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Intuitive Surgical maintains a dominant, near-monopoly position in soft-tissue robotic surgery. Its massive installed base of da Vinci systems creates a razor-and-blade model with high switching costs, generating robust recurring revenues from instruments and accessories. Strong free cash flow generation and high ROIC solidify its status as a premier quality compounder. Fair value range: low $176, high $337, with mid-point at $255.
Stock analysis

ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc. fair value $255–$337

ISRG
By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-09次回更新: 2026-08-09Methodology v2.4Archetype: Mature compounderNASDAQ · Health Care
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株価
$450.06
▼ -195.39 (-43.41%)
公正価値
$255
$255–$337
評価
売り
confidence 87/100
上昇余地
-43.4%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$216.47
buy below · 15%
時価総額
$159.4B
P/E fwd 38.2
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Premium quality compounder with a wide competitive moat.
  • Reverse DCF implies ~20% perpetual growth required at current $450 price.
  • Intrinsic valuation models anchor at $254.67, signaling a massive premium.
  • Sell recommendation driven by extreme valuation disconnect, not business quality.
Fair value
$255
Margin of safety
-76.7%
Confidence
87/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$450.06Price
FV $254.67
High $336.56

Intuitive Surgical maintains a dominant, near-monopoly position in soft-tissue robotic surgery. Its massive installed base of da Vinci systems creates a razor-and-blade model with high switching costs, generating robust recurring revenues from instruments and accessories. Strong free cash flow generation and high ROIC solidify its status as a premier quality compounder.

  • Massive installed base of da
    Massive installed base of da Vinci systems
  • High switching costs for hospitals
    High switching costs for hospitals and surgeons
  • Cycle upside
    Post-pandemic procedure backlog clearance drives elevated system utilization and instrument consumption.

§2 ベアケース

A severe hospital capexCapital expendituresCash spent on acquiring or upgrading property, plant, and equipment. Splits into maintenance capex (sustaining current capacity) and growth capex (expanding capacity). freeze combined with accelerated placements of competing systems like Medtronic's Hugo compresses margins and slows new system placements significantly.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Medtronic/J&J Capture 30% Market Share

· Low

Competitors successfully disrupt the monopoly, forcing severe pricing pressure on systems and instruments.

FV impact
Downside below $175
Trigger
2-3 Years

Severe Hospital Capex Freeze

· Medium

Macro-driven hospital budget cuts drastically slow new system placements and upgrade cycles globally.

FV impact
Downside to $190
Trigger
1-2 Years

New Modality Disruption

· Low

Emergence of non-robotic, highly effective minimally invasive alternatives permanently reduces TAM for da Vinci.

FV impact
Downside to $160
Trigger
5+ Years
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Decline in da Vinci procedure volume growth below 10%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Compression of gross margins below 60%MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
System placement growth turning negative YoYMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Competitor system FDA approvals with superior clinical dataMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Significant insider selling coupled with guidance cutsMonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3CAGR
期間2022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高$6.22B$7.12B$8.35B$10.06B+17.4%
売上総利益$4.20B$4.73B$5.63B$6.64B+16.5%
営業利益$1.58B$1.77B$2.35B$2.95B+23.1%
純利益
EPS (希薄化後)$3.65$5.03$6.42$7.87+29.2%
EBITDA$1.94B$2.22B$2.85B$3.62B+23.1%
研究開発$879.0M$998.8M$1.15B$1.31B+14.3%
販管費$1.74B$1.96B$2.14B$2.39B+11.1%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
7 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
39.9
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
OCF / 純利益
1.06×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
13.0%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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24か月分の評価アーカイブ
ウォッチリストブリーフィング + 評価変更アラート
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FAQ

ISRG — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, ISRG looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $450 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $255 (range $176–$337), which implies roughly 43.4% downside to the midpoint.
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