任意の製品分析
許可いただいた場合、プライバシーに配慮した限定的な分析を使用し、どのリサーチ経路が有効かを把握します。広告トラッカーやセッション録画は使用しません。この選択は設定で変更できます。詳しくは プライバシーポリシー.
The largest opportunity for Kraft Heinz is accelerating volume recovery across its Taste Elevation portfolio and international footprint.
Operating margin compressing below 11.5% over the next 12 months as input cost inflation of 4% to 5% in FY2027 outpaces net price realization.
We rate Kraft Heinz a Sell. At a report-date price of $21.91 on October 5, 2026, the stock trades at an implied return of -32.45% to our Fair value of $14.80, as elevated debt and restricted retail pricing power outweigh operational stabilization efforts.4
For ordinary investors, a Sell rating indicates that capital should be directed away from the shares and existing positions trimmed or exited. Kraft Heinz faces structural volume elasticity in mature retail categories and carries heavy enterprise debt that bounds equity cash flow generation.45
On the report date of October 5, 2026, Kraft Heinz traded at $21.91. This price stands 48.04% above our Fair value of $14.80, representing an implied return of -32.45%. Even under our optimistic scenario, Potential value reaches $21.05, meaning the report-date price exceeds the upper boundary of our valuation range.4
The primary risk that would accelerate downside is unmitigated cost inflation combined with retail customer concentration. Management anticipates 4% to 5% cost inflation in FY2027. Because Walmart accounts for 21% of net sales and retail consumption fell 2.5% in the second quarter of 2026, Kraft Heinz has limited flexibility to pass on price increases without losing category share to private label alternatives. If operating margins slide below 11.5%, annual cash flow would fail to adequately support the company's $21,219M total debt obligations.3458
The primary driver that could deliver the optimistic Potential value of $21.05 is accelerated volume growth across Taste Elevation and emerging markets. Heinz condiments grew 3% year-to-date globally, while emerging markets consumption surged 12% in the second quarter of 2026. If product innovations such as PowerMac (now distributed in 35,000 stores) and global marketing partnerships sustain volume recovery without additional investment wraparound into FY2027, gross productivity could lift operating margins above 14.5% and accelerate balance sheet deleveraging.5
Heinz condiments expanded 3% year-to-date worldwide and emerging markets consumption surged 12% in the second quarter of 2026, demonstrating that targeted marketing investments are generating organic traction outside mature domestic grocery channels.5
Despite reported trailing GAAP losses driven by non-cash impairments, Kraft Heinz generated $4,462M in operating cash flow and $3,661M in free cash flow in FY2025, providing essential liquidity to fund ongoing capital reinvestment and debt service obligations.67
Heinz and Kraft hold established consumer loyalty in center-store condiments and packaged meals. Heinz worldwide grew 3% year-to-date and U.S. condiments expanded 3% following targeted marketing investments, supported by emotional engagement partnerships including Disney co-branding and licensing activations.5
We rate Kraft Heinz a Sell because the report-date market price of $21.91 sits 48.04% above our $14.80 Fair value while $21,219M in debt obligations and limited grocery pricing power restrict equity cash generation.4
The Kraft Heinz Company is a global food and beverage manufacturer that produces condiments, sauces, packaged meals, cheese, and grocery staples under recognized household brands including Heinz, Kraft, and Mac & Cheese. The company operates 69 manufacturing and processing facilities worldwide, owning 65 and leasing four. Its manufacturing, transportation, marketing, and distribution activities are subject to extensive food safety, nutritional, and occupational health regulations across domestic and international jurisdictions.
Kraft Heinz distributes products through retail grocery channels, club stores, and foodservice operators worldwide. Its largest customer, Walmart Inc., represented approximately 21% of consolidated net sales in FY2025, FY2024, and FY2023 across both reportable operating segments. Geographically, the United States represents the company's largest market, generating $16,784M or 67.3% of FY2025 net sales, while international operations contributed $8,158M across other geographical areas ($5,086M), Canada ($1,802M), and the United Kingdom ($1,270M) of $24,942M in total annual revenue.
In a combined macroeconomic and operational stress scenario, persistent retail volume elasticity prevents Kraft Heinz from passing through anticipated 4% to 5% cost inflation in FY2027. Major retail partners, led by Walmart at 21% of net sales, extract trade concessions and expand private label shelf space as consumption trends remain negative following Q2's -2.5% contraction. Simultaneously, refinancing spreads widen on the company's $21,219M total debt obligations, elevating pre-tax borrowing costs above the current 19.78% rate. Under this dual compression of operating cash flows and rising capital costs, enterprise cash generation contracts.
The downside scenario reflects persistent consumer price elasticity, private label encroachment, and aggressive retail customer pushback. Under this path, input cost inflation cannot be passed through to consumers, forcing margin concessions and promotional discounting. Operating margins compress toward industry baselines, while elevated debt refinancing burdens restrict discretionary cash flows, driving enterprise valuation significantly lower.
Management guided 4% to 5% cost inflation in FY2027. Given Walmart's 21% share of net sales and Q2 consumption decline of -2.5%, unmitigated input inflation and private label price pressure compress operating margins below 11.5%, approaching CAG's 11.59% and the industry baseline of 10.8%.358
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Persistent retail volume contraction demonstrates that stepped-up marketing and brand investments are failing to overcome consumer price elasticity, forcing defensive promotional discounting and depressing top-line growth.
現在:-2.5% in Q2 2026
警戒条件Worse than -2.0% across FY2026-FY2027
Operating margin dropping below 11.5% confirms that gross productivity is failing to absorb 4% to 5% cost inflation, compressing profitability toward Conagra's 11.59% and the 10.8% industry baseline.
The Kraft Heinz Company possesses a narrow economic moat grounded in intangible brand assets and entrenched retail distribution scale. Iconic brands such as Heinz, Kraft, and Mac & Cheese provide persistent category recognition and vital shelf placement across global retail grocery aisles. This brand affinity is demonstrated by Heinz worldwide growing 3% year-to-date and U.S. condiments advancing 3%, supported by innovative category launches such as PowerMac achieving 35,000 store distribution and collaborative marketing agreements with Disney. Furthermore, Kraft Heinz maintains broad international reach, generating $5,086M from other geographical areas, $1,802M in Canada, and $1,270M in the United Kingdom alongside its core $16,784M U.S. base.
However, structural limitations preclude a wide economic moat designation. Kraft Heinz's trailing ROIC of 5.55% remains substantially below its computed cost of capital of 10.24%, confirming that historical returns have failed to deliver excess economic profit. High retail customer concentration, where Walmart alone accounts for approximately 21% of net sales, severely constrains unilateral pricing power. When input cost inflation accelerates—such as the 4% to 5% cost increase projected by management for FY2027 —the company cannot pass through price increases without triggering volume elasticity, as evidenced by the 2.5% consumption decline experienced in Q2 2026. Consequently, while brand equity protects against complete commoditization, retail channel power limits sustainable economic rents.
Kraft Heinz generates negative economic profit on a trailing basis, as its return on invested capital of 5.55% falls 4.69 percentage points short of its computed weighted average cost of capital of 10.24%. Although FY2025 GAAP operating income of -$4,669M was depressed by non-cash goodwill impairments, normalized enterprise earnings power remains bounded by $21,219M in debt, leaving economic value creation dependent on achieving projected margin normalization toward 14.5%.247
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
None of the valuation methods used to calculate Fair value relies on a separate assumption about how long the competitive advantage lasts.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($14.80). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $2.2B after modeled reinvestment of $301.0M, with terminal value at 68.2% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The modal base scenario carries a probability of 50.0%, establishing a target of $14.80 which represents an implied return of -32.5% relative to $21.91. This path assumes operational stabilization across core North American grocery brands, with sequential improvement in consumption trends and disciplined gross productivity initiatives offsetting upcoming input cost inflation. Operating margins normalize gradually as marketing investments reinforce brand equity, while enterprise cash flows are directed toward debt reduction.
A quarterly beat driven by positive volume consumption and successful gross margin absorption of cost inflation would demonstrate that marketing investments are regaining market share, warranting an upgrade of the stance from Sell to Reduce.
Inline performance confirms the analytical expectation that retail volume elasticity and mass merchant pricing resistance bound top-line recovery, keeping intrinsic value below current share trading levels.
A quarterly miss confirms that private label competition and retail partner pushback are eroding market share, while unmitigated cost inflation accelerates operating margin compression and exacerbates balance sheet debt burdens.
Earnings quality displays a distinct dichotomy between reported headline accounting figures and underlying cash generation. While reported GAAP results were heavily impacted by non-cash goodwill and intangible asset impairment charges, underlying cash conversion has proven durable. Operating cash flow remains robust relative to normalized operating earnings, supported by disciplined working capital management and steady cash flows from defensive grocery staples. Capital expenditures remain disciplined relative to depreciation, reflecting appropriate maintenance of manufacturing infrastructure. Sustaining this earnings quality depends on gross productivity programs successfully offsetting upcoming cost inflation without requiring trade inventory loading or deteriorating working capital terms with major retail partners.
Consensus revenue and earnings estimates have stabilized following the recent quarterly release. Analysts have maintained projections without material upward or downward revisions as management confirmed that near-term volume elasticity is being addressed through disciplined brand investments without carrying incremental promotional spending into the subsequent fiscal year.
Sequential improvement from negative consumption toward positive volume growth reveals whether brand marketing is overcoming consumer price elasticity, directly driving top-line revenue recovery.
A fundamental insight into Kraft Heinz's financial profile is the sharp decoupling between reported GAAP net income and actual underlying cash generation. In FY2025, the company reported a GAAP operating loss of -$4,669M and a net loss of -$5,846M, driven by substantial non-cash goodwill and intangible asset impairment write-downs. In stark contrast, cash operations generated $4,462M in operating cash flow and $3,661M in free cash flow after funding $801M in capital expenditures. This cash conversion demonstrates that the underlying core consumer defensive portfolio generates steady operating cash flows. However, these cash flows are largely absorbed by the capital structure, as an observed pre-tax debt cost of 19.78% on $21,219M of total debt imposes heavy enterprise carrying costs.
Kraft Heinz's ROIC trajectory is projected as improving over the explicit forecast horizon as historical non-cash goodwill impairments lap and normalized operating profits recover toward $3,202M in FY2026 and $3,406M in FY2027. While trailing ROIC of 5.55% indicates enterprise value destruction relative to WACC, margin stabilization toward 14.5% and disciplined capital reinvestment (12% to 15% of NOPAT) are expected to gradually lift returns on capital toward the cost of capital.
Latest ROIC of 5.55% sits 4.69 percentage points below the computed enterprise WACC of 10.24%, confirming negative economic value creation on an enterprise basis.
In FY2025, Kraft Heinz generated $4,462M in operating cash flow and $3,661M in , despite a reported GAAP net loss of -$5,846M due to non-cash asset impairments.
| 売上高 | $24,942,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $16,633,000,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $8,309,000,000 |
| 営業費用 | $12,978,000,000 |
| 営業利益 | -$4,669,000,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$1,177,000,000 |
| 純利益 | -$5,846,000,000 |
| 総資産 | $81,786,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $2,615,000,000 |
| 流動資産 | $10,127,000,000 |
| 負債合計 | $39,997,000,000 |
| 流動負債 | $8,778,000,000 |
| 株主資本 | $41,777,000,000 |
| 純利益 | $2,744,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $4,184,000,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $948,000,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $109,000,000 |
| その他の営業調整 | $383,000,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $4,184,000,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $5,588,000,000 |
| 期首現金 | $1,404,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $1,023,000,000 |
| 設備投資 | $1,024,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流出 | $3,008,000,000 |
| 自社株買い | $988,000,000 |
| 支払配当金 | $1,931,000,000 |
| 純有利子負債返済 | $24,000,000 |
| その他の財務活動 | $65,000,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $71,000,000 |
| 期末現金 | $1,486,000,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$1,023,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | -$3,008,000,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-12 · SEC EDGAR
| 地域別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $167.8億 | 67.3% | -5.5% |
| Other Geographical Areas | $50.9億 | 20.4% | 1.3% |
| Canada | $18億 | 7.2% | 1.5% |
| United Kingdom | $12.7億 | 5.1% | -0.8% |
2026-10-05の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $263億 | $74.1億 | $36億 | $26.5億 | $14億 | $12.5億 | $13.4億 | $4600万 | — | $35.8億 | — | $14.5億 | -$46.2億 | — | $42.6億 | $42億 | $324億 | 21.3% | — | 3.3% | — |
| 2017-12-30 | $260.8億 | $77.2億 | $109.4億 | $5億 | -$6.9億 | $11.9億 | $10.3億 | $4600万 | — | $28.9億 | — | $11.8億 | -$42.2億 | $42.6億 | $17.7億 | $17.7億 | $315億 | 23.2% | — | 4.6% | — |
| 2018-12-29 | $262.7億 | -$90.5億 | -$101.9億 | $25.7億 | $17.5億 | $8.3億 | $9.8億 | $3300万 | — | $31.8億 | — | $2.9億 | -$33.6億 | $17.7億 | $11.4億 | $11.3億 | $311.7億 | -38.8% | — | — | — |
| 2019-12-28 | $249.8億 | $50.2億 | $19.4億 | $35.5億 | $27.8億 | $7.7億 | $9.9億 | $4600万 | — | $19.5億 | — | $15.1億 | -$39.1億 | $11.4億 | $22.8億 | $22.8億 | $292.4億 | 12.3% | — | 4.3% | — |
| 2020-12-26 | $261.9億 | $33.9億 | $3.6億 | $49.3億 | $43.3億 | $6億 | $9.7億 | $1.6億 | — | $19.6億 | — | -$5.2億 | -$33.3億 | $22.8億 | $34.2億 | $34.2億 | $283.1億 | 8.1% | — | 3.0% | — |
| 2021-12-25 | $260.4億 | $46.7億 | $10.1億 | $53.6億 | $44.6億 | $9.1億 | $9.1億 | $2億 | $2.7億 | $19.6億 | — | $40.4億 | -$93.4億 | $34.2億 | $34.5億 | $34.5億 | $218.2億 | 13.3% | — | 4.0% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $264.9億 | $48.2億 | $23.6億 | $24.7億 | $15.5億 | $9.2億 | $9.3億 | $1.5億 | $2.8億 | $19.6億 | -$14.6億 | -$10.9億 | -$37.1億 | $34.5億 | $10.4億 | $10.4億 | $200.7億 | 13.7% | — | 5.5% | — |
| 2023-12-30 | $266.4億 | $55.1億 | $28.6億 | $39.8億 | $29.6億 | $10.1億 | $9.6億 | $1.4億 | $4.6億 | $19.7億 | -$1.9億 | -$9.2億 | -$26.8億 | $10.4億 | $14億 | $14億 | $200.3億 | 17.2% | — | 5.3% | — |
| 2024-12-28 | $258.5億 | $27.2億 | $27.4億 | $41.8億 | $31.6億 | $10.2億 | $9.5億 | $1.1億 | $9.9億 | $19.3億 | -$2400万 | -$10.2億 | -$30.1億 | $14億 | $14.9億 | $13.3億 | $198.7億 | 6.5% | — | 7.0% | — |
| 2025-12-27 | $249.4億 | -$35.3億 | -$58.5億 | $44.6億 | $36.6億 | $8億 | $9.7億 | $9500万 | $4.4億 | $19億 | $9.4億 | -$18.3億 | -$12.5億 | $14.9億 | $29.4億 | $36.8億 | $212.2億 | -18.7% | — | — | — |
The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) trades at 11.2x forward earnings against a peer median of 10.3x. Its EV/EBITDA of 7.8x compares with a peer median of 8.7x. The comparison uses 4 peers: General Mills Inc., Conagra Brands Inc., Hormel Foods Corporation and The J.M. Smucker Company, as of 2026-10-05.
The packaged food processing industry exhibits mature capital discipline, with an industry capex-to-revenue ratio of 2.3% and capex-to-depreciation of 1.34. Kraft Heinz reflects this cycle restraint, spending $801M on capex in FY2025 against $968M in depreciation (a 0.83 ratio), indicating disciplined maintenance and automation rather than greenfield capacity expansion. Concurrently, peers exhibit flat to negative revenue trajectories (Conagra -1.4%, General Mills -2.8%, Hormel -2.4%).7
In an industry upcycle, consumer demand stabilizes across branded grocery staples, supported by easing agricultural input costs and real wage growth. Brand investments in Taste Elevation and product innovation drive positive volume elasticity, allowing branded manufacturers to preserve price realization. Operating leverage expands as gross productivity programs outpace residual inflation, lifting operating margins beyond historical norms toward peer-leading levels observed at General Mills (15.24%) and J.M. Smucker (17.90%).
In a prolonged industry downcycle, persistent consumer budget pressures accelerate trade-down to private label store brands across center-store packaged foods. Large retail partners, particularly Walmart at 21% of net sales, leverage scale to resist price increases, demanding higher trade promotions. When combined with peer promotional discounting from competitors like Conagra (operating at 11.59% operating margin), unmitigated input inflation erodes profitability, driving packaged food operating margins down toward the 10.8% industry baseline.
Kraft Heinz holds an established center-store grocery presence with $24,942M in FY2025 revenue, anchored by leading market shares in condiments, sauces, and packaged meals. While the United States accounts for 67.3% of sales ($16,784M), geographic diversification provides meaningful international support through Canada ($1,802M), the United Kingdom ($1,270M), and other international regions ($5,086M). However, customer concentration with Walmart at 21% of net sales and $21,219M in total debt leaves the company more financially levered and channel-dependent than peers.48
The committee assigned a Sell rating based on a composite fair value of $14.80, which sits 32.5% below the market price of $21.91. Enterprise valuation is constrained by $21,219M in total debt, an elevated pre-tax debt cost of 19.78%, and 21% revenue exposure to Walmart. A 0% portfolio allocation is warranted to preserve capital against asymmetric downside risk.248
Portfolio risk management requires strict adherence to capital preservation given the Sell committee rating. Investors holding legacy positions face asymmetric downside exposure driven by $21,219M in total debt, upcoming debt refinancing maturities, customer concentration where Walmart commands 21% of revenue, and 4% to 5% cost inflation. Risk management dictates liquidating exposure on tactical strength toward the 200-day moving average of $23.94, with zero new capital deployment until equity valuation reconciles with fundamental intrinsic cash flow value.
At $21.91, Kraft Heinz trades at a 48.04% premium to our Fair value of $14.80. With $21,219M in debt and trailing ROIC of 5.55% falling below computed WACC of 10.24%, economic profit generation does not support current market valuations.24
While Kraft Heinz produced $3,661M in free cash flow in FY2025, debt servicing on $21.2B in obligations with pre-tax debt costs of 19.78% constrains capital return growth and leaves equity vulnerable to refinancing costs.26
Consensus estimates project top-line contraction of -1.26% in FY2026 and modest growth of +0.23% in FY2027, reflecting saturated center-store grocery categories and ongoing retail volume elasticity.1
We recommend selling Kraft Heinz shares. At a report-date price of $21.91 on October 5, 2026, the stock trades at an implied return of -32.45% to our Fair value of $14.80. While operating cash flow remains positive at $4.46B, total debt of $21,219M and limited grocery pricing power restrict equity upside.47
Even under our optimistic scenario, Potential value reaches $21.05, which remains below the report-date market price. Anticipated 4% to 5% cost inflation in FY2027 alongside retail concentration with Walmart at 21% of net sales creates persistent margin risk, making current risk-adjusted returns unfavorable.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
KHC holds $21.22B in total debt ($21,219M) with an pre-tax debt cost of 19.78%. Higher refinancing spreads that push enterprise WACC above 12.24% from computed WACC of 10.24% severely compress equity residual value.24
Ongoing revenue contraction (Q3 revenue guided down ~1%) and customer pushback from Walmart (21% of revenue) de-rate forward valuation multiples from 11.15x toward CAG's 8.74x.3458
現在:13.0% forecast for FY2026 / -18.72% reported in FY2025
警戒条件Below 11.5%
Loss of shelf space or volume at Walmart signals direct market share erosion to private label alternatives, impairing distribution scale across North American grocery channels.
現在:21.0% of net sales in FY2024 and FY2025
警戒条件Decline below 18.0% accompanied by category share loss
Widening refinancing spreads on $21,219M in total debt with an observed pre-tax debt cost of 19.78% escalates corporate debt service burdens and crushes residual equity value.
現在:10.24% computed WACC
警戒条件Above 12.24%
Forward multiple compression below 8.8x de-rates Kraft Heinz toward peer Conagra's 8.74x trough multiple due to top-line stagnation and persistent volume declines.
現在:11.15x forward P/E
警戒条件Below 8.8x
| medium |
| 12-18 months |
| Deploying ongoing gross productivity programs and procurement hedging without carrying over 2026 brand investment spending into 2027.5 |
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($7.54) plus discounted terminal value ($16.20) minus signed per current share ($14.79) equals the $8.95 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Project SBC-adjusted EPS, discount each year's earnings at cost of equity, then add a Gordon-growth terminal value.
Under the moderate discount rate, $7.46 comes from forecast-period earnings and $41.64 from the long-term value, totaling $49.10.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
The optimistic scenario carries a probability of 25.0%, establishing a target of $21.05 and Potential value of $21.05, representing an implied return of -3.9% from $21.91. In this path, stepped-up brand reinvestment drives a sustained turnaround in retail consumption, while emerging market distribution channels deliver double-digit growth. Operating leverage expands as gross productivity programs outpace input cost inflation, enabling operating margins to expand toward peer-leading levels and accelerating debt paydown.
Preserving shelf space and category pricing alignment with the largest retail partner prevents destructive trade allowances and protects gross margins against private label encroachment.
The extent to which manufacturing and supply chain efficiencies absorb cost pressures determines whether operating margins expand toward normalized targets or compress toward industry baselines.
Sustained free cash flow generation is essential to reduce significant enterprise debt balances and lower annual interest expenses.
Double-digit international volume expansion provides structural top-line diversification that counterbalances mature domestic grocery volume stagnation.
| $25.05B |
| $25.56B |
| $26.07B |
| Revenue growth | -1.3% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Operating margin | 13.0% | 13.8% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Operating income | $3.20B | $3.41B | $3.56B | $3.71B | $3.78B |
| Tax rate | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| NOPAT | $2.51B | $2.67B | $2.79B | $2.90B | $2.96B |
| Reinvestment | $300.98M | $320.23M | $418.07M | $435.44M | $444.15M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 12.0% | 12.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $2.21B | $2.35B | $2.37B | $2.47B | $2.52B |
| Terminal growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Kraft Heinz's capital allocation strategy is oriented toward balance sheet deleveraging, disciplined maintenance capital expenditure, and targeted brand reinvestment. With total debt of $21,219M ($17,544M net debt), the enterprise is heavily leveraged, requiring that the bulk of free cash flow be allocated to debt service and scheduled bond maturities. In FY2025, capital expenditures were held to $801M, with maintenance capital expenditure established at 85% of total outlays ($680.85M, or 2.73% of revenue), closely mirroring the packaged food industry baseline of 2.3%. Stock-based compensation of $95M in FY2025 remains modest at 0.38% of revenue. Discretionary capital deployments, including substantial share repurchases or large-scale acquisitions, are subordinated to leverage reduction and brand support.
Total debt stands at $21,219M with an observed pre-tax cost of debt of 19.78%, contributing to an enterprise WACC of 10.24%.
Substantial debt claims depress equity residual value under enterprise cash flow valuation ($8.95 FCFF DCF midpoint), keeping the composite fair value ($14.80) well below current trading prices ($21.91).
Management guided 4% to 5% cost inflation in FY2027, while the house forecast projects operating margins to recover from 13.0% in FY2026 to 14.5% by FY2029-FY2030.
If gross productivity programs fail to fully offset mid-single-digit cost inflation, operating margins risk falling toward Conagra's 11.59% and the industry baseline of 10.8%.
| マージン |
|---|
| KHC | The Kraft Heinz Company | $26.0B | 11.2x | 1.0x | 7.8x | -8.8% | — |
| GIS | General Mills Inc. | $16.9B | 10.0x | 0.9x | 8.9x | -10.5% | 15.2% |
| CAG | Conagra Brands Inc. | $6.4B | 8.7x | 0.6x | 7.9x | -24.9% | 11.6% |
| HRL | Hormel Foods Corporation | $11.1B | 12.8x | 0.9x | 10.4x | 4.3% | 8.6% |
| SJM | The J.M. Smucker Company | $12.4B | 10.7x | 1.4x | 8.6x | 3.9% | 17.9% |
| negative |
| Mass grocery retailers continue to consolidate category buying power, using sophisticated inventory systems and scale dominance to dictate vendor terms, extract promotional funding, and resist wholesale price hikes. |
| A price of $13.30 represents a 10% margin of safety below fair value of $14.80 and approaches the DCF enterprise value ($8.95), contingent upon verified stabilization in consumption trends. |
| Adjusted Operating Margin | Below 12.0% in FY2026 or FY2027 | Trigger the margin deterioration downside scenario and reduce explicit operating margin forecast toward Conagra's 11.59%.3 |
| Walmart Revenue Concentration Share | Falling below 18.0% alongside category volume loss | Confirm market share loss to store brands and lower long-term terminal revenue growth from 2.0% to 1.0%. |
| Enterprise WACC and Leverage Coverage | WACC exceeding 12.24% or net debt-to-EBITDA above 4.0x | Recognize balance sheet distress on $21,219M debt and accelerate full portfolio divestment.4 |
