The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG)

NYSE: HIG · USD

$130

-3.47 (-2.6%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-03

Our latest published analysis: HIG rated Buy

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.'s published Buy conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$164 / share

Potential value

$298 / share

Upside to FV

+30.2%

from $130

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$34.1B
Revenue (ttm)	29.6B
Net income (ttm)	4.6B
EPS (ttm)	$16.5
Shares out	267.4M
P/E (trailing)	7.9x
P/E (forward)	9.2x
Dividend	$2.68 (2.06%)
Volume	2,400,079
Beta	0.49

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 29.6B
Net income (ttm): 4.6B
EPS (ttm): $16.5
P/E (trailing): 7.9x
P/E (forward): 9.2x
Market cap: $34.1B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$1.57B	$1.42B	$1.38B	$1.46B	$1.51B	-1.0%
Gross profit	$2.47B	$2.05B	$3.17B	$3.97B	$13.02B	+51.5%
Operating income	$2.91B	$2.26B	$3.09B	$3.85B	$4.96B	+14.3%
Net income	$2.37B	$1.82B	$2.50B	$3.11B	$3.84B	+12.8%
EPS (diluted)	$6.64	$5.46	$7.97	$10.35	$13.32	+19.0%
EBITDA	$3.59B	$2.89B	$3.60B	$4.21B	$5.36B	+10.6%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$4.79B	$4.84B	$4.88B	$5.26B	$5.58B	+3.9%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
ACGL	Arch Capital Group Ltd.	34.8B	8.3x	1.8x	15.9%	+15.1%	+18.7%	強い買い
AIG	American International Group Inc.	41.7B	14.7x	1.6x	7.7%	-9.6%	+2.8%	強い買い
AIZ	Assurant, Inc.	14.1B	13.6x	1.0x	14.4%	+6.6%	+36.2%	ホールド
AJG	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	66.7B	43.2x	4.4x	6.6%	+15.3%	-5.7%	買い
ALL	The Allstate Corporation	63.2B	5.0x	0.9x	32.6%	+8.5%	+31.8%	強い買い
AMP	Ameriprise Financial, Inc.	43.1B	11.8x	2.2x	43.0%	+8.9%	+1.1%	買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$164.10

+30.2% from spot

The modal path reflects steady commercial underwriting execution, with small commercial pricing remaining disciplined while middle market pricing tracks loss inflation. Employee benefits continues to deliver stable cash returns near its long-term target margin, and personal lines heads toward gradual recovery through expanded agency distribution. Intrinsic value converges toward $164.10 with an estimated probability of 55.0% and an implied return of 30.2%.

Commercial business insurance maintains renewal pricing discipline in line with loss-cost inflation.
Employee benefits net margins remain consistent with long-term target expectations.
Personal insurance headwind is bounded as new agency product rollouts progress across targeted states.
Share repurchases continue steadily utilizing organic capital generation and divestiture cash proceeds.

Bull20%

Price target

$297.95

+136.4% from spot

Under the upside scenario, commercial lines renewal pricing accelerates further above loss-cost trends, allowing middle and large commercial accounts to expand underwriting profitability while personal auto rate filings successfully restore personal lines margins. Reinvestment yields on fixed maturities expand net investment income, propelling earnings to the bull target of $297.95 with an estimated probability of 20.0% and an implied return of 136.4%.

Commercial business insurance renewal pricing exceeds loss trends across small, middle, and specialty lines.
Personal auto rate filings achieve regulatory approval, returning personal lines combined ratios to underwriting profitability.
Elevated fixed income yields expand net investment income across the general account investment portfolio.
Hartford Funds divestiture proceeds fully fund accelerated share count reduction under the authorized buyback program.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($164.10). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	3.0%
6.5%	$176	$181	$186	$192	$199
7.0%	$166	$170	$174	$178	$183
7.5%	$158	$161	$164	$168	$172
8.0%	$151	$153	$156	$159	$162
8.5%	$145	$147	$149	$152	$154

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E9.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E8.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE23.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC19

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All HIG indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

270

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 270 of 270 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000874766
Company name	The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	416515104
Earnings date	2026-10-26
Earnings time	amc
Employees	19,200
Employees change	100
Employees growth	0.52%
Enterprise value	$39B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1810
In index	SP500
Industry	Insurance - Diversified
IPO date	1995-12-20
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US4165151048
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-20
Last earnings date	2026-10-26
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	1998-07-16
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$34.8B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-28
Options	Yes
Price	$130.04
Price currency	USD
Sector	Financials
SIC code	6331
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	HIG
U.S. state	Connecticut
Website	https://www.thehartford.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	9.24x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	12.17x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	10.13x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	10.36x
Earnings yield	12.69%
EV/Earnings	8.55x
EV/EBIT	6.97x
EV/EBITDA	6.58x
EV/FCF	5.64x
EV/Sales	1.33x
FCF / EV yield	17.72%
FCF yield	19.87%
Forward EV/Sales	1.29x
Forward P/E	9.7x
Forward P/S	1.15x
Graham number	160.17507
Graham upside	22.5%
Industry forward P/E	20.52x
Industry P/E	13.27x
Lynch fair value	$269.72
Lynch upside	106.29%
P/B ratio	1.93x
P/E ratio	7.88x
P/FCF ratio	5.03x
P/OCF ratio	5x
P/S ratio	1.18x
PEG ratio	2.73x
Price / tangible book value	2.13x
Price/EBITDA ratio	5.87x
Sector forward P/E	13.61x
Sector P/E	15.65x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	19.01%
EBITDA margin	20.13%
Effective tax rate	20%
FCF margin	23.48%
Gross margin	38.57%
Operating margin	19.01%
Pretax margin	18.33%
Profit margin	15.57%
Profit per employee	$238,906
Profitable quarters	35
Profitable years	8
Revenue per employee	$1.5M
ROA	4.08%
ROA (5Y)	2.87%
ROCE	7.39%
ROE	23.25%
ROE (5Y)	16.62%
ROIC	19.04%
ROIC (5Y)	13.79%
Tax / revenue	3.67%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	35.01%
EPS growth (Q)	28.04%
EPS growth (QoQ)	3.04%
EPS growth 10Y	16.89%
EPS growth 3Y	31.23%
EPS growth 5Y	22.4%
EPS growth quarters	6
EPS growth years	3
FCF growth	17.93%
FCF growth (Q)	64.58%
FCF growth (QoQ)	141.89%
FCF growth 3Y	26%
FCF growth 5Y	11.8%
Net income growth	29.51%
Net income growth (Q)	22.5%
Net income growth (QoQ)	1.86%
Net income growth 3Y	25.8%
Net income growth 5Y	16.34%
Net income growth quarters	6
Net income growth years	3
OCF growth	16.78%
OCF growth (Q)	60.56%
OCF growth (QoQ)	148.19%
OCF growth 10Y	12.46%
OCF growth 3Y	23.9%
OCF growth 5Y	11.24%
Revenue growth	9.19%
Revenue growth (Q)	3.9%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-0.61%
Revenue growth 10Y	4.94%
Revenue growth 3Y	6.97%
Revenue growth 5Y	6.24%
Revenue growth quarters	16
Revenue growth years	3

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-46M
EBIT	$5.6B
EBITDA	$6B
EPS	$16.50
FCF per share	$25.98
Financing cash flow	$-2.5B
Free cash flow	$6.9B
Gross profit	$11.4B
Income taxes	$1.1B
Investing cash flow	$-4.5B
Net cash flow	$-17M
Net income	$4.6B
Operating income	$5.6B
Revenue	$29.6B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Book value per share	$69.09
Debt / EBITDA	0.73
Debt / equity	0.23
Debt / FCF	0.63
Goodwill	$1.6B
Interest coverage	27.99
Net cash (debt)	$-4.2B
Net cash / market cap	-12.15%
Net debt / EBITDA	0.71
Net debt / equity	0.23
Net debt / FCF	0.61
Piotroski F-Score	5
Property, plant and equipment	$864M
Shareholders' equity	$18.9B
Tangible book value	$16.4B
Tangible book value per share	$61.10
Total assets	$87.1B
Total cash	$4.5B
Total debt	$4.4B
Total liabilities	$68.3B
WACC	6.59%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.34
Current ratio	1.67
Net working capital	$7.2B
Quick ratio	1.02
Working capital	$7.4B

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	3.95%
Dividend growth	14.35%
Dividend growth (10Y)	11.13%
Dividend growth (3Y)	12.28%
Dividend growth (5Y)	11.47%
Dividend growth years	13
Dividend payment date	2027-01-05
Dividend payment years	31
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$2.68
Dividend yield	2.06%
Ex-dividend date	2026-12-01
FCF payout ratio	10.32%
Last dividend	$0.67
Payout ratio	16.24%
Shareholder yield	6%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	201.64%
10Y return CAGR	14.08%
10Y total return	273.33%
150-day SMA	$134.97
15Y price change	541.52%
15Y return CAGR	15.53%
15Y total return	772.2%
1D price change	-2.6%
1M price change	4.67%
1M total return	4.67%
1W price change	-4.26%
1W total return	-4.26%
1Y price change	4.05%
1Y return CAGR	5.92%
1Y total return	5.92%
20-day SMA	$131.69
200-day SMA	$135.39
20Y price change	49.04%
20Y return CAGR	4.29%
20Y total return	131.44%
3M price change	-7.21%
3M total return	-6.8%
3Y price change	84.68%
3Y return CAGR	24.91%
3Y total return	94.93%
50-day SMA	$133.15
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$146.07
52-week high date	2026-07-30
52-week low	$120.33
52-week low date	2025-10-28
5Y price change	78.6%
5Y return CAGR	14.56%
5Y total return	97.29%
6M price change	-4.88%
6M total return	-4.01%
All-time high	$146.07
All-time high date	2026-07-30
All-time low	$3.33
All-time low date	2009-03-06
Average true range (ATR)	$2.64
Average volume	1.7M
Beta (1Y)	-0.13
Beta (2Y)	0.36
Beta (5Y)	0.49
Change from 52-week high	-10.97%
Change from 52-week low	8.07%
Change from all-time high	-10.97%
Change from all-time low	3,804.95%
Change from open	-2.4%
Day's gap	-0.21%
Dollar volume	$312.1M
High price	$133.39
Low price	$129.77
Monthly RSI	53.66
Open price	$133.23
Position in 52-week range	7.32%
Premarket change	0.14%
Premarket close	$133.51
Premarket price	$133.70
Premarket volume	208
Previous close	$133.51
Price vs 150-day SMA	-3.66%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-1.26%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-3.95%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-2.34%
Relative volume	1.44
RSI	43.81
Sharpe ratio	0.19
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	1.02
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.54
Sortino ratio	0.57
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.76
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.03
Volume	2.4M
Weekly RSI	45.41
YTD price change	-5.63%
YTD total return	-4.36%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	269.6M
Float percentage	100.81%
Shares change (QoQ)	-1.16%
Shares change (YoY)	-3.95%
Shares held by insiders	0.33%
Shares held by institutions	96.31%
Shares outstanding	267.4M
Short % of float	1.46%
Short % of shares	1.47%
Short ratio	2.3 days

Deeper analysis on HIG

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this HIG report

What is the latest published HIG stock rating?

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. is shown with Buy in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full HIG analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-03, lives at /stocks/HIG/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for HIG?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-03 gives HIG a fair value of USD 164 and a potential value of USD 298. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the HIG page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-03). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

BuyHIG · Fair value $164+30.2%

Read full analysis →

The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. (HIG)

Our latest published analysis: HIG rated Buy

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · HIG

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All HIG indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on HIG

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	7.5
Management	8.5
Balance Sheet	8.0
Profitability	6.5
Revenue Growth	6.0
Risk Assessment	8.5
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	6.5