Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)

NYSE: LUV · USD

$43.5

+0.03 (+0.1%)· Recorded snapshot

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StockMarketAgent Research · Analyzed 2026-10-10

Our latest published analysis: LUV rated Hold

Southwest Airlines Co.'s published Hold conclusion compares the analysis-date price with fair value and potential value. Read the full report for assumptions, evidence, and material risks.

Fair value

$39.5 / share

Potential value

$60.5 / share

Upside to FV

-5.1%

from $43.5

Moat

4/10

None

Read full analysis →View archive · 24mo

9-phase methodology · same model in each published edition

Market cap	$20.4B
Revenue (ttm)	31.5B
Net income (ttm)	1.1B
EPS (ttm)	$2.04
Shares out	489.6M
P/E (trailing)	21.3x
P/E (forward)	8.3x
Dividend	$0.72 (1.66%)
Volume	4,850,114
Beta	1.15

Market data

Price

Recent price action with selectable time range.

Financial snapshot

Revenue (ttm): 31.5B
Net income (ttm): 1.1B
EPS (ttm): $2.04
P/E (trailing): 21.3x
P/E (forward): 8.3x
Market cap: $20.4B

Item	P1	P2	P3	P4	P5	Trend
Period	2021-12-31	2022-12-31	2023-12-31	2024-12-31	2025-12-31	Trend
Revenue	$15.79B	$23.81B	$26.09B	$27.48B	$28.06B	+15.5%
Gross profit	$4.12B	$4.75B	$4.22B	$4.46B	$4.90B	+4.4%
Operating income	$1.72B	$1.02B	$224.0M	$321.0M	$428.0M	-29.4%
Net income	$977.0M	$539.0M	$465.0M	$465.0M	$441.0M	-18.0%
EPS (diluted)	$1.61	$0.87	$0.76	$0.76	$0.79	-16.3%
EBITDA	$3.03B	$2.38B	$2.39B	$2.47B	$2.24B	-7.3%
R&D	—	—	—	—	—	—
SG&A	$2.20B	$3.51B	$3.73B	$14.13B	$14.19B	+59.3%

Ticker	Name	Market cap	P/E	P/S	ROIC	5Y rev CAGR	1Y total return	Rating
AAL	American Airlines Group Inc.	8.3B	—	0.1x	3.0%	+20.0%	-6.9%	ホールド
ALB	Albemarle Corporation	11.4B	198.9x	1.9x	4.1%	+12.8%	+1.9%	ホールド
ANET	Arista Networks Inc.	235.7B	59.1x	22.4x	284.8%	+32.0%	+19.7%	売り
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	113B	25.3x	5.1x	62.8%	+7.7%	+4.5%	ホールド
ALLE	Allegion plc	15.2B	22.5x	3.5x	19.4%	+8.8%	+7.2%	ホールド
AME	AMETEK Inc.	56.9B	36.3x	7.2x	13.2%	+9.8%	+33.6%	売り

Base and Bull scenarios

Base55%

Price target

$39.52

-5.1% from spot

Under the base case, with an assigned probability of 55.0%, Southwest executes its planned commercial overhaul, sustaining unit revenue gains and achieving mid-cycle operating margins near target levels. The model targets a valuation of $39.52, delivering an implied return of -5.1% relative to $41.66 (as of 2026-10-09). Disconfirmation would occur if third quarter unit revenues decelerate rapidly or if non-fuel operating expense growth persistently exceeds management projections, which would become apparent across upcoming fiscal year results.

Commercial fee initiatives and assigned seating sustain unit revenue yield gains.
Operating margins expand from FY2025 trough toward mid-cycle targets.
Capacity growth remains disciplined while fleet renewal capital intensity normalizes.

Bull20%

Price target

$60.50

+45.2% from spot

Under the bull case, with an assigned probability of 20.0%, commercial monetization exceeds internal expectations as premium seating sell-up accelerates, co-branded credit card growth maintains double-digit momentum, and constrained industry seat capacity supports elevated passenger yields. This trajectory drives the valuation toward $60.50, representing an implied return of 45.2% against $41.66 (as of 2026-10-09) and aligning with Potential value of $60.50. Disconfirmation would occur if competitive fare discounting re-emerges or if loyalty acquisition velocity weakens.

Premium cabin sell-up and fee unbundling exceed internal projections.
Operating margins expand beyond prior peak levels supported by prolonged industry supply restraint.
Co-branded loyalty card remuneration accelerates at a double-digit pace.

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($39.52). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.

Ke ↓ / g →	1.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
9.0%	$40.8	$42.0	$43.3	$44.8	$46.6
9.5%	$39.1	$40.2	$41.3	$42.6	$44.1
10.0%	$37.6	$38.5	$39.5	$40.7	$41.9
10.5%	$36.3	$37.1	$37.9	$38.9	$40.0
11.0%	$35.0	$35.7	$36.5	$37.3	$38.3

Scorecard

Published factor rows and weighted composite

Calendar

Next earnings

Upcoming earnings date and setup when available.

Upcoming

DateLoading

Window—

EPS estimate—

Revenue estimate—

Sector percentile context

Refreshed 2026-10-28 19:55 UTC

Forward P/E8.3

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Trailing P/E26

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROE13.9

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

ROIC10.7

P25 n/aP50 n/aP75 n/a

Benchmarks · 1M

All LUV indicators

Market & fundamental data

Available fields

276

Groups with data

Currency

USD

Showing 276 of 276 available metrics for this ticker.

Profile and market data

Ticker identity, listing, currency, market cap, and source dates.

Metric	Value
Amount currency	USD
CIK code	0000092380
Company name	Southwest Airlines Co.
Country	United States
Country code	US
CUSIP number	844741108
Earnings date	2026-10-21
Earnings time	amc
Employees	73,456
Employees change	1,214
Employees growth	1.68%
Enterprise value	$24.5B
Exchange	NYSE
Financial currency	USD
Financial report date	2026-09-30
First seen	2026-05-09
Fiscal year end	December
Founded	1967
In index	SP500
Industry	Airlines
Is primary listing	Yes
Is SPAC	No
ISIN number	US8447411088
Last 10-K release date	2026-02-05
Last earnings date	2026-10-21
Last refreshed	2026-10-28
Last stock split date	2001-02-16
Last stock split type	Forward
Market cap	$21.3B
Market cap category	Large-Cap
Next earnings date	2027-01-27
Options	Yes
Price	$43.47
Price currency	USD
Sector	Industrials
SIC code	4512
Stock price date	2026-10-28
Symbol	LUV
U.S. state	Texas
Website	https://www.southwest.com

Valuation

Multiples, yields, enterprise-value ratios, and valuation checks.

Metric	Value
Adjusted P/E ratio	16.53x
Average P/E ratio (10Y)	901.98x
Average P/E ratio (3Y)	53.85x
Average P/E ratio (5Y)	44.45x
Earnings yield	4.7%
EV/Earnings	23.39x
EV/EBIT	17.17x
EV/EBITDA	9.17x
EV/Sales	0.78x
FCF / EV yield	-1.83%
FCF yield	-2.1%
Forward EV/Sales	0.69x
Forward P/E	13.38x
Forward P/S	0.6x
Graham number	26.22705
Graham upside	-39.94%
Industry forward P/E	14.1x
Industry P/E	16.85x
Lynch fair value	$51.06
Lynch upside	16.92%
P/B ratio	2.9x
P/E ratio	21.28x
P/OCF ratio	7.76x
P/S ratio	0.68x
PEG ratio	0.17x
Price / tangible book value	3.53x
Price/EBITDA ratio	7.96x
Sector forward P/E	26.24x
Sector P/E	40.28x

Profitability

Margins, returns on capital, cash conversion, and quality metrics.

Metric	Value
EBIT margin	4.55%
EBITDA margin	8.51%
Effective tax rate	22.23%
Gross margin	22.14%
Operating margin	4.55%
Pretax margin	4.29%
Profit margin	3.34%
Profit per employee	$14,335
Profitable quarters	6
Profitable years	5
Revenue per employee	$429,454
ROA	3.05%
ROA (5Y)	0.32%
ROCE	8.54%
ROE	13.94%
ROE (5Y)	5.78%
ROIC	10.75%
ROIC (5Y)	1.4%
Tax / revenue	0.95%

Growth

Revenue, earnings, cash-flow, and forward growth indicators.

Metric	Value
EPS growth	207.11%
EPS growth (Q)	450%
EPS growth (QoQ)	17.02%
EPS growth 10Y	-5.29%
EPS growth 3Y	36.16%
EPS growth quarters	4
EPS growth years	1
Gross profit growth	18.79%
Gross profit growth (Q)	16.8%
Gross profit growth 3Y	6.23%
Gross profit growth 5Y	65.71%
Net income growth	177.84%
Net income growth (Q)	400%
Net income growth (QoQ)	15.88%
Net income growth 3Y	28.44%
Net income growth 5Y	302.24%
Net income growth quarters	4
Net income growth years	0
OCF growth	36.18%
OCF growth (Q)	78.75%
OCF growth (QoQ)	-3.21%
OCF growth 10Y	-3.44%
OCF growth 3Y	-6.01%
OCF growth 5Y	13.25%
Operating income growth	381.21%
Operating income growth (Q)	980%
Operating income growth 3Y	70.37%
Revenue growth	14.5%
Revenue growth (Q)	21.2%
Revenue growth (QoQ)	-0.12%
Revenue growth 10Y	4.49%
Revenue growth 3Y	7.43%
Revenue growth 5Y	19.86%
Revenue growth quarters	5
Revenue growth years	5

Financial statements

Income-statement and cash-flow amounts, totals and per share.

Metric	Value
Capital expenditures	$-3.2B
Depreciation and amortization	$1.3B
EBIT	$1.4B
EBITDA	$2.7B
EPS	$2.04
FCF per share	$-0.92
Financing cash flow	$222M
Free cash flow	$-450M
Gross profit	$7B
Income taxes	$301M
Investing cash flow	$-2.3B
Net borrowing	$1.9B
Net cash flow	$722M
Net income	$1.1B
Operating income	$1.4B
Revenue	$31.5B

Financial strength

Debt, cash, solvency, accounting-quality, and balance-sheet signals.

Metric	Value
Altman Z-Score	2.21
Book value per share	$14.97
Debt / EBITDA	1.27
Debt / equity	0.94
Goodwill	$970M
Interest coverage	7.92
Long-term assets	$24B
Long-term liabilities	$9.5B
Net cash (debt)	$-3.2B
Net cash / market cap	-15.19%
Net debt / EBITDA	1.21
Net debt / equity	0.44
Piotroski F-Score	7
Property, plant and equipment	$21.3B
Shareholders' equity	$7.3B
Tangible book value	$6.1B
Tangible book value per share	$12.38
Total assets	$30.5B
Total cash	$3.6B
Total debt	$6.9B
Total liabilities	$23.2B
WACC	8.52%

Liquidity

Current-asset coverage and working-capital efficiency metrics.

Metric	Value
Asset turnover	1.07
Current assets	$6.5B
Current liabilities	$13.7B
Current ratio	0.47
Inventory turnover	27.46
Net working capital	$-8.4B
Quick ratio	0.36
Working capital	$-7.2B
Working capital turnover	-4.92

Dividends and buybacks

Dividend yield, payout, buybacks, and shareholder-yield indicators.

Metric	Value
Buyback yield / dilution	9.84%
Dividend growth	0%
Dividend growth (10Y)	7.48%
Dividend growth (3Y)	0%
Dividend growth (5Y)	31.95%
Dividend growth years	0
Dividend payment date	2026-09-24
Dividend payment years	4
Dividend payout frequency	Quarterly
Dividend per share	$0.72
Dividend yield	1.66%
Ex-dividend date	2026-09-03
Last dividend	$0.18
Payout ratio	35.25%
Shareholder yield	11.5%

Performance and technicals

Returns, volatility, beta, momentum, RSI, and moving-average context.

Metric	Value
10Y price change	10.68%
10Y return CAGR	2.28%
10Y total return	25.29%
150-day SMA	$42.58
15Y price change	390.73%
15Y return CAGR	12.37%
15Y total return	474.77%
1D price change	0.06%
1M price change	1.76%
1M total return	1.76%
1W price change	9.53%
1W total return	9.53%
1Y price change	34.67%
1Y return CAGR	37.1%
1Y total return	37.07%
20-day SMA	$41.31
200-day SMA	$43.45
20Y price change	184.41%
20Y return CAGR	6.25%
20Y total return	235.85%
3M price change	-4.3%
3M total return	-3.85%
3Y price change	94.41%
3Y return CAGR	27.49%
3Y total return	107.25%
50-day SMA	$40.65
50-day SMA vs 200-day SMA	50under200
52-week high	$55.11
52-week high date	2026-02-17
52-week low	$29.26
52-week low date	2025-11-04
5Y price change	-6.74%
5Y return CAGR	0.31%
5Y total return	1.58%
6M price change	13.69%
6M total return	14.72%
After-hours change	0.03%
After-hours close	$43.47
After-hours price	$43.48
All-time high	$66.99
All-time high date	2017-12-21
All-time low	$0.03
All-time low date	1975-12-02
Average true range (ATR)	$1.50
Average volume	6.6M
Beta (1Y)	1.39
Beta (2Y)	1.34
Beta (5Y)	1.15
Change from 52-week high	-21.13%
Change from 52-week low	48.55%
Change from all-time high	-35.16%
Change from all-time low	165,663.36%
Change from open	-0.06%
Day's gap	0.12%
Dollar volume	$210.8M
High price	$44.15
Low price	$43.16
Monthly RSI	55.04
Open price	$43.49
Position in 52-week range	30.81%
Premarket change	-1.1%
Premarket close	$43.44
Premarket price	$42.96
Premarket volume	4.4K
Previous close	$43.44
Price vs 150-day SMA	2.01%
Price vs 20-day SMA	5.12%
Price vs 200-day SMA	-0.05%
Price vs 50-day SMA	6.84%
Relative volume	0.73
RSI	61.01
Sharpe ratio	0.84
Sharpe ratio (3Y)	0.63
Sharpe ratio (5Y)	0.07
Sortino ratio	1.55
Sortino ratio (3Y)	1.08
Sortino ratio (5Y)	0.24
Volume	4.9M
Weekly RSI	52.61
YTD price change	5.08%
YTD total return	6.49%

Ownership and float

Institutional, insider, float, short-interest, and share-count fields.

Metric	Value
Float	484.5M
Float percentage	98.96%
Shares change (QoQ)	0.2%
Shares change (YoY)	-9.84%
Shares held by insiders	0.93%
Shares held by institutions	95.17%
Shares outstanding	489.6M
Short % of float	5.07%
Short % of shares	5.01%
Short ratio	4.1 days

Deeper analysis on LUV

14 sections in the full report · jump straight to what you need

Forecast

Base and Bull forecast paths with report-date return framing.

→

Valuation

Fair-value bridge, DCF, owner earnings, and peer multiples.

→

Sensitivity

Cost-of-equity and terminal-growth stress table.

→

Risks

Kill scenarios, soft-pass flags, and downside catalysts.

→

Earnings

Next earnings setup and beat / inline / miss thresholds.

→

Position sizing

Entry, exit, conviction, and quarterly monitoring rules.

→

Financials

Revenue, margins, cash flow, and balance-sheet context.

→

Peers

Relative valuation and profitability against the cohort.

→

Moat

Economic-profit evidence and competitive advantage risk.

→

Industry cycle

Sector phase, capital cycle, and secular tailwinds.

→

Quote this valuation with its source: Fair value, Potential value and the price at analysis.

Frequently asked questions

About this LUV report

What is the latest published LUV stock rating?

Southwest Airlines Co. is shown with Hold in the latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-10. The hub links directly to the full analysis surface where the dated rating, fair-value bridge, risks, and scorecard are documented together.

Where can I read the full LUV analysis?

The full latest published report, analyzed 2026-10-10, lives at /stocks/LUV/analysis. The bare ticker page summarizes that read and links to each analysis tab; earlier editions remain under /analysis/archive.

What fair value is used for LUV?

The latest published report analyzed 2026-10-10 gives LUV a fair value of USD 40 and a potential value of USD 61. These are dated research outputs, not live market prices; review the valuation assumptions, sensitivity analysis, and material risks before making a decision.

How often is the LUV page updated?

The hub selects the latest published stock report regardless of age and displays its analysis date (2026-10-10). Separately sourced market data is labeled with its own recorded timestamp and is never inferred from the report.

HoldLUV · Fair value $39.5-5.1%

Read full analysis →

Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)

Our latest published analysis: LUV rated Hold

Price

Financial snapshot

Fair-value bridge

Latest news · LUV

Valuation

Profitability

Balance sheet

Trading

Base and Bull scenarios

Sensitivity: Ke × terminal growth

Scorecard

Next earnings

Sector percentile context

All LUV indicators

Profile and market data

Valuation

Profitability

Growth

Financial statements

Financial strength

Liquidity

Dividends and buybacks

Performance and technicals

Ownership and float

Deeper analysis on LUV

Frequently asked questions

レーティング履歴

Category	Score	Reading
Valuation	4.5
Management	6.5
Balance Sheet	3.0
Profitability	5.0
Revenue Growth	7.5
Risk Assessment	5.0
Competitive Moat	4.0
Earnings Quality	9.0
Capital Efficiency	2.5