The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)

Under the base path with 55.0% probability, investment banking activity normalizes, lifting earnings steadily through FY2030, resulting in a target of $655.45 and an expected return of -31.0% from $949.49. For this path to hold, advisory backlog must convert into completed deals while Asset & Wealth Management maintains steady net inflows. Disconfirmation would occur if deal completions stall or operating margins compress.

• Advisory deal completions recover steadily with operating margins expanding toward mid-cycle levels
• Asset & Wealth Management delivers steady fee growth through alternative asset fundraising
• Disciplined capital allocation maintains regulatory compliance while funding modest buybacks