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Direct answer
KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $736, high $1244, with mid-point at $984.
Stock analysis

KLAC fair value $736–$1,244

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-08次回更新: 2026-08-08Methodology v2.5Review: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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株価
$1869.19
▼ -884.78 (-47.33%)
公正価値
$984
$736–$1244
評価
売り
confidence 84/100
上昇余地
-47.3%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$836.75
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$244.2B
P/E fwd 37.7
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $984 with high case $1,244.
  • Implied downside of 47.3% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 84/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Currently screens above fair value, so patience matters more than entry speed.
Fair value
$984
Margin of safety
-89.9%
Confidence
84/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$1,869.19Price
Low $735.74
Mid $984.41
High $1,243.87

KLAC trades against a final fair-value range of $735.74-$1,243.87, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Dominant market share in advanced
    Dominant market share in advanced metrology and inspection.
  • High capital intensity of advanced
    High capital intensity of advanced node defect detection.
  • Bull thesis
    Value: Extreme overvaluation relative to normalized cash flows.

§2 ベアケース

A synchronized downturn in global WFE spending combined with strict export bans on advanced metrology tools to China severely contracts near-term revenueRevenueRevenue is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions.. Elevated R&D requirements for 2nm transitions crush operating leverageLeverageThe proportion of debt in the company's capital structure. Commonly measured as Debt/EBITDA, Debt/Equity, or Net Debt/EBITDA., forcing margins well below mid-cycle averages.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

China Export Ban Expansion

· Medium

Complete restriction on all tier-1 process control equipment sales to Chinese foundries, eliminating a high-margin revenue vector.

FV impact
High
Trigger
12-24 months

WFE Cyclical Collapse

· Medium

Prolonged memory and foundry capex freeze delays 2nm and advanced packaging ramps, stalling KLA's growth trajectory.

FV impact
High
Trigger
6-18 months

Margin Compression via R&D

· Low

Defect detection at angstrom levels demands exponentially higher R&D, structurally degrading peak operating margins below 35%.

FV impact
Moderate
Trigger
24-36 months
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Consecutive quarters of declining WFE capex forecasts.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Increased stringency in US Department of Commerce export controls.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Sequential operating margin degradation below 38%.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Delay in major foundry 2nm production schedules.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Deceleration in advanced packaging (CoWoS) capacity expansion.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期間2021-06-302022-06-302023-06-302024-06-302025-06-30Trend
売上高—$9.21B$10.50B$9.81B$12.16B+7.2%
売上総利益—$5.62B$6.28B$5.88B$7.40B+7.1%
営業利益—$3.65B$3.99B$3.64B$5.01B+8.2%
純利益—$3.32B$3.39B$2.76B$4.06B+5.2%
EPS (希薄化後)$13.37$21.92$24.15$20.28—+11.0%
EBITDA—$4.01B$4.50B$3.90B$5.34B+7.4%
研究開発—$1.11B$1.30B$1.28B$1.36B+5.3%
販管費—$860.0M$986.3M$969.5M$1.03B+4.6%

品質スコア

Piotroski F-スコア
9 / 9
0–9 品質コンポジット
Altman Zスコア
14.61
倒産リスク (>3 で安全)
Beneish Mスコア
-2.25
利益操作リスク
OCF / 純利益
1.01×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Pass
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
36.2%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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REVENUE FAQ

KLAC revenue questions

  1. KLAC (KLAC)'s revenue growth is reported year-over-year across the most recent five fiscal years, with the deceleration or acceleration curve called out in the numbers-analysis subsection of the parent financials tab.

FAQ

KLAC — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, KLAC looks meaningfully overvalued. The current price is $1869 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $984 (range $736–$1244), which implies roughly 47.3% downside to the midpoint.

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