IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)

NYSE: IONQ · USD

$32.4

-0.55 (-1.7%)· Recorded snapshot

英語版にフォールバックJA

翻訳中のため英語版を表示しています

このレポートはまだ翻訳されていません。翻訳キューが追いついたら数分後に更新してください。

StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-11

Our latest published analysis: IONQ rated Sell

IonQ, Inc.'s published Sell conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$18.1 / share

Potential value

$32.7 / share

Upside to FV

-54.7%

from $32.4

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$16.2B
Revenue (ttm)	246.5M
Net income (ttm)	-1.4B
EPS (ttm)	-$3.99
Shares out	429.4M
Volume	12,870,216
Beta	3.36

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 246.5M
Net income (ttm): -1.4B
EPS (ttm): -$3.99
Market cap: $16.2B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$2.1M	$11.1M	$22.0M	$43.1M	$130.0M	+180.5%
Gross profit	$-1.5M	$2.6M	$13.9M	$22.5M	$52.5M	—
Operating income	$-38.7M	$-85.7M	$-157.8M	$-232.5M	$-633.7M	—
Net income	$-106.2M	$-48.5M	$-157.8M	$-331.6M	$-510.4M	—
EPS (diluted)	$-0.77	$-0.25	$-0.78	$-1.56	$-1.82	—
EBITDA	$-103.6M	$-42.9M	$-147.3M	$-312.9M	$-474.7M	—
R&D	$20.2M	$44.0M	$92.3M	$136.8M	$305.7M	+97.2%
SG&A	$13.7M	$36.0M	$50.7M	$71.1M	$245.1M	+105.5%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	ホールド
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	ホールド
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	売り
AAPL	Apple Inc.	5T	39.4x	10.8x	101.6%	+6.1%	+28.5%	売り
ACN	Accenture plc	144.3B	18.0x	2.0x	27.9%	+8.0%	+0.4%	ホールド
ADBE	Adobe Inc.	97.1B	13.9x	3.7x	57.2%	+11.5%	-30.7%	強い買い

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$18.06

-54.7% from spot

In the base case, IonQ achieves $18.06 with an estimated probability of 55.0%, representing a return of -54.7% compared to $39.89. Commercial traction across quantum hardware installations and platform consulting expands consolidated revenues as guided by management, while semiconductor foundry integration derisks chip manufacturing. Profitability reaches breakeven late in the explicit horizon as operating leverage begins to take hold, supporting our house Fair value of $18.06.

Full consolidation of acquired semiconductor foundry revenue with standalone operations.
Gradual operating margin expansion toward technology hardware industry averages by FY2030.
Capital expenditures and working capital requirements moderate after initial fab integration.
Ongoing stock-based compensation dilution decelerates as operational cash generation turns positive.

Bull20%

Price target

$32.70

-18.0% from spot

In the bull case, IonQ achieves $32.70 with an estimated probability of 20.0%, generating an implied return of -18.0% against $39.89. Sovereign and commercial enterprise deployments accelerate substantially, driving high attach rates of high-margin quantum computing-as-a-service software. Rapid progress toward fault-tolerant architectures establishes merchant supplier dominance, pushing Potential value to $32.70.

Accelerated enterprise and sovereign adoption of on-premise quantum systems.
Rapid scaling of high-margin QCaaS and software applications expanding consolidated gross margins.
Successful execution of fault-tolerant walking-cat architecture ahead of schedule.
Valuation multiple expansion toward elite infrastructure networking peer levels.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($18.06). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%	4.5%
13.0%	$18.3	$18.3	$18.4	$18.4	$18.5
14.0%	$17.7	$17.7	$17.7	$17.8	$17.8
15.0%	$18.0	$18.0	$18.1	$18.1	$18.1
16.0%	$16.5	$16.6	$16.6	$16.6	$16.6
17.0%	$16.0	$16.0	$16.1	$16.1	$16.1

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E0

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E84.2

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE-60.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC-25.6

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All IONQ indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

209

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 209 of 209 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0001824920
Company name	IonQ, Inc.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	46222L108
Earnings date	2026-11-05
Earnings time	amc
Employees	1,132
Employees change	725
Employees growth	178.13%
Enterprise value	$11.8B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-06-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	2015
Industry	Computer Hardware
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US46222L1089
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-25
Last earnings date	2026-08-05
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split type	Never
Market cap	$13.9B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2026-11-05
Options	Yes
Price	$32.40
Price currency	USD
Sector	Technology
SIC code	7373
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	IONQ
U.S. state	Maryland
Website	https://www.ionq.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Earnings yield	-12.31%
EV/Sales	47.79x
FCF / EV yield	-4.11%
FCF yield	-3.5%
Forward EV/Sales	17.14x
Forward P/S	20.14x
Industry forward P/E	13.99x
Industry P/E	27.36x
P/B ratio	3.77x
P/S ratio	56.17x
Price / tangible book value	38.21x
Sector forward P/E	18.55x
Sector P/E	32.64x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
Gross margin	30.85%
Operating margin	-381.58%
Pretax margin	-571.29%
Profit per employee	$-1.2M
Revenue per employee	$217,733
ROA	-14.47%
ROA (5Y)	-14.09%
ROCE	-14.35%
ROE	-60.48%
ROE (5Y)	-34.4%
ROIC	-25.6%
SBC / revenue	182.56%
Tax / revenue	-16.94%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth years	0
Gross profit growth	166.24%
Gross profit growth (Q)	67.6%
Gross profit growth 3Y	86.08%
Net income growth years	0
Revenue growth	370.64%
Revenue growth (Q)	286.83%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	23.79%
Revenue growth 3Y	146.93%
Revenue growth 5Y	308%
Revenue growth quarters	5
Revenue growth years	4

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-31.5M
Depreciation and amortization	$147.4M
EBIT	$-940.5M
EBITDA	$-793.1M
EPS	$-3.99
FCF per share	$-1.13
Financing cash flow	$3B
Free cash flow	$-483.9M
Free cash flow minus SBC	$-933.8M
Gross profit	$76M
Income taxes	$-41.8M
Investing cash flow	$-1.5B
Net cash flow	$1.1B
Net income	$-1.4B
Operating cash flow minus SBC	$-902.3M
Operating income	$-940.5M
Revenue	$246.5M
Stock-based compensation	$450M

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	2.38
Book value per share	$8.73
Debt / equity	0.02
Goodwill	$2.2B
Long-term assets	$4.4B
Long-term liabilities	$3.2B
Net cash (debt)	$2.1B
Net cash / market cap	14.91%
Net cash growth	291.31%
Net debt / equity	-0.62
Piotroski F-Score	3
Property, plant and equipment	$190.9M
Shareholders' equity	$3.3B
Tangible book value	$362.4M
Tangible book value per share	$0.95
Total assets	$6.8B
Total cash	$2.1B
Total debt	$54.5M
Total liabilities	$3.4B
WACC	22.64%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	0.06
Current assets	$2.4B
Current liabilities	$226.1M
Current ratio	10.66
Inventory turnover	2.8
Net working capital	$76.4M
Quick ratio	9.92
Working capital	$2.2B
Working capital turnover	0.18

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	-49.98%
Dividend yield	0%
Shareholder yield	-49.98%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
150-day SMA	$43.76
1D price change	-1.68%
1M price change	-30.1%
1M total return	-30.1%
1W price change	1.7%
1W total return	1.7%
1Y price change	-49.38%
1Y return CAGR	-49.4%
1Y total return	-49.38%
20-day SMA	$35.75
200-day SMA	$42.23
3M price change	-11.5%
3M total return	-11.5%
3Y price change	213.51%
3Y return CAGR	46.35%
3Y total return	213.51%
50-day SMA	$38.65
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$73.65
52-week high date	2026-06-03
52-week low	$25.89
52-week low date	2026-03-30
5Y price change	158.88%
5Y return CAGR	20.96%
5Y total return	158.88%
6M price change	-27.49%
6M total return	-27.49%
After-hours change	0.51%
After-hours close	$32.40
After-hours price	$32.56
All-time high	$84.64
All-time high date	2025-10-13
All-time low	$3.04
All-time low date	2022-12-28
Average true range (ATR)	$2.35
Average volume	21.9M
Beta (1Y)	5.37
Beta (2Y)	3.43
Beta (5Y)	3.36
Change from 52-week high	-56.01%
Change from 52-week low	25.13%
Change from all-time high	-62.44%
Change from all-time low	945.72%
Change from open	-2.1%
Day's gap	0.42%
Dollar volume	$416.9M
High price	$33.30
Low price	$31.66
Monthly RSI	47.53
Open price	$33.09
Position in 52-week range	44.82%
Premarket change	-0.09%
Premarket close	$32.95
Premarket price	$32.92
Premarket volume	727.6K
Previous close	$32.95
Price vs 150-day SMA	-27.35%
Price vs 20-day SMA	-11.08%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-24.71%
Price vs 50-day SMA	-17.75%
Relative volume	0.59
RSI	38.61
Sharpe ratio	-0.34
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.76
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.68
Sortino ratio	-0.45
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.3
Sortino ratio (5Y)	1.16
Volume	12.9M
Weekly RSI	41.3
YTD price change	-29.15%
YTD total return	-29.15%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	426.5M
Float percentage	99.31%
Shares change (QoQ)	2.45%
Shares change (YoY)	49.98%
Shares held by insiders	0.47%
Shares held by institutions	46.54%
Shares outstanding	429.4M
Short % of float	9.53%
Short % of shares	9.46%
Short ratio	1.7 days

Other indicators

Additional ticker metrics that do not fit the primary research groupings.

Metric	Value
Page views	880

Deeper analysis on IONQ

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this IONQ report

What is the latest published IONQ stock rating?

IonQ, Inc. is shown with Sell in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full IONQ analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-11, lives at /stocks/IONQ/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for IONQ?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-11 gives IONQ a fair value of USD 18 and a potential value of USD 33. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the IONQ page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-11). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

SellIONQ · Fair value $18.1-54.7%

Read full analysis →

IonQ, Inc. (IONQ)

Our latest published analysis: IONQ rated Sell

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · IONQ

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All IONQ indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Other indicators

Deeper analysis on IONQ

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	1.5
Management	7.5
Balance Sheet	8.5
Profitability	3.5
Revenue Growth	9.0
Risk Assessment	7.0
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	5.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5