任意の製品分析
許可いただいた場合、プライバシーに配慮した限定的な分析を使用し、どのリサーチ経路が有効かを把握します。広告トラッカーやセッション録画は使用しません。この選択は設定で変更できます。詳しくは プライバシーポリシー.
Operating leverage and margin expansion in Phosphates as sulfur feedstock costs deflate back toward historical averages, unlocking idled capacity at Faustina and Bartow to capture widening DAP stripping margins alongside steady cash generation from the Esterhazy potash mine.
Persistent sulfur inflation combined with prolonged contraction in Brazilian nutrient application.
The Mosaic Company is maintained at Hold with Fair value of $19.55 against $18.82, offering 3.9% upside as persistent sulfur raw material inflation and severe Brazilian demand contraction constrain near-term cash generation amidst a cyclical trough.
The Mosaic Company faces severe operational and macro headwinds as it navigates an acute cyclical trough in FY2026. Third-quarter 2026 sulfur contract settlements spiked to $705 per long ton, sharply elevating cash conversion costs in the Phosphate segment to $129 per tonne. In response, management curtailed production by idling 100% of the Faustina chemical plant and operating the Bartow facility at just 40% of target capacity, incurring $60 million of idle and unabsorbed fixed costs in Q2 2026. Concurrently, agricultural weakness across Latin America has led to an estimated 30% contraction in Brazilian crop nutrient application, causing Mosaic Fertilizantes to post an operating loss of -$41 million in Q2 2026.4
These dual pressures have severely compressed cash flow generation across the business. Consolidated was negative -$534.6 million in FY2025 and negative -$405.5 million through the first six months of 2026, while total balance sheet debt stood at $5,279.5 million as of December 31, 2025, representing a 50.4% debt weight in Mosaic's capital structure. Management has responded prudently by deferring routine plant turnaround , reducing FY2026 to $1.2 billion, and refinancing short-term paper through a $1.0 billion term loan facility.
Balancing these acute cyclical strains is the structural cash-generating power of Mosaic's Potash franchise. Centered on the low-cost Esterhazy asset base in Saskatchewan, the Potash segment delivered steady operating earnings, supported by competitive cash production costs and a fully subscribed summer fill program. At $18.82, the shares offer 3.9% upside to Fair value of $19.55. While normalized mid-cycle operating margins support eventual valuation recovery, near-term operational curtailments warrant maintaining a Hold rating.4
The Esterhazy potash facility represents one of the lowest-cost, most automated mining assets in the world, maintaining MOP cash production costs at $84 per tonne and generating dependable EBITDA ($278M in Q2 2026) across cyclical troughs.4
Global soil nutrient under-application creates agronomic yield risks that inevitably drive catch-up fertilizer buying cycles; once sulfur input costs deflate from $705/long ton, phosphate operating margins possess substantial recovery torque toward mid-cycle 8.5%-10.5% levels.4
Mosaic Fertilizantes holds irreplaceable port, blending, and distribution scale across Brazil ($4,847.3M FY2025 revenue), perfectly positioning the company to capture upside as South American crop acreage expands.7
Hold: Balanced risk/reward at $18.82 relative to Fair value of $19.55, reflecting near-term operational curtailments and raw material headwinds offset by medium-term mid-cycle recovery potential.
The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) is a leading global producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and crop nutrients, headquartered in Tampa, Florida. The company operates through three principal business segments: Phosphates, Potash, and Mosaic Fertilizantes. Mosaic serves global agricultural markets with essential crop nutrition inputs required for commercial agriculture and crop yield maximization.
The Phosphates segment owns integrated mining operations in Florida and processing facilities in Florida and Louisiana, manufacturing diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), and performance nutrition products. The Potash segment operates major low-cost shaft and solution potash mines in Saskatchewan, Canada, anchored by the Esterhazy complex. The Mosaic Fertilizantes segment operates an extensive logistics, production, and distribution network across Brazil, distributing phosphate, potash, and chemical blends to retail and commercial farmers. In addition, the emerging Mosaic Biosciences platform develops biological crop solutions.
A compound cyclical stress test evaluates the combined impact of sustained raw material price inflation, prolonged Latin American farm distress, and balance sheet leverage. In this scenario, third-quarter sulfur settlement prices of $705/long ton do not normalize in FY2027, maintaining unabsorbed fixed overhead and plant idling across Faustina (100% curtailed) and Bartow (running at 40%). Concurrently, the projected 30% reduction in Brazilian fertilizer nutrient application morphs into a multi-year farm recession, preventing Mosaic Fertilizantes ($4,847.3M FY2025 revenue) from recovering volume throughput. Under these conditions, annual free cash flow remains negative after FY2025's -$534.6M and H1 2026's -$405.5M deficit. This strains Mosaic's debt obligations ($5,279.5M total debt), widening credit spreads and driving WACC from 5.99% toward 7.99%, impairing equity intrinsic value by an estimated 28.5% to 31.5%.
In the Bear scenario, persistent refining disruptions keep global sulfur prices severely elevated, preventing phosphate conversion margins from recovering. Faustina remains fully shut down, and unabsorbed fixed overhead continues to bleed operating earnings. Concurrently, high interest rates and falling agricultural commodities prolong the Brazilian agricultural crisis, suppressing Mosaic Fertilizantes sales volumes. Persistent negative free cash flow forces Mosaic to refinance maturing debt at elevated interest rates, widening credit spreads, pushing capital costs higher, and delaying any margin recovery beyond FY2028.
Sulfur contract prices settled at $705/long ton for Q3 2026, while Faustina is 100% idled and Bartow operates at 40%. If raw material disruption persists into FY2027 and unabsorbed fixed costs remain elevated, operating margin fails to recover toward 8.5%-10.5%.4
投資判断を弱める5つの変化です。
Sulfur contract settlements remaining elevated above $700/long ton alongside extended curtailment at Bartow (running at 40%) and Faustina (100% idled), preventing fixed cost absorption and mid-cycle margin recovery.
現在:4.5% projected for FY2026 (operating loss of -$35.5M in Q2 2026)
警戒条件< 4.5% sustained through FY2027
Mosaic's narrow economic moat is underpinned by structural cost and scale advantages across its core extraction and distribution footprint. In Potash, the company's Saskatchewan operations, centered on the Esterhazy mine complex, represent one of the lowest-cost potash extraction networks globally. The deployment of automated mining machines and Hydrofloat mineral processing capacity maintains MOP cash production costs at approximately $84 per tonne, allowing the Potash segment to maintain solid profitability ($195M operating earnings in Q2 2026) and complete summer fill commitments even during broader agricultural slumps. This asset position cannot be replicated without multi-billion-dollar greenfield capital expenditure and decadal development timelines.
In Latin America, the Mosaic Fertilizantes distribution infrastructure serves as a critical commercial moat source. With $4,847.3M in FY2025 segment revenue, Mosaic commands deep supply chain integration into Brazilian crop belts through dedicated port terminals, warehousing, and blending assets. This distribution scale allows Mosaic to capture retail margin premiums and channel its own North American phosphate and potash production directly into high-growth agricultural regions, creating significant switching costs for local agronomists and retail dealers relative to unintegrated importers.
However, the durability of Mosaic's competitive advantage is structurally constrained by its exposure to global commodity raw material inputs in its Phosphate business ($3,877.8M FY2025 revenue). While captive Florida phosphate rock deposits provide domestic supply security, the production of diammonium phosphate (DAP) requires merchant sulfur and ammonia. With third-quarter sulfur contract prices spiking to $705/long ton, conversion cash margins have turned negative, forcing substantial operational curtailments at the Faustina and Bartow chemical facilities. This input price vulnerability prevents Mosaic from achieving a wide moat rating.
At the trough of the agricultural cycle in FY2025-FY2026, Mosaic generates returns on invested capital below its 5.99% weighted average cost of capital and 9.07% cost of equity, as invested capital stood at $17,138.8M at FY2025 while operating income compressed to $821.5M and turned to an operating loss of -$35.5M in Q2 2026. As operating margins normalize toward 10.0%-10.5% in FY2028-FY2030, economic profits turn positive across the cycle.256
Each lens answers a different valuation question. Only included lenses set Fair value; floors and diagnostics provide context.
The highlighted cell is Fair value when every assumption sits at its base level ($19.55). Each row and column shows what Fair value becomes when one assumption moves.
Free cash flow to the firm stays positive in the first projected year at $353.3M after modeled reinvestment of $62.3M, with terminal value at 84.9% of enterprise value. A sudden drop in free cash flow is not projected unless capital spending relative to revenue, reinvestment, or gross margin resets materially.
The Base scenario represents the modal expected path where FY2026 marks the cyclical earnings trough. Management caps FY2026 capital expenditures at $1.2B, while Esterhazy potash operations maintain low-cost production ($84/tonne cash cost). Through FY2027-FY2028, raw material prices gradually normalize from peak levels ($705/long ton Q3 sulfur), allowing Bartow and Faustina to resume higher operating rates. Operating margins recover from 4.5% in FY2026 to 8.5% in FY2027 and 10.0% in FY2028, with EPS recovering to $1.52 in FY2027 and $1.75 in FY2028, supporting our intrinsic fair value of $19.55.14
A substantial operating earnings beat driven by rapid sulfur cost deflation and operational restarts would confirm an accelerated return to mid-cycle profitability, warranting an upgrade to Buy.
Results matching trough expectations affirm that cyclical recovery remains on track but provide insufficient margin expansion to justify altering the Hold stance.
A severe miss from persistent input cost spikes and deeper demand contraction would prolong negative cash flows and threaten credit metrics, necessitating a downgrade to Reduce.
Mosaic's earnings quality at the cyclical trough is low, characterized by a substantial divergence between reported GAAP results and underlying cash generation. In Q2 2026, Mosaic reported a GAAP net loss of -$272.8M ($0.86 diluted loss per share) compared to net income of $411.0M in Q2 2025, heavily distorted by $351.0M ($0.99 per share) in notable items including a $162.0M mark-to-market loss on Ma'aden shares, $69.0M in project write-offs, and $49.0M in foreign currency losses. Although management reported adjusted EBITDA of $407.0M and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.13, operating cash flow generated was only $167.4M, which was completely outpaced by $320.3M of capital expenditures, resulting in negative free cash flow of -$152.9M. In FY2025, free cash flow was similarly negative at -$534.6M despite reported GAAP net income of $540.7M. The prevalence of non-operating adjustments and persistent free cash flow deficits reflect stressed operational earnings quality.5
Consensus earnings estimates have demonstrated sharp downward momentum leading into the current analysis date. Over the last 7 to 30 days, sell-side consensus diluted EPS for FY2026 has been revised downward by 11.4% from $0.41 to $0.37. For Q4 2026, consensus EPS estimates fell by 10.3% from $0.20 to $0.18. These downward revisions reflect spreading recognition of sustained sulfur input cost inflation ($705/long ton contract settlement for Q3) and prolonged operational curtailments at the Bartow and Faustina phosphate facilities.14
Sulfur is the key merchant feedstock determining phosphate conversion cash margins; elevated input prices force facility curtailments and depress segment gross margins.
Unabsorbed fixed overhead in cost of goods sold directly suppresses consolidated operating earnings until curtailed plants return to full utilization.
Mosaic's cash flow profile reflects severe cyclical pressure. For FY2025, cash from operations reached $824.8M, which fell short of $1,359.4M in capex, yielding -$534.6M in free cash flow. Through the first six months of 2026, operating cash flow totaled $271.6M against capital expenditures of $677.1M, generating a free cash flow deficit of -$405.5M. In Q2 2026, operating cash flow fell to $167.4M from $609.5M in Q2 2025, impacted by lower EBITDA and reduced customer prepayments in Brazil. Management anticipates cash generation to improve in late FY2026 driven by seasonal working capital release in Brazil and the guided step-down in second-half capex toward the $1.2B annual limit. Over the house forecast horizon, FCFF is modeled to recover from $353.3M in FY2026 to $620.0M in FY2027 and $708.0M in FY2028 as reinvestment rates normalize at 25%-30%.
In FY2025, operating income of $821.5M on invested capital of $17,138.8M yielded an after-tax return on capital below the cost of capital. In FY2026, trough operating margins of 4.5% generate NOPAT of $415.6M, continuing the period of economic value compression. However, as operating margins recover toward 8.5% in FY2027 and reach mid-cycle levels of 10.0%-10.5% in FY2028-FY2030, NOPAT is projected to expand from $415.6M in FY2026 to $826.7M in FY2027 and $1,121.2M by FY2030. This expansion drives a steadily improving ROIC trajectory over the five-year forecast horizon.
At the FY2026 cyclical trough, Mosaic's return on capital hovers near or below its weighted average cost of capital of 5.99% and cost of equity of 9.07%. Over the forecast path, as operating margins reach 10.0%-10.5% and NOPAT exceeds $1.0B, ROIC comfortably clears the 5.99% WACC hurdle, generating sustained economic profit.
| 売上高 | $12,052,400,000 |
|---|---|
| 売上原価 | $10,150,500,000 |
| 売上総利益 | $1,901,900,000 |
| 営業費用 | $1,080,400,000 |
| 営業利益 | $821,500,000 |
| 営業外項目および税金 | -$280,800,000 |
| 純利益 | $540,700,000 |
| 総資産 | $24,480,100,000 |
|---|---|
| 現金 | $276,600,000 |
| 流動資産 | $5,237,500,000 |
| 負債合計 | $12,245,900,000 |
| 流動負債 | $3,982,800,000 |
| 株主資本 | $12,234,200,000 |
| 純利益 | $540,700,000 |
|---|---|
| 営業キャッシュ流入 | $1,621,300,000 |
| 減価償却費 | $1,049,900,000 |
| 株式報酬 | $30,700,000 |
| 営業キャッシュフロー | $824,800,000 |
| 営業キャッシュ流出 | $796,500,000 |
| 利用可能現金 | $1,608,100,000 |
| 期首現金 | $305,000,000 |
| 財務キャッシュ流入 | $452,000,000 |
| 為替レートの影響 | $26,300,000 |
| 投資キャッシュ流出 | $1,309,500,000 |
| 期末現金 | $298,600,000 |
| 投資キャッシュフロー | -$1,309,500,000 |
| 財務キャッシュフロー | $452,000,000 |
出典: SEC EDGAR · 提出日 2026-02-27 · SEC EDGAR
| 事業セグメント別売上高 | 売上高 | 構成比 | 前年比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mosaic Fertilizantes | $48.5億 | 40.2% | 9.6% |
| Phosphates | $38.8億 | 32.2% | 2.2% |
| Potash | $26.6億 | 22.1% | 12.1% |
| Corporate Eliminations And Other | $6.7億 | 5.5% | 24.7% |
2026-10-17の分析で使用した時点財務データ。
| 期間 | 売上高 | EBITDA | 純利益 | 営業キャッシュフロー | フリーキャッシュフロー | 設備投資 | 減価償却費 | 株式報酬 | 自社株買い | 支払配当金 | 純有利子負債調達 | 投資キャッシュフロー | 財務キャッシュフロー | 期首現金 | 期末現金 | 現金および投資 | 総負債 | 営業利益率 | ROIC | WACC | ROIC−WACCスプレッド |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-12-31 | $71.6億 | $10.9億 | $3億 | $12.6億 | $4.2億 | $8.4億 | $7.1億 | $3050万 | $7500万 | $3.9億 | — | -$18.7億 | -$8.9億 | — | $7.1億 | $6.7億 | $38.2億 | 4.5% | — | 6.7% | — |
| 2017-12-31 | $74.1億 | $12.1億 | -$1.1億 | $9.4億 | $1.2億 | $8.2億 | $6.7億 | $2800万 | $0 | $2.1億 | — | -$6.7億 | $12億 | $7.1億 | $21.9億 | $21.6億 | $52.3億 | 6.3% | — | 4.6% | — |
| 2018-12-31 | $95.9億 | $16.5億 | $4.7億 | $14.1億 | $4.6億 | $9.5億 | $8.8億 | $2750万 | $0 | $3850万 | — | -$19.4億 | -$7.2億 | $21.9億 | $8.7億 | $8.5億 | $45.3億 | 9.7% | — | 6.4% | — |
| 2019-12-31 | $89.1億 | -$9500万 | -$10.7億 | $11億 | -$1.8億 | $12.7億 | $8.8億 | $2790万 | $1.5億 | $6720万 | — | -$13.6億 | -$8220万 | $8.7億 | $5.3億 | $5.2億 | $48.1億 | -12.3% | — | — | — |
| 2020-12-31 | $86.8億 | $12.4億 | $6.7億 | $15.8億 | $4.1億 | $11.7億 | $8.5億 | $1780万 | $0 | $7580万 | — | -$11.9億 | -$2.8億 | $5.3億 | $5.9億 | $12.5億 | $47.5億 | 4.8% | — | 6.6% | — |
| 2021-12-31 | $123.6億 | $32.3億 | $16.3億 | $21.9億 | $9億 | $12.9億 | $8.1億 | $2950万 | $4.1億 | $1億 | — | -$13.2億 | -$6.8億 | $5.9億 | $7.9億 | $7.7億 | $44.1億 | 20.0% | — | 6.5% | — |
| 2022-12-31 | $191.3億 | $57.5億 | $35.8億 | $39.4億 | $26.9億 | $12.5億 | $9.3億 | $2790万 | $16.7億 | $2億 | -$3.9億 | -$12.6億 | -$26.8億 | $7.9億 | $7.5億 | $7.4億 | $38.1億 | 25.0% | — | 8.4% | — |
| 2023-12-31 | $137億 | $24.8億 | $11.6億 | $24.1億 | $10億 | $14億 | $9.6億 | $3300万 | $7.6億 | $3.5億 | $7980万 | -$13.2億 | -$14.8億 | $7.5億 | $3.6億 | $3.5億 | $39.9億 | 9.8% | — | 8.1% | — |
| 2024-12-31 | $111.2億 | $15.7億 | $1.7億 | $13億 | $4740万 | $12.5億 | $10.3億 | $3180万 | $2.4億 | $2.7億 | $2.6億 | -$12.6億 | -$1.3億 | $3.6億 | $3.1億 | $2.7億 | $44.5億 | 5.6% | — | 7.4% | — |
| 2025-12-31 | $120.5億 | $24.8億 | $5.4億 | $8.2億 | -$5.3億 | $13.6億 | $10.5億 | $3070万 | $0 | $2.8億 | $6.4億 | -$13.1億 | $4.5億 | $3.1億 | $3億 | $2.8億 | $52.8億 | 6.8% | — | 5.5% | — |
The Mosaic Company (MOS) trades at 9.4x forward earnings against a peer median of 10.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 6.9x compares with a peer median of 9.3x. The comparison uses 4 peers: Corteva Inc., CF Industries Holdings Inc., Celanese Corporation and Eastman Chemical Company, as of 2026-10-17.
Management lowered FY2026 capital expenditures to $1.2B compared to $1,359.4M in FY2025; routine turnaround schedules and non-critical capital projects are deferred; high-cost conversion capacity has been idled (Faustina 100% idled, Bartow operating at 40%); and non-core assets including the Carlsbad potash mine were sold.46
The cyclical upcycle in crop nutrients is catalyzed by agricultural commodity price rallies (such as corn trading above $5.00/bushel), strong farm economics, tightening global fertilizer inventories, and raw material cost deflation. Under these conditions, phosphate stripping margins expand rapidly as realized DAP prices rise while sulfur and ammonia feedstock costs normalize, allowing producers to operate chemical plants at full capacity and generate substantial free cash flow.
The cyclical downturn is characterized by agricultural commodity price weakness, high farmer financing costs, elevated raw material input prices (sulfur settling at $705/long ton), and grower demand destruction. In Latin America, farmers faced severe affordability barriers, driving a 30% reduction in nutrient application in Brazil. This demand contraction forces producers to idle domestic conversion capacity, incur unabsorbed fixed costs, and absorb negative cash flow.
Mosaic is positioned as a primary North American and Brazilian nutrient producer navigating the cyclical trough through aggressive cost discipline, capex reduction to $1.2B, and strategic curtailment of unprofitable conversion facilities. Note that because third-party industry-wide capital expenditure benchmarks are unavailable, the cycle view is demand-led and evidence-limited regarding broader competitor reinvestment behavior, but Mosaic's internal operational posture reflects classic trough-phase capital preservation.4
A moderate conviction Hold is warranted by the deep discount to long-term replacement asset value offset by acute near-term cash burn (-$405.5M H1 2026 FCF), high balance sheet debt ($5,279.5M), and ongoing curtailments at Bartow and Faustina.34
Position risk is governed by strict capital preservation guidelines given Mosaic's substantial debt load and elevated debt weight. Portfolio exposure should be kept conservative relative to total assets. Incremental capital commitments are prohibited until Faustina is re-commissioned and free cash flow inflects to positive. Credit spreads and short-term debt refinancing covenants must be reviewed quarterly.
From a fundamental perspective, Mosaic is positioned in a cyclical trough with FY2026 operating margins troughing before expanding across FY2027 and FY2028. Fair value of $19.55 captures this mid-cycle recovery, while $18.82 leaves 3.9% upside.
From a credit and income perspective, negative free cash flow in FY2025 and ongoing total debt obligations demand caution. The dividend provides income support, but capital appreciation remains constrained until debt metrics improve.35
From an operational risk perspective, plant curtailments at Bartow and Faustina along with significant contraction in Brazilian nutrient demand create ongoing earnings uncertainty, offsetting the stability of the Potash segment.4
The Mosaic Company is rated Hold. At $18.82, the shares offer 3.9% upside to Fair value of $19.55. While Mosaic's low-cost potash operations in Saskatchewan provide durable operational ballast, the Phosphate and Fertilizantes segments remain challenged by sulfur raw material price spikes and Brazilian demand weakness.34
Management's decisive actions to lower FY2026 capex and curtail unprofitable conversion capacity protect balance sheet liquidity. However, until raw material price pressures abate and free cash flow inflects positively, risk and reward remain balanced, justifying a Hold stance.
Capture your own thesis, position size, and follow-up questions. Stays on this device, only you can see it.
The records this analysis drew on, as they stood when it was run.
Not every cited input appears here: internal calculations and intermediate model outputs have no external record, and some citations could not be matched to one.
Brazil nutrient application is projected to decline 30%, driving severe segment volume declines and domestic production idling in Brazil. An extended multi-year farm recession would suppress top-line recovery below baseline expectations.4
Total debt of $5,279.5M and a 50.4% debt weight create acute balance sheet vulnerability if free cash flow remains negative (-$534.6M in FY2025), driving credit spreads higher and escalating debt refinancing costs.235
Extended agricultural recession across Latin America driving multi-year fertilizer under-application, domestic production idling, and sustained distribution volume compression.
現在:-30% projected nutrient application decline in Brazil in 2026
警戒条件< -2.0% 5-year revenue CAGR
Persistent free cash flow deficits on $5,279.5M total debt with 50.4% debt weight triggering credit downgrades and widening debt refinancing spreads.
現在:Negative FCF of -$534.6M in FY2025 and -$405.5M in H1 2026; computed WACC 5.99%
Sustained raw material price inflation and low plant operating rates (58% in Q2 2026) driving conversion cash costs above historical norms and destroying stripping margins.
現在:$129/tonne cash conversion cost in Phosphates in Q2 2026; realized sulfur at $522/long ton and ammonia at $621/tonne
警戒条件Phosphate cash conversion cost exceeding $135/tonne sustained
Inability to sustain turnaround capex deferrals, leading to capex budget overrun and accelerated depletion of balance sheet cash.
現在:$677.1M spent in H1 2026 toward $1.2B full-year target
警戒条件Annual capex exceeding $1.25B ceiling
| high |
| Next 12-24 months |
| Preserving animal feed operations at Cajati, idling uncompetitive commodity conversion in Brazil, and targeting high-margin biologicals expansion via Mosaic Biosciences ($30M revenue guidance in Q3 at 40% gross margin).4 |
| High debt burden ($5,279.5M total debt) amid negative FCF leading to credit rating pressure | medium | Next 12 months | Refinancing short-term commercial paper into a $1B term loan and reducing FY2026 capital expenditures to $1.2B, while deferring non-critical turnaround outlays.4 |
Project EPS through the explicit advantage period, fade growth as competition catches up, and discount the full stream at cost of equity.
Apply a terminal P/E to the dated forward EPS path, then discount that future share value back to the analysis date.
Convert the revenue and margin path into after-tax free cash flow, discount the annual per-share amounts and terminal value at WACC, then adjust for signed net debt per current share.
Discounted forecast-period cash flows ($8.37) plus discounted terminal value ($46.94) minus signed per current share ($15.74) equals the $39.57 lens value shown above. Negative net debt is , so subtracting it raises value.
Add depreciation to net income, subtract maintenance capex, divide by diluted shares, and apply a normalized valuation multiple.
Project SBC-adjusted EPS, discount each year's earnings at cost of equity, then add a Gordon-growth terminal value.
Under the moderate discount rate, $5.63 comes from forecast-period earnings and $19.71 from the long-term value, totaling $25.34.
Solve for the growth rate that makes the model value equal the report-date share price.
In the Bull scenario, global sulfur supply bottlenecks resolve swiftly, driving feedstock prices sharply downward and widening phosphate conversion margins. High crop commodity prices incentivize global farmers to replenish depleted soils, driving strong fertilizer application across Brazil and North America. Faustina and Bartow resume full capacity operations, eliminating idle cost absorption penalties. Consolidated operating margins expand to peak levels, free cash flow generation accelerates significantly, and disciplined debt paydown restores balance sheet strength.4
Mosaic Fertilizantes generates over 40% of consolidated revenues ($4,847.3M in FY2025); prolonged farmer under-application undermines volume throughput and blending margins.7
Adherence to the $1.2B capex cap is essential to stem negative free cash flow (-$405.5M in H1 2026) and preserve liquidity on $5,279.5M total debt.3
Low-cost potash extraction provides the primary stable cash flow engine supporting corporate obligations during the phosphate downcycle.
| $13.31B |
| $13.71B |
| $14.05B |
| Revenue growth | 0.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% |
| Operating margin | 4.5% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Operating income | $546.86M | $1.09B | $1.33B | $1.44B | $1.48B |
| Tax rate | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% | 24.0% |
| NOPAT | $415.61M | $826.65M | $1.01B | $1.09B | $1.12B |
| Reinvestment | $62.34M | $206.66M | $303.43M | $328.16M | $336.36M |
| Reinvestment rate (of NOPAT) | 15.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Free cash flow to firm | $353.27M | $619.99M | $708.01M | $765.71M | $784.85M |
| Mosaic Fertilizantes revenue | $4.89B | $5.15B | $5.35B | $5.51B | $5.65B |
| Phosphates revenue | $3.91B | $4.12B | $4.28B | $4.41B | $4.52B |
| Potash revenue | $2.68B | $2.82B | $2.94B | $3.02B | $3.10B |
| Corporate Eliminations and Other revenue | $674.46M | $710.21M | $738.61M | $760.77M | $779.79M |
| Terminal growth | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
Mosaic's capital allocation has shifted decisively toward capital preservation and balance sheet defense. In FY2025, capital expenditures totaled $1,359.4M, exceeding operating cash flow of $824.8M and driving free cash flow to -$534.6M. In response to ongoing cash burn (-$405.5M FCF in H1 2026), management lowered FY2026 capex guidance to $1.2B, suspended discretionary share repurchases, completed the sale of the Carlsbad potash mine, and established a $1.0B term loan facility to refinance maturing short-term commercial paper. The regular quarterly dividend of $0.22 per share ($0.88 annualized) was maintained, requiring approximately $70M per quarter. With total debt at $5,279.5M (50.4% debt weight), capital allocation must remain tightly restricted to debt containment until phosphate cash conversion margins recover.
Sulfur contract settlement of $705/long ton for Q3 2026 drove Q2 cash conversion costs to $129/tonne in Phosphates and $141/tonne in Fertilizantes, creating segment operating losses of -$104M and -$41M respectively.
Elevated raw material costs compress consolidated operating margin to a trough of 4.5% in FY2026, delaying margin recovery until sulfur prices normalize.
Potash delivered $195M in operating earnings and $278M in adjusted EBITDA in Q2 2026, supported by an MOP cash production cost of $84/tonne and stable mine gate pricing of $275/tonne.
Low-cost potash extraction at Esterhazy provides a profitable cash flow anchor that shields Mosaic from corporate insolvency during phosphate downturns.
FY2026 capital expenditures are guided down to $1.2B, while routine turnaround capital expenditures are being deferred.
Restricting FY2026 reinvestment rate to 15.0% stems liquidity degradation on $5,279.5M total debt while preserving baseline productive capacity.
| マージン |
|---|
| MOS | The Mosaic Company | $6.0B | 9.4x | 0.5x | 6.9x | -5.1% | — |
| CTVA | Corteva Inc. | $8.6B | 11.4x | 1.7x | 17.3x | 4.3% | 12.8% |
| CF | CF Industries Holdings Inc. | $18.3B | 10.8x | 2.4x | 5.8x | 29.9% | 49.3% |
| CE | Celanese Corporation | $5.2B | 7.9x | 0.5x | 9.9x | -22.2% | 11.0% |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical Company | $7.1B | 9.3x | 0.8x | 8.6x | 7.3% | 12.9% |
| Adoption of Biological Solutions and Yield Enhancement Technology | positive | Rising demand for biological and nutrient efficiency technologies to enhance crop performance; Mosaic Biosciences reported $25M in Q2 sales, launched 5 products, and targets $30M in Q3 sales at 40% gross margin. |
| Secondary entry level on a meaningful discount to $19.55 | Evaluate disciplined accumulation for long-term cyclical recovery | Provides adequate margin of safety to absorb ongoing cash burn and leverage risk while capturing substantial upside upon mid-cycle margin recovery. |
| Downgrade position and model prolonged cash burn if capital discipline is compromised. |
| Brazilian Nutrient Delivery Volumes | Mosaic Fertilizantes quarterly sales volumes deteriorating further due to Latin American demand weakness | Reduce position weighting due to persistent structural volume destruction in Latin America. |
| Free Cash Flow Generation | Consolidated free cash flow remaining substantially negative through the second half of the year | Re-examine consolidated solvency and model higher discount rate. |
