7% |
2026-10-09の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $29億 | -$2.9億 | -$4.2億 | $2.1億 | -$2269.9万 | $2.3億 | $2億 | $2871.2万 | — | $0 | — | $1.4億 | -$1.4億 | — | $14.2億 | $19.6億 | $2億 | -19.6% | — | 8.6% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $29.4億 | $3.4億 | -$1.7億 | $13.4億 | $8.3億 | $5.1億 | $9189.9万 | $3512.1万 | — | $0 | — | -$6.3億 | $1.9億 | $14.2億 | $23.3億 | $29.9億 | $4.1億 | 6.0% | — | 7.6% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $22.4億 | $2.7億 | $1.4億 | -$3.3億 | -$10.7億 | $7.4億 | $1.3億 | $3415.4万 | — | — | — | -$6.8億 | $2.6億 | $23.3億 | $15.6億 | $25.5億 | $4.8億 | 1.8% | — | 6.7% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $30.6億 | $1.1億 | -$1.1億 | $1.7億 | -$4.9億 | $6.7億 | $2.1億 | $3742.9万 | — | — | — | -$3.6億 | $7494.3万 | $15.6億 | $14.5億 | $21.6億 | $4.8億 | -5.3% | — | 5.4% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $27.1億 | $5.5億 | $4億 | $3712万 | -$3.8億 | $4.2億 | $2.3億 | $2926.7万 | — | — | — | -$1.3億 | -$8258.7万 | $14.5億 | $12.7億 | $17.5億 | $2.9億 | 11.7% | — | 5.3% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $29.2億 | $8.5億 | $4.7億 | $2.4億 | -$3億 | $5.4億 | $2.6億 | $2090.2万 | — | — | — | -$9904万 | $4055万 | $12.7億 | $14.6億 | $18.3億 | $2.5億 | 20.1% | — | 6.1% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $26.2億 | $2.9億 | -$4416.6万 | $8.7億 | -$3023.6万 | $9億 | $2.7億 | $2865.6万 | — | — | $3.2億 | -$11.9億 | $3.1億 | $14.6億 | $14.9億 | $25.8億 | $1.9億 | -1.0% | — | 8.4% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $33.2億 | $12.1億 | $8.3億 | $6億 | -$7.8億 | $13.9億 | $3.1億 | $3421.9万 | — | — | $3.7億 | -$4.7億 | $3.4億 | $14.9億 | $19.7億 | $21億 | $6.2億 | 25.8% | — | 8.4% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $42.1億 | $18.7億 | $12.9億 | $12.2億 | -$3.1億 | $15.3億 | $4.2億 | $2810.4万 | — | — | $5264万 | -$15.6億 | $2484.9万 | $19.7億 | $16.4億 | $17.9億 | $7.2億 | 33.2% | — | 9.0% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $52.2億 | $21.5億 | $15.3億 | $20.6億 | $11.9億 | $8.7億 | $5.3億 | $1922.3万 | — | — | -$1億 | -$7.7億 | -$1.2億 | $16.4億 | $28.1億 | $28.6億 | $5億 | 30.6% | — | 8.3% | — |
First Solar Inc. (FSLR) trades at 8.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.4x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.4x compares with a peer median of 19.2x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Enphase Energy Inc., Monolithic Power Systems Inc., Skyworks Solutions Inc. and PTC Inc., as of 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-09.
The solar and technology hardware benchmark exhibits an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 0.09 and capex-to-depreciation ratio of 0.92. In contrast, First Solar's FY2025 capex of $869,875,000 represented 16.67% of its $5,219,376,000 revenue and 1.64x its $529,216,000 depreciation, highlighting an aggressive domestic factory buildout cycle.7
The bull cycle is propelled by rising electricity demand from hyperscale artificial intelligence data centers, utility decarbonization mandates, and supportive federal manufacturing policies. Under these conditions, demand for domestic-content eligible modules outpaces supply, allowing Tier-1 domestic producers to command healthy pricing premiums.
A cyclical downturn in utility-scale solar could be triggered by severe crystalline module circumvention via third-party Asian countries, interconnection queue grid bottlenecks, or high interest rates curbing project financing. In such a scenario, developer counterparties delay off-take agreements, causing industry book-to-bill ratios to drop.
First Solar is uniquely positioned as the preeminent domestic solar manufacturer in the United States, with over 95% of FY2025 sales generated domestically. Its proprietary CdTe continuous manufacturing bypasses crystalline polysilicon supply disruptions, and its multi-year 45 GW backlog insulates it from spot module price cyclicality.48
High conviction is warranted by a 45 GW contracted backlog, pristine net cash balance sheet with over $2.6B in net liquidity, and structural profitability supported by IRA domestic manufacturing incentives.247
Position risk is managed through portfolio weighting discipline (capped at 7%), regular monitoring of quarterly trade policy determinations, and tracking liquid security deposits on new module orders to insulate against utility counterparty delays.
Trading at 8.35x forward P/E with over $2.6B in net cash liquidity, First Solar provides exceptional margin of safety and trades at a 34.1% discount to Fair value.237
Contracted backlog of 45 GW and projected EPS growth from $14.21 in FY2025 to $23.16 in FY2027 offer powerful secular growth driven by data center power demand.147
While First Solar does not pay a common dividend, total enterprise value compounding and strong cash flow generation support substantial long-term capital appreciation.
First Solar represents a premier growth-infrastructure investment, pairing deep technological insulation in thin-film solar modules with a fully booked 45 GW domestic manufacturing pipeline. The company generates robust operating cash flow and holds over $2.6B in net cash liquidity, shielding investors from capital cycle risks.247
With shares trading at a modest 8.35x forward P/E multiple against projected consensus EPS growth of $23.16 in FY2027, the risk-reward profile is asymmetric with 51.75% upside to the house Fair value of 269.84.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
In the Bear scenario, regulatory circumvention by crystalline silicon peers intensifies competition, forcing First Solar to discount module prices while persistent domestic freight costs from Ohio to the West Coast compress operating margins below guided thresholds. Concurrently, utility grid interconnection bottlenecks delay project execution, causing developer counterparties to pause commitments. Investors would recognize this outcome through contracting gross margins and net bookings stagnating across successive quarters.
Strict enforcement of cash or liquid collateral leads developer counterparties to pause bookings, while grid interconnection delays drag 5-year revenue CAGR below 5.0%.4
Legislative dilution or accelerated phase-down of IRA Section 45X advanced manufacturing production tax credits prompts hardware multiple contraction, de-rating forward valuation below 9.6x P/E.34
警戒条件Below 75.0%
Persistent trade disputes stranding Southeast Asian module capacity permanently without alternative export avenues.
現在:$30M per quarter ($120M annualized)
警戒条件Quarterly drag exceeding $40M or asset impairment over $200M
Counterparty liquidity constraints causing developers to pause bookings or cancel off-take agreements.
現在:45 GW total contracted backlog
警戒条件Net annual bookings below 3.0 GW
Freight and commodity float glass escalation compressing delivered module margins.
現在:40.62% in Q2 2026
警戒条件Below 30.0%
| medium |
| 6-18 months |
| Securing long-term fixed domestic procurement agreements and optimizing regional manufacturing clusters in Alabama and South Carolina.4 |
Under the moderate discount rate, $81.75 comes from forecast-period earnings and $257 from the long-term value, totaling $339.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($47.51) plus discounted terminal value ($119) minus signed per current share (-$21.93) equals the $188 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Project revenue, apply a terminal EV/revenue multiple, discount enterprise value, subtract net debt, and divide by diluted shares.
In the Bull scenario, surging artificial intelligence data center electricity demand sparks an aggressive wave of direct utility procurement. Simultaneously, rigorous trade policy enforcement halts Southeast Asian crystalline module dumping, enabling First Solar to capture significant pricing premiums on domestic Series 7 production. Earnings exceed consensus expectations, driving the shares toward $333.85 for an implied return of 87.7% with a 20.0% probability. Disconfirmation would arise if developer bookings stall or if trade exemptions are granted to foreign crystalline manufacturers.4
Directly increases period cost of goods sold and reveals whether domestic manufacturing geographical placement creates persistent cost friction.
Offsets raw material input inflation and widens cost-per-watt advantage over competing silicon technologies.
Ensures backlog durability and prevents project defaults caused by utility grid delays or high interest rates.
| $6.61B |
| $7.18B |
| $7.53B |
| Revenue growth | -3.5% | 17.3% | 12.0% | 8.5% | 5.0% |
| Operating margin | 31.5% | 34.0% | 33.0% | 32.0% | 31.0% |
| Operating income | $1.59B | $2.01B | $2.18B | $2.30B | $2.34B |
| Tax rate | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% |
| NOPAT | $1.49B | $1.87B | $2.01B | $2.07B | $2.06B |
| Reinvestment | $521.76M | $560.16M | $501.98M | $413.33M | $369.98M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 35.0% | 30.0% | 25.0% | 20.0% | 18.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $968.99M | $1.31B | $1.51B | $1.65B | $1.69B |
| Terminal growth | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% |
Contracted backlog stands at 45 GW, with approximately 41 GW specifying domestic content requirements.
Provides high factory utilization visibility through FY2027 and locks in contractual pricing against commodity solar price swings.
| マージン |
|---|
| FSLR | First Solar Inc. | $19.1B | 8.4x | 3.6x | 7.4x | 18.5% | — |
| ENPH | Enphase Energy Inc. | $4.3B | 15.0x | 3.3x | 21.0x | 13.0% | 18.0% |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems Inc. | $70.1B | 40.8x | 21.4x | 68.7x | 22.0% | 31.0% |
| SWKS | Skyworks Solutions Inc. | $18.0B | 13.4x | 4.5x | 13.7x | 5.1% | 8.8% |
| PTC | PTC Inc. | $21.1B | 21.8x | 7.2x | 17.5x | 35.1% | 28.2% |
| Southeast Asian Underutilization Drag | Exceeds $40M in any single fiscal quarter | Demand strategic review of international capital allocation from executive leadership. |
