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Bull: Accelerating international footprint growth, expanding co-branded credit card fees, and enduring pricing power structurally elevate margins and support mid-teens EPS compounding.
Interest Rate Shock & Refinancing Squeeze: Cost of debt spikes on the $17B load, forcing cash diversion from the buyback engine to debt service, collapsing the EPS accretion thesis.
Marriott International operates an elite asset-light lodging franchise model, leveraging global scale and the Bonvoy loyalty network to generate high returns on invested capital and robust free cash flow. Despite executing highly accretive buybacks, the current market valuation aggressively overprices these fundamentals, completely ignoring downside lodging cycle risks.
Marriott International operates an elite asset-light lodging franchise model, leveraging global scale and the Bonvoy loyalty network to generate high returns on invested capital and robust free cash flow. Despite executing highly accretive buybacks, the current market valuation aggressively overprices these fundamentals, completely ignoring downside lodging cycle risks.
Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers.
Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power.
Global travel demand outstrips limited supply pipelines, driving aggressive ADR (Average Daily Rate) and RevPAR expansion across upscale portfolios.
Sell. The $94.5B market capitalization leaves zero margin of safety, pricing in perpetual double-digit growth while ignoring cyclical travel risks.
Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchise, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the U.S. & Canada, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates properties under JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St. Regis, EDITION, Bvlgari, Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, Autograph Collection, Renaissance Hotels, Le Méridien, Delta Hotels by Marriott, MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy, Tribute Portfolio, Gaylord Hotels, Design Hotels, Marriott Executive Apartments, Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy, Courtyard by Marriott, Fairfield by Marriott, Residence Inn by Marriott, SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Four Points by Sheraton, TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Aloft Hotels, AC Hotels by Marriott, Moxy Hotels, Element Hotels, Protea Hotels by Marriott, citizen, City Express by Marriott, and Four Points Flex by Sheraton brand names, as well as operates residences, timeshares, and yachts. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
A severe macroeconomic contraction compresses RevPAR, while sustained high interest rates raise the cost of servicing $17B in debt, forcing a halt to share buybacks and destroying EPS growth momentum.
A prolonged macroeconomic slowdown stalls RevPAR growth, while structural heavy debt loads ($17B) and higher interest rates restrict share buybacks and compress equity valuations.
Cost of debt spikes on the $17B load, forcing cash diversion from the buyback engine to debt service, collapsing the EPS accretion thesis.
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Underperforming top-line expansion indicates enterprise travel budget reductions and consumer lodging weakness, curbing base and incentive management fee income across franchised properties.
現在:Revenue growth was 4.3% for the period ended 2025-12-31
警戒条件Falls below 2.0% for two consecutive fiscal quarters
Dominant Bonvoy loyalty ecosystem locking in high-value corporate travelers.
Global scale and brand portfolio yielding immense pricing power.
Asset-light franchise model generating highly recurring fee streams.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted , discount each year's earnings at , then add a Gordon-growth .
Unavailable
The highlighted base cell is anchored to composite fair-value midpoint ($227.84). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $3.2B after capex $602.3M, with terminal value at 57.8% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.
Accelerating international footprint growth, expanding co-branded credit card fees, and enduring pricing power structurally elevate margins and support mid-teens EPS compounding.
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
If near-term RevPAR growth fails to achieve the 6.4% hurdle, expect violent multiple compression given the 37x trailing P/E. If interest expenses scale up and interrupt buyback pacing, EPS internal valuation cross-check will miss aggressively.
Warning level: Falls below 2.0% for two consecutive fiscal quarters. Underperforming top-line expansion indicates enterprise travel budget reductions and consumer lodging weakness, curbing base and incentive management fee income across franchised properties.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| 売上高 | 26,186,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | 20,964,000,000 |
| 売上総利益 | 5,222,000,000 |
| 営業費用 | 1,083,000,000 |
| 営業利益 | 4,139,000,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -1,538,000,000 |
| 純利益 | 2,601,000,000 |
| 総資産 | 27,540,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | 358,000,000 |
| 流動資産 | 3,584,000,000 |
| 負債合計 | 31,311,000,000 |
| 流動負債 | 8,398,000,000 |
| 株主資本欠損 | 3,771,000,000 |
2026-05-20の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-12-31 | 207.7億 | 39.2億 | 23.6億 | 23.6億 | 20.3億 | 3.3億 | 4億 | 1.9億 | 25.7億 | 3.2億 | -300万 | — | — | — | — | 5.1億 | 111億 | 16.7% | — | 9.6% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 237.1億 | 43.8億 | 30.8億 | 31.7億 | 27.2億 | 4.5億 | 4.4億 | 2.1億 | 39.5億 | 5.9億 | 17.8億 | — | — | — | — | 3.4億 | 127.6億 | 16.5% | — | 10.1% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 251億 | 43.4億 | 23.8億 | 27.5億 | 20億 | 7.5億 | 4.9億 | 2.4億 | 37.6億 | 6.8億 | 25.5億 | — | — | — | — | 4億 | 152.4億 | 15.3% | — | 10.7% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 261.9億 | 48億 | 26億 | 32.1億 | 26.1億 | 6億 | 6億 | 2.4億 | 33億 | 7.2億 | 17.2億 | — | — | — | — | 3.6億 | 170.8億 | 15.8% | — | 8.7% | — |
MAR trades at 27.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 26.4x; EV/EBITDA of 23.6x against a peer median of 18.5x; 6 peers.
Operating in a normal asset-light phase. Property-level capital expenditures are borne by franchisees, while corporate free cash flow is almost entirely directed toward share repurchases.
Global travel demand outstrips limited supply pipelines, driving aggressive ADR (Average Daily Rate) and RevPAR expansion across upscale portfolios.
Macroeconomic tightening slashes discretionary consumer travel and corporate group bookings, directly impacting fee generation.
Operating in a normal asset-light phase. Property-level capital expenditures are borne by franchisees, while corporate free cash flow is almost entirely directed toward share repurchases.
Avoid allocation. The massive 36% downside to the base case provides zero margin of safety for fundamental allocators.
Liquidate current holdings into market strength. The implied >15% perpetual growth rate represents extreme structural overvaluation.
Upside case depends on the report valuation range and named growth catalysts.
While Marriott operates an exceptional, moat-protected franchise model, the stock trades at a staggering premium to unlevered free cash flows. Sustained, flawless execution is entirely priced in, leaving investors vulnerable to cyclical mean reversion.
Sell. Unfavorable risk/reward asymmetry is driven by stretched multiples, cycle-peak assumptions, and a massive gap to intrinsic fundamental value.
Reassess the thesis against the named valuation, risk, and quarterly checkpoint evidence in this report.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Market pivots from pricing MAR as a perpetual compounder to a cyclical lodging stock, instantly closing the gap to the intrinsic $227.84 fair value.
Permanent downward shift in enterprise travel budgets reduces high-margin group bookings, structurally compressing system-wide RevPAR.
警戒条件Exceeds 4.0x for two consecutive quarters
Halting share repurchases eliminates a core pillar of per-share earnings growth, signaling cash flow diversion toward debt refinancing and removing critical valuation support.
現在:Active share repurchase program as of 2026-05-20
警戒条件Formal board suspension or greater than 50.0% reduction in annual share repurchases
A shrinking room pipeline limits unit growth expansion and curbs long-term franchise royalty compounding, constraining future earnings potential independent of cyclical occupancy fluctuations.
現在:Active global room addition pipeline as of 2026-05-20
警戒条件Contracts by more than 5.0% year-over-year over any twelve-month period
Weakening loyalty participation shifts booking distribution toward high-cost online travel agencies, eroding owner operating margins and reducing the attractiveness of new franchise conversions.
現在:Active Bonvoy loyalty platform engagement as of 2026-05-20
警戒条件Sustains a 10.0% or greater year-over-year decline in active member direct bookings
| Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
| Prolonged corporate travel budget optimization structurally reducing group volume. | medium | Monitor | Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Marriott maintains asset-light operating leverage and steady cash flows, but the current market valuation excessively pulls forward perpetual growth, necessitating a sharp multiple contraction to align with fundamentals.
Warning level: Exceeds 4.0x for two consecutive quarters. Elevated financial debt increases debt service burdens during high interest rate environments, restricting financial flexibility and forcing management to curtail shareholder capital returns.
Warning level: Formal board suspension or greater than 50.0% reduction in annual share repurchases. Halting share repurchases eliminates a core pillar of per-share earnings growth, signaling cash flow diversion toward debt refinancing and removing critical valuation support.
Warning level: Contracts by more than 5.0% year-over-year over any twelve-month period. A shrinking room pipeline limits unit growth expansion and curbs long-term franchise royalty compounding, constraining future earnings potential independent of cyclical occupancy fluctuations.
Warning level: Sustains a 10.0% or greater year-over-year decline in active member direct bookings. Weakening loyalty participation shifts booking distribution toward high-cost online travel agencies, eroding owner operating margins and reducing the attractiveness of new franchise conversions.
| マージン |
|---|
| MAR | Marriott International Inc. | $94.6B | 27.4x | 13.2x | 23.6x | — | — |
| HLT | Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | 30.3x | 14.2x | 28.1x | — | 57.4% | |
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | 26.4x | 3.8x | 18.5x | 24.3% | 13.1% | |
| TSLA | Tesla Inc. | 161.0x | 15.5x | 134.3x | 4.9% | 4.2% | |
| HD | The Home Depot Inc. | 18.7x | 1.8x | 14.6x | 145.5% | 10.1% | |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | 19.7x | 7.3x | 17.0x | — | 44.3% |
