JD.com, Inc. (JD)

NASDAQ: JD · USD

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-05-20

Our latest published analysis: JD rated Strong Buy

JD.com, Inc.'s published Strong Buy conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$44.1 / share

Potential value

$56.4 / share

Upside to FV

+36.1%

Moat

6.5/10

Narrow

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$43.7B
P/E (forward)	7.5x

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

P/E (forward): 7.5x
Market cap: $43.7B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	Trend
Period	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$1,046.24B	$1,084.66B	$1,158.82B	$1,309.09B	+7.8%
Gross profit	$147.07B	$159.70B	$183.87B	$210.03B	+12.6%
Operating income	$15.97B	$34.53B	$54.43B	$28.13B	+20.8%
Net income	$10.38B	$24.17B	$41.36B	$19.63B	+23.7%
EPS (diluted)	$6.42	$15.22	$26.86	$12.90	+26.2%
EBITDA	$23.21B	$42.82B	$63.34B	$37.87B	+17.7%
R&D	$16.89B	$16.39B	$17.03B	$22.23B	+9.6%
SG&A	$48.83B	$49.84B	$56.84B	$95.93B	+25.2%

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Base and Bull scenarios

Bull20%

Price target

$56.43

+74.3% from spot

Macroeconomic stimulus in China revives consumer spending, while JD's supply chain scale and 3P marketplace expansion yield significant operating leverage, driving earnings growth above 20%.

Macro stimulus revives consumer spending
Earnings growth exceeds 20%
3P marketplace yields operating leverage

Base60%

Price target

$44.07

+36.1% from spot

JD.com operates as a mature quality compounder with defensible logistics. Intense price competition and sluggish demand restrict near-term growth, warranting a heavily discounted terminal multiple of 12x.

Revenue growth fades from 5.95% to 3%
Operating margin normalizes at 3.5%
Terminal multiple at 12x

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($44.08). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.

Ke ↓ / g →	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%	4.0%
6.1%	$54.7	$62.2	$72.2	$77.1	$77.1
7.1%	$44.1	$48.8	$54.7	$62.2	$72.2
8.1%	$36.9	$40.2	$44.1	$48.8	$54.7
9.1%	$31.7	$34.1	$36.9	$40.2	$44.1
10.1%	$27.8	$29.7	$31.7	$34.1	$36.9

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Forward P/E7.5

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E23.8

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROEn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROICn/a

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

Deeper analysis on JD

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

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Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

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Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

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Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

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Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

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Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

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Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

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Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Scorecard

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this JD report

What is the latest published JD stock rating?

JD.com, Inc. is shown with Strong Buy in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full JD analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-05-20, lives at /stocks/JD/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for JD?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-05-20 gives JD a fair value of USD 44 and a potential value of USD 56. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the JD page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-05-20). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

Strong BuyJD · Fair value $44.1+36.1%

Read full analysis →

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	8.5
Management	5.4
Balance Sheet	6.0
Profitability	5.0
Revenue Growth	4.5
Risk Assessment	7.5
Competitive Moat	6.5
Earnings Quality	4.5
Capital Efficiency	4.5

JD.com, Inc. (JD)

Our latest published analysis: JD rated Strong Buy

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · JD

Valuation

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

Deeper analysis on JD

Frequently asked questions

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