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Direct answer
IDXX trades against a final fair-value range of $231.99-$439.23, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $232, high $439, with mid-point at $335.
Stock analysis

IDXX IDXX fair value $232–$439

IDXX
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-13次回更新: 2026-08-13Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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株価
$533.92
▼ -198.84 (-37.24%)
公正価値
$335
$232–$439
評価
売り
confidence 79/100
上昇余地
-37.2%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$284.82
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$42.1B
P/E fwd 32.4
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $335 with high case $439.
  • Implied downside of 37.2% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 79/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$335
Margin of safety
-59.3%
Confidence
79/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$533.92Price
Low $231.99
Mid $335.08
High $439.23

IDXX trades against a final fair-value range of $231.99-$439.23, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Razor-and-blade diagnostic instrument model
    Razor-and-blade diagnostic instrument model
  • High switching costs locking in
    High switching costs locking in veterinary clinics
  • Cycle upside
    Accelerating global pet humanization, increased diagnostic utilization per clinical visit, and ongoing margin expansion from software integration.

§2 ベアケース

A prolonged macroeconomic downturn could reduce discretionary veterinary clinic traffic, stalling instrument placements and consumable volume growth, while a high starting valuation multiple compresses.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Severe Valuation Compression

· High

Market recalibrates the extreme 39x trailing P/E multiple down to the model's 25x terminal multiple constraint.

FV impact
-37% to base case midpoint of $335.08

Macroeconomic Traffic Downturn

· Medium

A prolonged recession reduces discretionary veterinary clinic traffic, stalling instrument placements and recurring consumable volumes.

FV impact
Drives valuation toward the $231.99 bear case low

Margin Degradation

· Low

Competition forces aggressive pricing, causing operating margins to fall below the historically stable 30-31.6% range.

FV impact
Erodes 41.7% ROIC and compresses intrinsic fair value further
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Operating margins falling below 30% indicating pricing power erosion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Consumables volume growth dropping below mid-single digits.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in new point-of-care instrument placements.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Market-implied growth expectations failing to meet the 15.29% hurdle.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Terminal multiple compression accelerating toward the 25x model anchor.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期間2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$3.22B$3.37B$3.66B$3.90B$4.30B+7.6%
売上総利益$1.89B$2.00B$2.19B$2.38B$2.66B+8.9%
営業利益$932.0M$898.8M$1.10B$1.13B$1.36B+9.9%
純利益$744.8M$679.1M$845.0M$887.9M$1.06B+9.2%
EPS (希薄化後)$8.03$10.06$10.67$13.08+13.0%
EBITDA$1.04B$1.01B$1.22B$1.27B$1.51B+9.8%
研究開発$161.0M$254.8M$191.0M$219.8M$251.2M+11.8%
販管費$796.4M$850.8M$901.9M$1.03B$1.05B+7.1%

品質スコア

OCF / 純利益
1.12×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
41.7%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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FAQ

IDXX — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, IDXX looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $534 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $335 (range $232–$439), which implies roughly 37.2% downside to the midpoint.
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