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MDLZ trades against a final fair-value range of $54.61-$86.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs. Fair value range: low $54.6, high $86.0, with mid-point at $70.1.
Stock analysis

MDLZ fair value $55–$86

By StockMarketAgent.AI team· supervised by
分析日: 2026-05-20次回更新: 2026-08-20Methodology v2.4Data cut-off: Quality gate: passSources: all material sources passed deterministic freshness/provenance gatesReview: automatedArchetype: Mature compounder
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株価
$61.29
▲ +8.82 (+14.39%)
公正価値
$70
$55–$86
評価
買い
confidence 82/100
上昇余地
+14.4%
upside to fair value
安全余裕率
$59.59
MoS level · 15%
時価総額
$78.7B
P/E fwd 18.1
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§1 エグゼクティブサマリー

  • Composite fair value $70 with high case $86.
  • Implied upside of 14.4% to fair value.
  • Moat 9/10 · confidence 82/100 · Mature compounder.
  • Trades at a measured discount to fair value with adequate margin of safety.
Fair value
$70
Margin of safety
+12.6%
Confidence
82/100
Moat
9/10

Educational analysis only — not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence.

$61.29Price
Low $54.61
Mid $70.11
High $86.01

MDLZ trades against a final fair-value range of $54.61-$86.01, with the midpoint set by the accepted valuation synthesis rather than earlier draft model outputs.

  • Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury,
    Intangible brand equity (Oreo, Cadbury, Ritz)
  • Unmatched global distribution scale
    Unmatched global distribution scale
  • Cycle upside
    Consumer resilience allows dominant brands to retain elevated pricing even as input costs normalize, driving outsized margin expansion.

§2 ベアケース

Persistent inflation in key inputs like cocoa, coupled with consumer down-trading to private label alternatives, compresses gross margins and stalls EPS growthEPS growthYear-over-year change in diluted earnings per share. The bottom-line growth rate that drives shareholder return when multiples are stable.. In this scenario, the market violently re-rates the terminal multipleTerminal multipleThe exit P/E or EV/EBITDA we apply to the final year of an explicit forecast. Anchored to the business's long-run quality and the prevailing risk-free rate. down to 15x as structural growth assumptions deteriorate.

このテーゼが崩れる経路

Cocoa Super-Cycle Exhaustion

· Medium

Raw material costs structurally step up, entirely neutralizing pricing levers and crushing gross margins beyond the firm's hedging capacity.

FV impact
-15% to intrinsic value
Trigger
12 to 24 months

Private Label Defection

· Medium

Global consumers permanently shift to generic snacking alternatives, causing an unrecoverable impairment to organic volume growth and brand equity.

FV impact
-22% to intrinsic value
Trigger
24 to 36 months

GLP-1 Demand Disruption

· Low

Widespread global adoption of appetite-suppressing pharmaceuticals permanently shrinks the total addressable market for impulse consumer snacking.

FV impact
-30% to intrinsic value
Trigger
3 to 5 years
監視すべき早期警戒シグナル
指標現在トリガーしきい値
Operating cash flow to net income conversion drops sustainably below 1.0x.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Forward 3-year organic volume growth turns strictly negative.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Gross margin compresses by more than 150 basis points year-over-year.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
SG&A expenses consistently outpace organic revenue growth.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis
Dividend payout ratio breaches 100% of free cash flow to firm.MonitorDeterioration versus the report thesis

§3 財務履歴

損益計算書 — 直近6期
項目T−0T−1T−2T−3T−4CAGR
期間2021-12-312022-12-312023-12-312024-12-312025-12-31Trend
売上高—$31.50B$36.02B$36.44B$38.54B+5.2%
売上総利益—$11.31B$13.76B$14.26B$10.94B-0.8%
営業利益—$3.80B$5.61B$6.67B$3.62B-1.2%
純利益—$2.72B$4.96B$4.61B$2.45B-2.5%
EPS (希薄化後)$3.04$1.96$3.62$3.42$1.89-11.2%
EBITDA—$4.76B$7.65B$8.07B$4.97B+1.1%
研究開発——————
販管費—$7.38B$8.00B$7.44B$7.17B-0.7%

品質スコア

OCF / 純利益
1.84×
>1 は利益の質が高いことを示す
会計品質ゲート
Fail
セクター調整後ゲート
ROIC
6.0%
投下資本利益率
セクション 3

Numbers analysis

キャッシュフロー

Cash-flow quality is reflected in the OCFOperating cash flowCash generated from the company's core operations after working-capital changes but before capital expenditures. The first line of the cash-flow statement. / net incomeNet IncomeNet Income is an income-statement line item used to reconcile revenue to operating profit, pre-tax income, net income, or per-share earnings. It should be compared across periods and against peer disclosure conventions., accounting-quality, and ROICROICReturn on invested capital. Operating profit (after tax) divided by invested capital. The single best gauge of capital-efficiency. Spread over WACC = economic value created. rows above.

資本配分

Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.

個人サブスクライバー — §4以降11セクション追加

完全な分析を読む — 11セクション追加。

Competitive moat, industry cycle, peer comparison, intrinsic valuation, sensitivity, scenarios, earnings decision tree, position management, investor perspectives, scorecard, and final recommendation.

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INCOME STATEMENT FAQ

MDLZ income statement questions

  1. Our financial-history view of MDLZ (MDLZ) covers revenue, gross profit, operating income, and net income across the past five fiscal years, with year-over-year growth and margin context for each line.

FAQ

MDLZ — frequently asked questions

  1. Based on our latest analysis, MDLZ looks modestly undervalued. The current price is $61.3 versus a composite fair-value midpoint of $70.1 (range $54.6–$86.0), which implies roughly 14.4% upside to the midpoint.

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