JPM · 公開リサーチアーカイブ

20264月

JPM Apr 2026 · Hold

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) is the largest US bank by assets ($4.4 trillion), the No. 1 global investment bank by league tables (2023–2025), and America's most profitable large financial institution by virtually every metric that matters to long-term investors. The company operates three primary business segments: Consumer and Community Banking (CCB) serving 86+ million retail customers through 5,000+ branches and the leading Chase banking app; Commercial and Investment Bank (CIB) offering investment banking, markets, payments, custody, and lending to corporations, financial institutions, and governments worldwide; and Asset and Wealth Management (AWM) managing approximately $4 trillion in AUM for institutional clients and ultra-high-net-worth individuals. JPM was founded in 1799 and has been led by CEO Jamie Dimon for 17 years, a tenure marked by exceptional crisis management, disciplined capital allocation, and consistent outperformance versus the KBW Bank Index in every 5-year period since 2007. We classify JPMorgan as a Financial archetype — a GSIB money-center bank whose valuation requires residual income and forward earnings frameworks rather than traditional FCFF or owner earnings models. As a financial archetype, Ke (cost of equity at 7.43% quality-adjusted, based on CAPM with adjusted beta of 0.7048 and 50bps quality reduction for fortress CET1, ROTCE leadership, and management excellence) replaces WACC as the primary discount rate, and ROTCE versus Ke spread is the primary economic profit indicator rather than ROIC versus WACC. The archetype classification determines all downstream parameter choices: terminal growth of 2.5% (anchored to US nominal GDP, appropriate for a regulated GSIB), terminal P/E of 13.5x (through-cycle midpoint of the historical 10–15x range), and a 20% dynamic margin of safety consistent with a 7/10 business quality score. The investment thesis is straightforward in its architecture but nuanced in its current positioning: JPMorgan is the highest-quality large-cap bank franchise generating approximately $34 billion of annual economic profit (ROTCE 18.4% minus quality-adjusted Ke 7.43% multiplied by $309.7B tangible equity), backed by an unassailable fortress balance sheet (CET1 >15%), the deepest CIB and AWM franchises in US banking, and a management track record that has compounded book value at 8% annually for 17 years. The business unambiguously deserves permanent ownership as a core financial sector holding. The current Hold rating is not a franchise-quality judgment — it is a price-discipline judgment that the intrinsic value of $293 does not justify new capital at $311.79. Our composite fair value of $293 (range: $176–$421) is derived from three models: residual income at $298 (38% weight, primary bank valuation framework), forward earnings at $295 (47% weight, co-primary, directly anchored to the 2026E internal valuation cross-checks EPS of $22.28), and DDM at $274 (15% weight, capital-return cross-check). The models converge tightly — within 1.0% between the two primaries — providing high analytical confidence in the $293–298 cluster as the through-cycle fair value.Historical archived edition · analyzed 2026-04-28

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USD 311.79

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