任意の製品分析
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Accelerated customer migration to recurring cloud software platforms in Intelligent Operating Solutions and sustained Fortive Business System operational improvements expanding consolidated operating margins toward 21.0%, unlocking intrinsic value toward Potential value of USD 60.16.
We rate Fortive Corporation Hold. The stock traded at USD 57.26 on October 9, 2026, representing an 8.06% premium to our Fair value of USD 52.99, leaving an unfavorable risk-reward balance until price aligns with intrinsic value.4
A Hold rating indicates that existing investors should maintain their current position size while new investors wait for a more compelling entry price. Fortive operates high-quality businesses with strong free cash flow, but the equity does not offer an adequate margin of safety at its valuation level on the report date.
The analysis was conducted at a share price of USD 57.26 on October 9, 2026. This level trades 8.06% above our house Fair value of USD 52.99, which translates to a negative 7.46% implied return to fair value. The high end of our valuation range sits at a Potential value of USD 60.16, offering only 5.06% upside from the report-date price if operational catalysts execute ahead of schedule.4
The primary risk to our thesis is an industrial capex curtailment that dampens demand for Intelligent Operating Solutions hardware test tools and connected sensors. Because Intelligent Operating Solutions generated USD 2,856.3 million, or 68.7% of total revenue in FY2025, a 5% drop in segment demand would erode operating leverage, reduce operating profit, and lower earnings per share, pushing equity valuation toward our bear kill-scenario threshold.6
The primary path for value creation lies in expanding higher-margin recurring software subscriptions within Intelligent Operating Solutions, paired with Fortive Business System operational rigor. If connected software adoption accelerates and gross margins remain resilient near 63.50%, consolidated operating margins could expand beyond baseline projections, lifting annual free cash flow above USD 1,000 million and driving equity value toward our Potential value of USD 60.16.5
Proprietary software and mission-critical Fluke instrumentation embed deeply into client operations, supporting gross margins of 63.50% in FY2025.5
Operating cash flow of USD 1,083.2 million in FY2025 delivered a 1.87x conversion of net income, supporting compounding and disciplined capital return.5
High customer switching costs stem from deep integration of Fluke connected instrumentation, calibration protocols, and specialized maintenance management software into daily facility operations and safety compliance.6
We rate Fortive Corporation Hold because the share price of USD 57.26 trades above our Fair value of USD 52.99, requiring an entry price pullback before capital deployment is warranted.4
Fortive Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets professional instrumentation, software solutions, and healthcare sterilization equipment to enterprise customers globally. The company operates through two primary reporting business segments: Intelligent Operating Solutions and Advanced Healthcare Solutions.
Intelligent Operating Solutions provides precision test tools, electrical sensing instruments, and facility maintenance software, while Advanced Healthcare Solutions delivers low-temperature terminal sterilization systems and consumable biological indicators to hospitals and surgical centers. Customer demand across capital equipment and sterilization consumables experiences fourth-quarter seasonal strength and cadence aligned with new product introductions, though overall consolidated operations exhibit minimal seasonal variability.
Under a simultaneous macroeconomic stress test where global manufacturing capex contracts by 5% and interest rates remain elevated, Fortive faces compressed operating margins. Historical precedent demonstrates vulnerability during industrial downturns: consolidated EBIT margins dropped to 9.73% in FY2019 and 11.64% in FY2020. With current liabilities of USD 2,246.6 million against cash of USD 375.5 million as of FY2025, cash generation would be diverted toward debt service (total debt USD 3,206.0 million) rather than accretive share buybacks. If the exit multiple derates to 14.3x in line with Broadridge and cost of capital expands by 200 bps, intrinsic value falls to our lower bound of USD 47.69.
The downside scenario evaluates the impact of an industrial manufacturing capex contraction and deferred equipment replacement cycles across core customer segments. Contraction in discretionary testing tool demand and slower software migrations compress operating margins, while valuation multiples compress toward lower-multiple workflow peers. This risk pathway would be confirmed by consecutive quarters of negative organic revenue growth in Intelligent Operating Solutions.
Intelligent Operating Solutions accounts for USD 2,856.3 million (68.7%) of revenue and USD 738.3 million of operating profit. A 5% contraction in IOS demand caused by automotive and industrial manufacturing capex curtailments would impair operating leverage and reduce consolidated EPS by 15-20%.6
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Signals cyclical industrial curtailment in Fluke hardware and capex deferral across core manufacturing clients.
現在:Mid-single digit growth modeled (FY2025 revenue USD 2,856.3 million)
警戒条件-5.0% YoY or below for two consecutive quarters
Fortive Corporation possesses a narrow economic moat underpinned by high customer switching costs across specialized industrial instrumentation and mission-critical enterprise software, complemented by intangible brand assets and stringent regulatory clearances in healthcare sterilization. These structural barriers insulate Fortive from direct price competition and sustain returns on invested capital above its 9.42% cost of equity.
In Intelligent Operating Solutions, which generated USD 2,856.3 million (68.7%) of FY2025 revenue, Fluke's pervasive installed base of testing and sensing tools forms the operational standard for facility maintenance technicians. Embedding connected sensors and software applications directly into enterprise maintenance operations creates steep switching hurdles, as displacing Fortive requires retraining workforces and reconfiguring facility systems.
In Advanced Healthcare Solutions, Fortive's sterilization franchise benefits from deep regulatory integration. Sterilization systems and proprietary chemical consumable indicators require rigorous healthcare compliance validation, deterring generic substitution in hospital operating rooms and central processing units.
Fortive generated operating income of USD 720.2 million in FY2025 on invested capital of USD 9,659.4 million. Returns comfortably exceed the moderate cost of equity of 9.42% and WACC of 8.76%, supporting value creation across our 10-year stage II competitive fade horizon.25
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($52.99). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
A free-cash-flow drop test is not available in this run; use the discount-rate and terminal-growth grid as the primary valuation pressure test.
The base case projects intrinsic value reaching $52.99 with an assigned probability of 60.0%, offering an implied return of -7.5% relative to $57.26 (as of 2026-10-09). This trajectory assumes steady mid-single-digit organic growth across Intelligent Operating Solutions, continuous Fortive Business System operational improvements expanding operating margins through FY2030, and disciplined share repurchases. Disconfirmation would occur if segment operating margins deteriorate or if industrial capex freezes in North America and EMEA.
An earnings beat driven by accelerating recurring software attach demonstrates strengthening competitive moats and enhanced operating leverage, justifying an upward revision in intrinsic valuation toward $60.16.
Meeting expectations confirms that the business is compounding in line with the base forecast, but does not provide sufficient catalyst to overcome the premium of $57.26 (as of 2026-10-09) over $52.99.
An earnings miss driven by cyclical industrial capex contraction invalidates intermediate margin expansion assumptions and confirms that discretionary hardware exposure outweighs recurring software stability.
Fortive demonstrates robust earnings quality characterized by operating cash flows that substantially exceed reported net income. Cash generation is anchored by non-discretionary software subscriptions, equipment calibration services, and hospital sterilization consumables. The business model maintains minimal capital expenditure requirements, low inventory obsolescence risk, and steady working capital management, confirming that reported earnings reflect genuine underlying cash compounding rather than accounting accruals.
Consensus estimates for FY2026 and FY2027 revenue and diluted earnings per share remained flat following the second-quarter earnings release, reflecting steady operational execution in line with management guidance without material upward or downward revisions across the analyst cohort.
IOS generates the majority of revenue and earnings; sustained organic growth verifies customer demand for connected test instrumentation and field maintenance software, directly driving consolidated operating income.
Fortive's cash flow generation remains exemplary. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached USD 1,083.2 million, representing a 1.87x conversion ratio against reported net income of USD 579.2 million. Capital expenditures were limited to USD 105.1 million, resulting in free cash flow of USD 978.1 million. Historical free cash flow has demonstrated steady durability, recording USD 1,207.4 million in FY2022. Depreciation of USD 437.6 million in FY2025 comfortably exceeds annual maintenance capex, ensuring sustained owner earnings generation.57
Stable return on invested capital above cost of capital confirms that Fortive's software transitions and asset-light operations generate genuine economic profit, justifying a 10-year stage II competitive fade horizon in valuation modeling.
Operating returns on capital consistently exceed the moderate cost of equity of 9.42% and cost of capital WACC of 8.76%, reflecting disciplined Fortive Business System capital stewardship.
FY2025 operating cash flow of USD 1,083.2 million delivered 1.87x conversion of net income (USD 579.2 million), generating USD 978.1 million in after USD 105.1 million in .
| 売上高 | $4,159,100,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $1,518,000,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $2,641,100,000 |
| 営業費用 | $1,920,900,000 |
| 営業利益 | $720,200,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$141,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $579,200,000 |
| 総資産 | $11,737,700,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $375,500,000 |
| 流動資産 | $1,605,700,000 |
| 負債合計 | $5,276,600,000 |
| 流動負債 | $2,246,600,000 |
| 株主資本 | $6,461,100,000 |
| 純利益 | $579,200,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $1,133,600,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $437,600,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $116,800,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $1,083,200,000 |
| 営業キャッシュ流出 | $50,400,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $1,897,500,000 |
| 期首現金 | $813,300,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $1,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $135,400,000 |
| 設備投資 | $105,100,000 |
| その他の投資活動 | $30,300,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流出 | $1,386,600,000 |
| 期末現金 | $375,500,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$135,400,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | -$1,386,600,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
| 事業セグメント別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intelligent Operating Solutions | $28.6億 | 68.7% | 2.3% |
| Advanced Healthcare Solutions | $13億 | 31.3% | 1.2% |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-25 · SEC EDGAR
| 地域別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $24.9億 | 59.9% | 3.1% |
| Asia Pacific | $7.3億 | 17.6% | -0.4% |
| EMEA | $7.3億 | 17.5% | 0.7% |
| Latin America | $2.1億 | 5.1% | 1.1% |
2026-10-11の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $53.8億 | $14.2億 | $8.7億 | $11.4億 | $10.3億 | $1.1億 | $1.6億 | $4070万 | — | $4840万 | — | -$3.1億 | $380万 | — | $8億 | $8億 | $33.6億 | 19.7% | — | 5.8% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $57.6億 | $13.2億 | $10.4億 | $11.8億 | $10.7億 | $1.1億 | $1.6億 | $4420万 | — | $9720万 | — | -$16.7億 | $6億 | $8億 | $9.6億 | $9.6億 | $40.6億 | 19.9% | — | 5.9% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $38億 | $14.4億 | $29.1億 | $13.4億 | $12.7億 | $6990万 | $1.7億 | $4060万 | — | $9660万 | — | -$19.7億 | $8.8億 | $9.6億 | $11.8億 | $11.8億 | $34.3億 | 17.0% | — | 6.4% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $45.6億 | $8.2億 | $7.4億 | $12.7億 | $12億 | $7450万 | $3.4億 | $5250万 | — | $9380万 | — | -$40.5億 | $28億 | $11.8億 | $12.1億 | $12.1億 | $63.3億 | 9.7% | — | 5.9% | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $46.3億 | $20.4億 | $16.1億 | $14.4億 | $13.6億 | $7570万 | $3.8億 | $6260万 | $0 | $9440万 | — | -$1.5億 | -$7億 | $12.1億 | $18.2億 | $29.4億 | $42.3億 | 11.6% | — | 4.6% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $52.5億 | $11.8億 | $6.1億 | $9.6億 | $9.1億 | $5000万 | $4億 | $7740万 | $0 | $9770万 | — | -$26.2億 | $6.5億 | $18.2億 | $8.2億 | $8.2億 | $39.6億 | 15.5% | — | 5.2% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $58.3億 | $14.4億 | $7.6億 | $13億 | $12.1億 | $9580万 | $4.7億 | $9380万 | $4.4億 | $9950万 | -$7.2億 | -$1億 | -$12.7億 | $8.2億 | $7.1億 | $7.1億 | $32.5億 | 16.9% | — | 7.6% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $39.1億 | $11.3億 | $8.7億 | $13.5億 | $12.8億 | $7860万 | $4.3億 | $9450万 | $2.7億 | $1億 | $3.9億 | -$2億 | $3230万 | $7.1億 | $18.9億 | $18.9億 | $36.5億 | 14.7% | — | 7.7% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $40.8億 | $16.7億 | $8.3億 | $15.3億 | $14.4億 | $8610万 | $4.3億 | $9010万 | $8.9億 | $1.1億 | $1.4億 | -$18億 | -$7.9億 | $18.9億 | $8.1億 | $8.1億 | $37.1億 | 17.6% | — | 8.2% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $41.6億 | $12億 | $5.8億 | $10.8億 | $9.8億 | $1.1億 | $4.4億 | $1.2億 | $16.1億 | $9220万 | -$7.1億 | -$1.4億 | -$13.9億 | $8.1億 | $3.8億 | $3.8億 | $32.1億 | 17.3% | — | 8.0% | — |
Fortive Corporation (FTV) trades at 17.3x forward earnings against a peer median of 18.6x. Its EV/EBITDA of 16.4x compares with a peer median of 15.4x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, Keysight Technologies Inc., Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc. and GoDaddy Inc., as of 2026-10-11.
Industry capital benchmarks indicate an ongoing expansionary phase, with industry capex-to-depreciation standing at 1.41 and industry capex-to-revenue at 5.7%. Fortive operates at a substantially more asset-light intensity, with FY2025 capex of USD 105.1 million on revenue of USD 4,159.1 million, generating a 2.53% capex-to-revenue ratio.5
An industrial upcycle driven by accelerated factory automation, semiconductor manufacturing expansions, and stringent workplace safety mandates spurs robust demand for precision test tools, connected monitoring sensors, and hospital sterilization equipment.
A manufacturing slowdown marked by industrial capex deferrals, reduced plant utilization, and hospital capital budgeting constraints dampens instrument replacement cycles and delays enterprise software deployments.
Fortive positions itself as an asset-light, high-gross-margin instrumentation and software provider. By maintaining low capex requirements (2.53% of revenue in FY2025) relative to the 5.7% industry average, Fortive captures premium gross margins (63.50%) and protects cash flow generation across shifting demand phases.5
With a Hold rating and the share price of USD 57.26 on October 9, 2026 trading at an 8.06% premium to our Fair value of USD 52.99, an underweight-to-neutral position size of 2-3% is warranted. Fresh capital deployment should be withheld until market prices retrace to or below Fair value.4
Enforce strict portfolio exposure caps of 3.0% maximum allocation for industrial and test instrumentation compounders. Rebalance capital away from the stock if share price appreciates toward Potential value (USD 60.16) without accompanying organic revenue acceleration, preserving disciplined capital protection.
Fortive's durable competitive position, strong free cash flow conversion of 1.87x net income, and asset-light operations make it an attractive holding, but the share price of USD 57.26 on October 9, 2026 sits 8.06% above our Fair value of USD 52.99, precluding new purchases.45
The stock does not currently offer an adequate margin of safety.
Exposure to cyclical industrial manufacturing capex in Intelligent Operating Solutions (68.7% of FY2025 revenue) and near-term liabilities of USD 2,246.6 million make the stock vulnerable to earnings contraction during macroeconomic softening.56
Fortive Corporation is a high-quality compounder with robust free cash flow conversion and defensive positions in mission-critical niches. However, trading at USD 57.26 on October 9, 2026, the shares sit 8.06% above our Fair value of USD 52.99. We recommend holding existing positions while awaiting a more favorable valuation entry point.4
While Fortive's software transformation and FBS execution provide long-term earnings durability, cyclical industrial sensitivity in hardware test tools limits intermediate upside. Re-entry should be prioritized if price aligns with intrinsic value.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
The terminal multiple assumption of 18.0x sits substantially above direct peer Broadridge at 14.29x forward P/E. If Fortive's moderating revenue growth (3.9% in FY2027) compresses its exit multiple toward Broadridge's level (14.3x), intrinsic equity value falls by 20%.13
The computed cost of equity moderate of 9.4184% underpins the DCF models. A 200 bps increase in discount rates across equity-claim DCF models to 11.42% drives down discounted earnings by 22.7% and multi-stage moat fade by 23.8%.2
Indicates loss of pricing power and discounting pressure against instrumentation and software peers.
現在:63.50% in FY2025
警戒条件Below 61.0%
Reflects European macroeconomic stagnation and Asian trade or export restrictions impairing international diversification.
現在:USD 1,455.9 million (35.0% of FY2025 revenue)
警戒条件Decline of 5.0% YoY or worse
Indicates hospital capital expenditure reductions and failure to pass through input cost inflation in sterilization consumables.
現在:10.64% in FY2025 (USD 138.6 million operating profit on USD 1,302.8 million revenue)
警戒条件Below 9.0%
Overpayment for software acquisitions or failure to realize operational synergies risking non-cash goodwill impairment on the balance sheet (goodwill USD 7,298.3 million).
現在:ROIC exceeds 9.42% cost of equity on invested capital of USD 9,659.4 million
警戒条件ROIC falling below cost of equity of 9.42% on a sustained basis
| medium |
| 6 to 18 months |
| Expanding recurring cloud subscription revenues and non-discretionary calibration and sterilization consumable sales to mitigate hardware volume volatility. |
| International Trade Friction and Export Restrictions | low | 12 to 24 months | Decentralized regional supply chains and broad commercial applicability of standard electronic test instrumentation across non-restricted sectors. |
Under the moderate discount rate, $11.25 comes from forecast-period earnings and $40.10 from the long-term value, totaling $51.35.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
The bull case models upside reaching $60.16 with a probability of 20.0%, generating an implied return of 5.1% from $57.26 (as of 2026-10-09). This outcome requires accelerated conversion of legacy hardware clients into recurring cloud software subscriptions within Intelligent Operating Solutions, accompanied by stronger hospital procedure volumes in healthcare sterilization. Faster margin expansion toward Potential value of $60.16 would be disconfirmed if peer competition limits software pricing power.
Gross margin stability indicates pricing power and resilience against competitive discounting from software and instrumentation peers, preserving operating leverage.
Geographic diversification cushions cyclical industrial swings in North America; regional weakness would reveal broader macroeconomic or trade friction impacts.
Asset-light operations and disciplined working capital management ensure high conversion of net profit into cash flow, funding share repurchases and software acquisitions.
Sterilization consumable sales are tied to hospital surgical procedures rather than capital equipment budgets, providing non-cyclical cash flow support.
| $4.74B |
| $4.94B |
| $5.13B |
| Operating income | $777.65M | $830.84M | $887.20M | $944.24M | $1.00B |
| NOPAT | $739.31M | $789.88M | $843.46M | $897.69M | $951.31M |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $629.90M | $672.97M | $718.63M | $764.83M | $810.52M |
| Revenue growth | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 3.8% |
| Operating margin | 17.8% | 18.3% | 18.7% | 19.1% | 19.5% |
| Tax rate | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Reinvestment rate | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 14.8% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Fortive achieved a 63.50% gross margin in FY2025 (gross profit USD 2,641.1 million on revenue USD 4,159.1 million), outpacing peer Teledyne at 43.34% and the industry average of 26.8%.
Specialized positioning and mission-critical functionality allow Fortive to protect unit pricing despite cost pressures.
Current liabilities stood at USD 2,246.6 million at FY2025 end against cash of USD 375.5 million, alongside total debt of USD 3,206.0 million.
While operational cash generation remains strong, near-term liquidity commitments limit capital deployment aggressiveness if industrial demand softens.
| マージン |
|---|
| FTV | Fortive Corporation | $17.5B | 17.3x | 4.0x | 16.4x | 7.3% | — |
| TDY | Teledyne Technologies Incorporated | $28.4B | 22.9x | 4.5x | 18.7x | 9.2% | 20.2% |
| KEYS | Keysight Technologies Inc. | $65.2B | 27.5x | 9.9x | 37.7x | 20.9% | 25.7% |
| BR | Broadridge Financial Solutions Inc. | $18.7B | 14.3x | 2.5x | 12.1x | 40.9% | 24.6% |
| GDDY | GoDaddy Inc. | $13.2B | 9.5x | 2.6x | 12.0x | 398.2% | 24.7% |
| Re-evaluate competitive moat durability and reduce terminal valuation multiple assumptions. |
| APAC and EMEA Combined Revenue Growth | Decline of 5.0% YoY or worse | Downgrade international revenue expansion projections and increase bear-case probability weight. |
