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Risk: Persistent currency and political exposures are the primary downside drivers.
Persistent currency and political exposures emerge across primary operating markets.
MercadoLibre is the undisputed leader in Latin American e-commerce and digital payments, possessing a robust ecosystem moat that scales with regional digitization. The business is currently transitioning toward high-margin advertising and financial services, supported by a massive logistics infrastructure.
MercadoLibre is the undisputed leader in Latin American e-commerce and digital payments, possessing a robust ecosystem moat that scales with regional digitization. The business is currently transitioning toward high-margin advertising and financial services, supported by a massive logistics infrastructure.
Logistics network (Mercado Envios) creates massive switching costs via same-day/next-day delivery speeds.
Fintech ecosystem (Mercado Pago) captures unbanked populations, creating a self-reinforcing float and data loop.
High-conviction growth compounder with elite execution and significant valuation upside.
MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and internationally. The company operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an online commerce platform that can be accessed through mobile app or website; and Mercado Pago, a financial technology solution platform, which offers comprehensive set of financial technology services to users and other users of its e-commerce platform. It also provides Mercado Fondo that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts; Mercado Credito, which grants loans and obtains better funding alternatives; and Mercado Mercado Envios that facilitates the shipping of goods from the Company and sellers to buyers. In addition, the company provides Mercado Libre Classifieds, where users can list vehicles, properties, and services; Mercado Ads, an advertising platform, which enables retailers and brands to promote their products and services on the platform. MercadoLibre, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.
Under a 50% regional currency devaluation and 10% volume contraction, the model shifts toward the owner earnings floor of $1,508.
Macroeconomic instability and competitive intensity force a valuation reset to historical earnings floors.
Simultaneous currency collapses in Brazil and Argentina wipe out USD-denominated earnings growth and trigger capital flight.
Central bank interventions on interest rate caps or credit risk reserves significantly impair the profitability of the Mercado Pago lending engine.
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Sharp deceleration in top-line growth would indicate macro exhaustion in core Latin American markets and weakening fintech commerce adoption, invalidating high-growth expectations and triggering multiple contraction.
現在:39.1% for the period ended 2025-12-31
警戒条件Decelerates below 15.0% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters
Logistics network (Mercado Envios) creates massive switching costs via same-day/next-day delivery speeds.
Fintech ecosystem (Mercado Pago) captures unbanked populations, creating a self-reinforcing float and data loop.
Marketplace network effects benefit from undisputed leadership in key Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina territories.
Ad-tech scaling utilizes proprietary first-party data to drive high-margin revenue growth.
Economic profit is supported when reported returns exceed the company cost-of-capital hurdle.
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
Project SBC-adjusted , discount each year's earnings at , then add a Gordon-growth .
Unavailable
The highlighted base cell is anchored to valuation synthesis sensitivity reference ($2,600.21). It is the reference value for this grid, not a separate standalone fair-value claim.
FCFF DCF remains positive at the base case: base FCFF $2.5B after capex $462.3M, with terminal value at 67.1% of enterprise value. No FCF cliff is projected unless capex/revenue or gross margin materially resets.
Hyper-scaling of high-margin services leads to massive margin expansion and premium multiple retention.
Prioritize TPV growth and Fintech margin expansion; discount quarterly GAAP volatility driven by ARS/BRL translation.
Prioritize TPV growth and Fintech margin expansion; discount quarterly GAAP volatility driven by ARS/BRL translation.
Prioritize TPV growth and Fintech margin expansion; discount quarterly GAAP volatility driven by ARS/BRL translation.
Prioritize TPV growth and Fintech margin expansion; discount quarterly GAAP volatility driven by ARS/BRL translation.
Warning level: Decelerates below 15.0% year-over-year for two consecutive quarters. Sharp deceleration in top-line growth would indicate macro exhaustion in core Latin American markets and weakening fintech commerce adoption, invalidating high-growth expectations and triggering multiple contraction.
Capital allocation should be evaluated against reinvestment needs, balance-sheet strength, and shareholder returns.
| 売上高 | 28,893,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | 16,035,000,000 |
| 売上総利益 | 12,858,000,000 |
| 営業費用 | 9,657,000,000 |
| 営業利益 | 3,201,000,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -1,204,000,000 |
| 純利益 | 1,997,000,000 |
| 総資産 | 42,667,000,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | 3,670,000,000 |
| 流動資産 | 33,573,000,000 |
| 負債合計 | 35,919,000,000 |
| 流動負債 | 28,633,000,000 |
| 株主資本 | 6,748,000,000 |
2026-05-20の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-12-31 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 75.5万 | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-31 | 107.8億 | 13.2億 | 4.8億 | 29.4億 | 24.9億 | 4.6億 | 4億 | 100万 | 1.5億 | 0 | 10.6億 | — | — | — | — | 19.1億 | 54.1億 | 9.9% | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-31 | 151.1億 | 22.5億 | 9.9億 | 51.4億 | 46.3億 | 5.1億 | 5.2億 | 1.7億 | 3.6億 | — | 8900万 | — | — | — | — | 25.6億 | 53.3億 | 14.6% | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-31 | 207.8億 | 32.1億 | 19.1億 | 79.2億 | 70.6億 | 8.6億 | 6.2億 | — | 100万 | — | 19.6億 | — | — | — | — | 26.4億 | 68.5億 | 12.7% | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-31 | 288.9億 | 38.2億 | 20億 | 121.2億 | 107.7億 | 13.4億 | 8.2億 | — | 100万 | — | 29.1億 | — | — | — | — | 36.7億 | 113.9億 | 11.1% | — | — | — |
MELI trades at 27.0x forward earnings against a peer median of 16.9x; EV/EBITDA of 22.2x against a peer median of 18.1x; 6 peers.
The industry is currently in an intensive investment phase for logistics and fintech infrastructure, favoring incumbents with internal cash generation.
Latin American e-commerce penetration remains below 15%, providing a decade-long tailwind for digitization.
High interest rates in emerging markets increase the cost of credit and suppress discretionary consumer spending.
The industry is currently in an intensive investment phase for logistics and fintech infrastructure, favoring incumbents with internal cash generation.
Core growth holding; size appropriately for emerging market macro-volatility and currency risk.
Trim if e-commerce market share durably declines or if OCF-to-NI conversion trends below 2.0x.
Quality: Elite cash flow conversion and dominant market position.
Strong Buy. The ecosystem moat and fintech scaling are under-priced by current market macro-concerns.
Upside case: Risk: Persistent currency and political exposures are the primary downside drivers.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
Global competitors achieve logistics parity through massive capital investment, eroding the primary delivery speed advantage and forcing a price war.
Intensifying competition from cross-border e-commerce platforms would force aggressive pricing subsidies and shipping discounts, compressing unit profitability and eroding the competitive moat built around proprietary logistics infrastructure.
現在:44.5% for the period ended 2025-12-31
警戒条件Declines below 40.0% over any trailing twelve-month period
Credit portfolio delinquencies and rising bad debt provisioning in the fintech segment would consume gross revenues and impair operating profitability, destroying earnings quality across key lending divisions.
現在:11.1% for the period ended 2025-12-31
警戒条件Compresses below 8.0% over two consecutive quarters
Escalating fulfillment and logistics costs would drain operational liquidity and reduce working capital advantages, undermining self-funded capital expenditures required to expand regional warehousing networks.
現在:6.067 as of 2026-05-20
警戒条件Drops below 2.0x over a four-quarter period
Losing regional market leadership to well-funded competitors in Brazil or Mexico would dilute scale advantages, leading to lower asset turnover and permanently impaired economic returns on invested capital.
現在:13.1% as of 2026-05-20
警戒条件Falls below 10.0% as of any annual reporting date
| Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
| Fintech regulatory changes impacting credit margins or interest rate spreads. | medium | Monitor | Monitor the threat against the report checkpoints. |
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
Multiply the peer median PEG by this stock's forecast growth to derive an implied forward P/E, then apply it to forward EPS.
This edition does not contain enough finite inputs to reproduce the lens calculation.
MercadoLibre maintains its undisputed leadership while gradually improving operating leverage.
Warning level: Declines below 40.0% over any trailing twelve-month period. Intensifying competition from cross-border e-commerce platforms would force aggressive pricing subsidies and shipping discounts, compressing unit profitability and eroding the competitive moat built around proprietary logistics infrastructure.
Warning level: Compresses below 8.0% over two consecutive quarters. Credit portfolio delinquencies and rising bad debt provisioning in the fintech segment would consume gross revenues and impair operating profitability, destroying earnings quality across key lending divisions.
Warning level: Drops below 2.0x over a four-quarter period. Escalating fulfillment and logistics costs would drain operational liquidity and reduce working capital advantages, undermining self-funded capital expenditures required to expand regional warehousing networks.
Warning level: Falls below 10.0% as of any annual reporting date. Losing regional market leadership to well-funded competitors in Brazil or Mexico would dilute scale advantages, leading to lower asset turnover and permanently impaired economic returns on invested capital.
| マージン |
|---|
| MELI | MercadoLibre, Inc. | $80.9B | 27.0x | 2.5x | 22.2x | — | — |
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | 26.4x | 3.8x | 18.5x | 24.3% | 13.1% | |
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| EBAY | eBay Inc. | 16.9x | 4.4x | 18.1x | 42.9% | 23.1% | |
| JD | JD.com, Inc. | 7.5x | 0.0x | 8.3x | 6.0% | 1.2% |
