任意の製品分析
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Foodservice institutional expansion ($3,941.8M in FY2025 revenue) combined with protein input cost deflation expands consolidated operating margins toward 8.95%, unlocking Potential value of $38.24.
Trailing twelve-month consolidated operating margin falling below 5.5%.
We rate Hormel Foods Corporation as Buy. The shares trade at an attractive discount to their intrinsic value, offering 14.35% upside to Fair value as institutional foodservice demand and protein supply chains normalize.
The house rating is Buy. For an ordinary investor, this recommendation indicates an attractive entry point where long-term cash flow prospects exceed the price paid.
The report was prepared at a price of $20.83 on 2026-09-18. This price sits below our Fair value of $23.82, representing 14.35% upside, with long-term Potential value reaching $38.24 if operating profitability recovers fully.
The primary risk to this thesis is customer pricing pressure at Walmart, which represents 15.6% of net sales. If private-label store brands force further price cuts, consolidated operating margin could fall below 5.5%, reducing free cash flow below $500M and straining annual dividend coverage.456
The primary driver of recovery is the Foodservice business, which generated $3,941.8M in revenue and supported $845.3M in operating cash flow in FY2025. As restaurant traffic stabilizes and protein costs moderate, operating margins should rebound toward 8.5%, increasing cash generation and lifting shareholder value.56
At $20.83 on 2026-09-18, the stock trades at a 14.35% discount to our Fair value of $23.82, providing a solid margin of safety for a defensive dividend payer.3
The Foodservice segment contributed $3,941.8M in FY2025 revenue and supported $845.3M in operating cash flow, serving as an engine of volume growth.56
Core shelf-stable and refrigerated franchises preserve grocery shelf space, allowing consolidated operating margins to normalize from the 5.94% trough toward 8.5%.56
We rate Hormel Foods Corporation a Buy because the shares trade at a 14.35% discount to Fair value while durable brands and institutional foodservice cash flow support multi-year operating margin recovery.
The Company develops, processes, and distributes a wide array of food products in a variety of markets and manufactures its products through various processing facilities and trusted co-manufacturers. The Company’s products primarily consist of meat, nuts, and other food products sold across multiple distribution channels, such as U.S. retail, U.S. foodservice, and internationally.
All operating segments compete on the basis of price, product quality and attributes, brand identification, breadth of product line, and customer service. To grow and maintain its competitive position, the Company focuses on meeting customer and consumer preferences, delivering product innovation, and maintaining long-term and lasting relationships with industry partners.
A severe simultaneous stress event where Walmart forces deeper promotional allowances, feed costs escalate, and grocery center-store volumes contract would depress consolidated operating margin below 5.5%. Under this severe downside scenario, free cash flow would drop beneath $500M, impairing dividend distribution coverage and inducing a multiple derating toward Campbell Soup's 1.356x enterprise value to revenue multiple.
Downside risks materialize if aggressive private label displacement and pricing concessions at Walmart combine with turkey supply disruptions to compress operating profit below cyclical trough levels. This would strain free cash flow coverage of the dividend. Disconfirmation of downside risk would occur if retail margins rebound swiftly in upcoming quarterly reports.
Walmart accounts for 15.6% of net sales and retail revenue is $7,455.2M. Consolidated operating income of $718.6M was 5.94% of revenue in FY2025; margin compression below 5.5% invalidates the 8.5% recovery thesis.56
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Inability to sustain margins above this level proves that retail pricing concessions and elevated input costs are structural rather than cyclical, invalidating the projected operating recovery and eroding operating profit needed for capital reinvestment.
現在:5.94% in FY2025
警戒条件Sustained below 5.50% over any trailing twelve-month period
Hormel maintains a narrow economic moat anchored by recognizable packaged protein brands and extensive temperature-controlled retail and foodservice distribution. Core grocery franchises such as SPAM and Skippy drive consistent center-store foot traffic, enabling defensive category shelf placement despite grocery retailer consolidation.
Return on invested capital of 5.97% trailed the 6.36% cost of capital in FY2025 due to cyclical protein cost inflation and turkey supply disruptions. However, normalized brand pricing power and institutional foodservice recovery support long-term economic profit stabilization.
FY2025 return on invested capital of 5.97% fell 39 bps below the computed WACC of 6.36% due to trough operating profitability. Economic profit is projected to turn positive as operating margin recovers toward 8.5%.15
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($23.82). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $532.5M after modeled capex of $281.2M, with terminal value at 69.0% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
Gradual operating margin normalization from FY2025 trough toward historical levels supports dividend stability and steady cash flow expansion, delivering target $23.82 with probability 60.0% and return 14.4%. Disconfirmation would occur by FY2026 if operating margin fails to rebound or free cash flow remains below dividend payouts.
Foodservice expansion accelerates alongside input cost deflation across turkey and pork, lifting gross margins and driving recovery beyond historical baselines. This path reaches target $38.24 with probability 20.0% and return 83.6%. Disconfirmation would appear by FY2026 if wholesale protein costs spike again or restaurant foot traffic stalls.
Accelerating profitability confirms that branded pricing realization and cost normalization are ahead of expectations, speeding progress toward Potential value $38.24.
Steady execution keeps the business tracking toward Fair value $23.82 with upside of 14.4% from the analysis price $20.83.
Further margin deterioration weakens cash dividend coverage and delays progress toward Fair value $23.82.
Operating cash conversion remains structurally sound as cash from operations substantially exceeds reported net income, driven by working capital discipline and depreciation add-backs. Long-term cash flow quality relies on rebuilding core operating profit rather than working capital fluctuations.
Operating margin recovery is essential to lift earning power toward Fair value $23.82.
Operating cash flow of $845.3M funded $310.9M in capital expenditures in FY2025, generating $534.3M in free cash flow. Because dividend distributions totaled $633.2M, the cash deficit required balance sheet cash usage while total debt stood at $2,857.4M.345
Management prioritizes capital expenditures of $310.9M to sustain manufacturing efficiency alongside $633.2M in annual dividend payments, while share buybacks remain paused to maintain balance sheet flexibility.
ROIC of 5.97% trailed WACC of 6.36% in FY2025 due to cyclical margin compression, but is positioned to rebound above the cost of capital as operating margin normalizes toward 8.5%.
FY2025 return on invested capital of 5.97% sits 39 bps below the computed WACC of 6.36%.
Foodservice sales reached $3,941.8M in FY2025, generating 32.6% of company revenue and supporting $845.3M in operating cash flow.
Institutional dining demand provides higher margin realization that cushions grocery retail stagnation.
| 売上高 | $12,106,160,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $10,214,344,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $1,891,816,000 |
| 営業費用 | $1,173,213,000 |
| 営業利益 | $718,603,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$240,406,000 |
| 純利益 | $478,197,000 |
| 総資産 | $13,393,119,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $670,679,000 |
| 流動資産 | $3,405,656,000 |
| 負債合計 | $5,477,304,000 |
| 流動負債 | $1,380,796,000 |
| 株主資本 | $7,915,815,000 |
| 純利益 | $478,197,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $845,251,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $263,901,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $25,602,000 |
| その他の営業調整 | $77,551,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $845,251,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $1,587,132,000 |
| 期首現金 | $741,881,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $298,592,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流出 | $613,996,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $3,866,000 |
| 期末現金 | $670,679,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$298,592,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | -$613,996,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2025-12-05 · SEC EDGAR
| 事業セグメント別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | $74.6億 | 61.6% | 1.1% |
| Foodservice | $39.4億 | 32.6% | 2.5% |
| International | $7.1億 | 5.9% | 1.1% |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2025-12-05 · SEC EDGAR
| 地域別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $114.4億 | 94.5% | 1.4% |
| Non Us | $6.7億 | 5.5% | 5.1% |
2026-09-20の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-10-30 | $95.2億 | $14.6億 | $8.9億 | $10.4億 | $7.8億 | $2.6億 | $1.3億 | $1782.9万 | $8788.5万 | $3億 | — | -$4.1億 | -$5.6億 | — | $4.2億 | $4.2億 | $13億 | 13.9% | — | 4.2% | — |
| 2017-10-29 | $91.7億 | $14.2億 | $8.5億 | $10.3億 | $8.1億 | $2.2億 | $1.3億 | $1559.1万 | $9448.7万 | $3.5億 | — | -$5.9億 | -$4.2億 | $4.2億 | $4.4億 | $4.4億 | $2.5億 | 13.9% | — | 4.8% | — |
| 2018-10-28 | $95.5億 | $13.7億 | $10.1億 | $12.4億 | $8.5億 | $3.9億 | $1.6億 | $2059.5万 | $4689.8万 | $3.9億 | — | -$12.4億 | $1163.8万 | $4.4億 | $4.6億 | $4.6億 | $6.2億 | 12.4% | — | 4.8% | — |
| 2019-10-27 | $95億 | $13.9億 | $9.8億 | $9.2億 | $6.3億 | $2.9億 | $1.7億 | $1970.7万 | $1.7億 | $4.4億 | — | $2.2億 | -$9.3億 | $4.6億 | $6.7億 | $6.9億 | $2.5億 | 12.6% | — | 3.2% | — |
| 2020-10-25 | $96.1億 | $13.4億 | $9.1億 | $11.3億 | $7.6億 | $3.7億 | $2.1億 | $2245.8万 | $1236万 | $4.9億 | — | -$6.6億 | $5.7億 | $6.7億 | $17.1億 | $17.3億 | $13億 | 11.5% | — | 1.8% | — |
| 2021-10-31 | $113.9億 | $13.8億 | $9.1億 | $10億 | $7.7億 | $2.3億 | $2.1億 | $2474.4万 | $1995.8万 | $5.2億 | — | -$36.3億 | $15.2億 | $17.1億 | $6.1億 | $6.3億 | $33.2億 | 9.9% | — | 2.3% | — |
| 2022-10-30 | $124.6億 | $15.8億 | $10億 | $11.3億 | $8.6億 | $2.8億 | $2.4億 | $2494.3万 | $0 | $5.6億 | -$867.3万 | -$2.6億 | -$4.9億 | $6.1億 | $9.8億 | $10億 | $33億 | 10.5% | — | 4.9% | — |
| 2023-10-29 | $121.1億 | $13.4億 | $7.9億 | $10.5億 | $7.8億 | $2.7億 | $2.5億 | $2407.7万 | $1230.3万 | $5.9億 | -$684.7万 | -$6.9億 | -$6億 | $9.8億 | $7.4億 | $7.5億 | $33.1億 | 8.9% | — | 5.8% | — |
| 2024-10-27 | $119.2億 | $13.7億 | $8.1億 | $12.7億 | $10.1億 | $2.6億 | $2.6億 | $2323.3万 | $0 | $6.1億 | -$4.6億 | -$2.4億 | -$10.3億 | $7.4億 | $7.4億 | $7.7億 | $28.6億 | 9.0% | — | 5.1% | — |
| 2025-10-26 | $121.1億 | $10.1億 | $4.8億 | $8.5億 | $5.3億 | $3.1億 | $2.6億 | $2560.2万 | $0 | $6.3億 | -$783万 | -$3億 | -$6.1億 | $7.4億 | $6.7億 | $7億 | $28.6億 | 5.9% | — | 4.9% | — |
Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL) trades at 13.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 13.0x. Its EV/EBITDA of 10.6x compares with a peer median of 10.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: McCormick & Company Incorporated, Brown-Forman Corporation Class B, Campbell Soup Company and The J.M. Smucker Company, as of 2026-09-20.
Packaged food industry capex-to-revenue stands at 2.3% and capex-to-depreciation is 1.34, while Hormel's operating margin reached a cyclical low of 5.94% in FY2025.5
Moderating feed costs and commercial foodservice recovery lift industry operating profitability toward the peer benchmark of 10.8%.
Elevated animal feed costs and intensified private-label grocery promotions restrict pricing realization across packaged protein categories.
Hormel maintains defensive grocery scale and leading foodservice presence, but customer concentration with Walmart requires ongoing trade promotion investments to preserve volume share.6
A 3-4% allocation reflects Hormel's defensive staple profile, durable brand franchises, and five-decade dividend track record, balanced against retail channel concentration and input cost volatility.
Cap position weight at 4% of total equity portfolio, deploy purchases systematically on dips below $21.00, and monitor Walmart sales concentration alongside quarterly free cash flow generation.
A five-decade dividend growth record supported by $845.3M in operating cash flow provides steady distributions as operating margin normalizes toward 8.5%.5
Purchasing at $20.83 on 2026-09-18 captures 14.35% upside to Fair value of $23.82, with further participation toward Potential value of $38.24 as margins recover.3
Essential branded protein franchises provide demand stability across economic cycles, supporting gradual accumulation at valuations prevailing on the report date.6
We recommend a Buy on Hormel Foods Corporation at $20.83 on 2026-09-18 with a Fair value of $23.82.3
Durable retail brand equity and $845.3M in operating cash flow provide an attractive 14.35% upside to intrinsic value.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Free cash flow was $534.3M in FY2025 against $633.2M in dividends paid, with capex of $310.9M and total debt of $2,857.4M. FCF falling below $500M forces a dividend freeze and peer multiple discount.345
Consolidated FY2025 revenue of $12,106.2M reflects low volume expansion, while peer CPB contracted -7.9%. Top-line contraction of 2% would severely impair FCFF cash generation.3
Free cash flow falling beneath this floor leaves cash generation insufficient to cover annual dividend payments, forcing the company to draw on debt facilities, increase leverage, and halt five decades of uninterrupted annual dividend payout increases.
現在:$534.3M in FY2025
警戒条件Drops below $500.0M over a fiscal year
Expanding sales concentration paired with shrinking retail operating profit indicates Hormel is yielding pricing leverage to its largest buyer, converting brand equity into volume concessions and permanently degrading retail unit economics.
現在:15.6% of net sales in FY2025
警戒条件Increases above 16.5% alongside retail margin contraction
A contraction in institutional dining sales breaks the primary engine of volume growth and incremental operating margin expansion, removing the operational buffer needed to offset mature grocery store trade-down and stagnation.
現在:$3,941.8M in FY2025
警戒条件Contracts below $3,800.0M in FY2026
Gross margin compression below this boundary reveals that commodity protein inflation across turkey and pork cannot be passed through into wholesale or retail prices, undermining net earnings and weakening competitive standing against packaged peers.
現在:15.63% in FY2025
警戒条件Drops below 14.50% in FY2026
| medium |
| 6 to 18 months |
| Upstream hedging agreements, diversified geographic livestock rearing, and flexible retail pass-through pricing formulas.5 |
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Limitation: Terminal value is 69% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Value each distinct segment, subtract corporate overhead and net debt, add probability-weighted optionality, and divide by diluted shares.
Discount the explicit dividend path and its Gordon-growth terminal value at cost of equity.
Limitation: Terminal value is 81.6% of this model's value, above the 60% level at which the methodology flags concentration; the value leans on the years beyond the explicit forecast.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
Cash flow must exceed dividend distributions to prevent debt increases.
Heavy concentration with one buyer limits pricing power on packaged meats.
Institutional dining volume provides higher margins to counter grocery center-store softness.
Deflation in raw feed and poultry costs enables gross profit expansion without retail friction.
| $12.66B |
| $12.97B |
| $13.29B |
| Operating income | $1.03B | $1.05B | $1.08B | $1.10B | $1.13B |
| NOPAT | $791.84M | $806.02M | $823.75M | $843.52M | $864.61M |
| Residual cash after reinvestment policy | $791.84M | $806.02M | $823.75M | $843.52M | $864.61M |
| Revenue growth | 0.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| Tax rate | 23.5% | 23.5% | 23.5% | 23.5% | 23.5% |
| Reinvestment rate | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Terminal growth | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% |
Consolidated operating income of $718.6M represented a 5.94% operating margin in FY2025, down from 8.96% in FY2024.
Rebuilding operating margin toward 8.5% expands free cash flow back above annual dividend payments of $633.2M.
| マージン |
|---|
| HRL | Hormel Foods Corporation | $11.5B | 13.4x | 0.9x | 10.6x | 4.3% | — |
| MKC | McCormick & Company Incorporated | $13.1B | 14.8x | 1.8x | 12.6x | 24.7% | 17.4% |
| BF.B | Brown-Forman Corporation Class B | $11.9B | 15.1x | 3.0x | 11.8x | 18.1% | 27.6% |
| CPB | Campbell Soup Company | $6.2B | 11.3x | 0.6x | 8.1x | 10.1% | 10.3% |
| SJM | The J.M. Smucker Company | $13.1B | 11.3x | 1.4x | 8.8x | 3.9% | 17.9% |
| Foodservice Annual Revenue | Below $3,800M in FY2026 | Reassess institutional channel growth trajectory and reduce position target weight.6 |
